MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (3/29/2026)

March 29, 2026

Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (3/29/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Pete Alonso, Matt Olson, and Yordan Alvarez.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Thank heavens baseball is back; it was too long without it, and now we are full swing. Opening Day went well for me, and I hope I can continue to capitalize on some great spots throughout the league. We are getting into teams' third and fourth pitchers, which is where we start to see guys who aren't as great, and have spots we can exploit.

The first week of the season is always the toughest, so make sure to go lighter until we get more data. In this post, we'll look at my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate, as well as a longshot bet. One of the best ways to play home run props is to play them in a round-robin format at a small unit size. That strategy sets up bigger wins if more than one of these players goes yard.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Sunday, March 29, 2026. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (3/29/2026)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Sunday, March 29.

Pete Alonso OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+250 Fanatics)

The Baltimore Orioles have split their first two games of the season against the Minnesota Twins, and Pete Alonso is still looking for his first regular-season home run for the Orioles. He is going to find himself in an elite spot here against Bailey Ober. Ober gave up 30 home runs last season, with 13 of them coming against RHH.

Even with less than half of them coming against RHH, the advanced stats have shown righties are crushing him. The RHH is putting up ridiculous numbers, including a .509 SLG, .234 ISO, with a 16.2% Barrel%, and a 48.6% HardHit%. Ober could be in trouble, especially with winds up in the 13 mph range.

Pete Alonso, on the other hand, hit RHP really well last season to the tune of 29 home runs. He has been off to a slow start in his first two games of the season, but I think this spot against Ober makes for a great spot to get a homer in. Against RHP last, he was hitting a SLG of .567, an ISO of .275, with an absurd Barrel% of 22.6%, and a 56.3% HardHit%.

The odds are pretty low for a home run bet, but I think this is one of the best spots on the slate for a homer to happen!

Matt Olson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+375 Fanatics)

Atlanta completed a crazy comeback that was completed with Dominic Smith launching a grand slam walk-off. They are 2-0 to start the season and now will look to finish the series with a sweep. They are lining up against Seth Lugo, who had a decent season but had some home run issues.

Lugo had a major issue going against lefties last season, and with six of them in the lineup, I could see it being a problem for him in his first game of the season. Last season, LHH put up some big numbers, including 21 homers that had him at a .521 SLG, .241 ISO, with a 14% Barrel%, and a 47.7% HardHit%.

I had a hard time choosing which lefty to go with, but I settled on Matt Olson. But I do think Drake Baldwin is a very good option as well. Olson had some strong stats against righties last season and has five hard hits of 95 mph or more against Lugo in nine ABs.

Mighty Matt 💥 pic.twitter.com/roaQfuKUyk

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) March 11, 2026

It was a good year for Olson last season, which had him hitting 22 homers against RHP. To go along with that, he hit for a SLG of .485, an ISO of .219, a Barrel% of 17.4%, and a HardHit% of 53.7%.

The wind is blowing in around 9-10 mph, so that does hurt us a little bit, but I think the matchup against Lugo makes for a great spot that I just can't pass up.

Yordan Alvarez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300 DraftKings)

The Astros were able to get their first win of the season against their AL West rivals, the Angels. It took an eight-run 6th inning to get the job done. Yordan Alvarez had a short 2025 due to injury, but is already off to a solid start with 3 hits and a homer in 11 ABs. He is one of only two lefties in the lineup for the Astros, which makes him the focal point in the offense against righties.

He is getting a great matchup against Jack Kochanowicz. Kochanowicz was someone I targeted a lot for home runs last year; he gave up 21 home runs, with 17 of them coming against LHH. He is giving up a .536 SLG, .226 ISO, with a 12.5% Barrel% and a 52.7% HardHit%. Yordan has played one game against him and had two hard hits of 95+ mph.

Kochanowicz primarily throws the slider and changeup, which Alvarez hit well last season in limited time. With a 2.25 HR/9 against lefties this season, this is a prime spot for one of the few lefties in the lineup to get one out into the stands.

Jonathan Aranda OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+490 Fanatics)

I put in Jonathan Aranda in our RotoBaller Discord yesterday, and it didn't quite pan out as he was walked twice and had a hit in his five ABs. But I think he is still in a good spot, and one that is even better with him going against Dustin May in this one.

Dustin May was pretty awful last season, finishing with just over a 5 ERA. It didn't work out with both the Dodgers and the Red Sox, and now he finds himself on the Cardinals. Last season against lefties, he had a 1.82 HR/9 to go along with a .495 SLG, .233 ISO, with a 12.5% Barrel% and a 44.7 HardHit%.

Aranda had a solid season last year that resulted in 14 home runs and 111 hits. 13 of those home runs came against RHP last year, and he leads the team in both Barrel% and HardHit% with a 18.2% and 56% against righties. Aranda already has one home run on the season, so don't be surprised when he has another one to his total early on.

Longshot: Otto Kemp OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+585 DraftKings)

This is an interesting spot, I'm excited to see MacKenzie Gore play for the Rangers, as I think this is a good place for him to expand on his arsenal and gain more experience. That being said, he was susceptible to home runs last season, specifically to righties, where he gave up 15 home runs.

Otto Kemp only played a little bit last year, but had quite a bit of success against lefties last year, where he had a SLG of .448, an ISO of .224, a Barrel% of 12.8%, and a HardHit% of 56.4%. That HardHit% is really what catches my eye; it is in very limited ABs, but it does lead the team against RHP.

Here's a look at Otto Kemp's 3-R HR yesterday.

Six of his eight hits this spring are either doubles or HRs so the slug is there.

Just needs to clean up the swing and miss. He has struck out 14 times in 38 at-bats.

📹 MLB #Phillies pic.twitter.com/LhVbPUq7Xn

— Cory Nidoh (@Cory_Nidoh) March 17, 2026

This is definitely more of a longshot play as Kemp is likely to bat towards the bottom of the lineup, but with the wind blowing out, and a lefty on the mound that is giving up a 12.8% Barrel% and a 44.8% HardHit. I don't mind a small bet on him here at all to go yard in his first game of the season.

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