RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 190
CURRENT ADP: ~211 overall
ANALYSIS: In 2021, Sandoval made some major adjustments to his pitch mix. He had thrown just 76 innings in the big leagues prior to last season, about half of those innings coming in 2019 with the other half coming in 2020. During those two stints, Sandoval leaned heavily on his four-seam fastball, throwing the pitch 46.4% of the time in 2019 and 44.6% of the time in 2020. Last year, Sandoval only relied on his four-seamer 24.3% of the time. It wasn’t even his most-thrown pitch in 2021. That honor went to the pitch that became his most effective offering, his changeup. He threw his dominant change piece 29.6% of the time and it generated a 51.4% whiff rate while batters hit just .139 against it.
The primary stat that has all the fantasy pundits drooling over Sandoval this offseason is swinging strikes. Sandoval ranked in truly elite company in swinging-strike rate over the season as a whole last year. His 15.2% swinging strike rate put him right alongside aces such as Max Scherzer (15.9%) and Robbie Ray (15.5%).
Bottom line: After you’ve built the nucleus of your offense and the front end of your rotation, Sandoval should be on the shortlist of top targets for you. Anyone you’ll be drafting in the double-digit rounds comes with risks and concerns and Sandoval’s risks and concerns are much smaller than other starters in the same ADP range. At the very best, he could be a “Robbie Ray light” in 2022 and at the very worst (apart from injury), he’ll be a matchup-dependent starter who should give you a boost in strikeouts each time out.
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