RADIO
Welcome fantasy friends and foes to my unveiling of "Who is this Year's Breakout Tight End?"
A productive fantasy tight end provides a definite advantage during any week. Avoiding the tight ends after the big three of Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, and George Kittle can make winning an uphill battle. Fantasy managers must realize that every position is critical to winning a championship, so ignoring the position is intolerable. Do the research and find the diamond in the rough, not a tight end just to get by so you can fill a lineup spot.
There is plenty of fantasy buzz about the New Orleans Saints offense coming into this season. Who will be the starter at quarterback, Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston? How will the Saints' weapons produce without the future Hall of Famer Drew Brees behind center? Speaking of offensive weapons, who will step up outside of Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas? The Saints were the fifth-highest scoring offense last season and will need to continue on a similar path to keep pace with the Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South. One potential candidate who can make a leap in this offense is TE Adam Trautman. Let's break down the chances Trautman can be a breakout tight end in fantasy.
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Strong Finish to Rookie Season
One of the most intriguing offensive components for the Saints this season will be the 2020 third-round pick tight end Adam Trautman. Trautman had an outstanding college career at Dayton, where he secured the most receptions (178), yards (2,295), and touchdowns (31) among all tight ends in the 2020 draft class.
Trautman arrived in New Orleans with high expectations after his spectacular senior season at Dayton. He recorded 70 receptions with 916 yards and 14 touchdowns for the Flyers.
His rookie year saw Trautman sit behind veteran Jared Cook for most of the season and see only 37% of the team snaps. Instead, the rookie tight end was utilized as the TE2 and contributed 15 receptions on 16 targets for 171 yards and one touchdown.
Trautman did show promise with a 93% catch rate and zero drops. His blocking ability earned more time on the field during the second half of the season. He ended up starting five out of the last eight regular-season games.
His long-term projections seem promising, and Trautman is projected to have a much more significant role as a receiver option in 2021.
The Departure of Jared Cook
The New Orleans Saints let Jared Cook walk via free agency, and he ended up signing with the Los Angeles Chargers. The Saints showed a ton of confidence in Trautman, and now he is set up to take the next step forward to make an impact at tight end for the team.
In 2020, Cook recorded 37 receptions on 60 targets for 504 yards and a team-high seven touchdowns. His 60 targets ranked third on the team, and he finished as fantasy's TE12 last season.
The Saints also lost their No.2 wide receiver, Emmanuel Sanders, who signed with the Buffalo Bills during the offseason.
There are 142 lost targets in the Saints' offense, with Cook and Sanders changing addresses. Some of that slack should be taken over by Michael Thomas, who had what amounts to a lost season in 2020.
Thomas only played in seven games last season, collecting 40 receptions on 55 targets for 438 yards and zero touchdowns. However, even when Thomas was on the field, he did not look like anything remotely close to the wide receiver who led the league in receptions the previous two seasons.
Trautman has zero competition for the starting TE gig. Instead, he will look to establish himself as the number three option behind Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara in the Saints' offense. The sophomore tight end should get many more looks, with the team limited in other receiving options.
The QB Dilemma
The million-dollar question for the Saints is who will be the quarterback of this offense-Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston? If Hill wins the job to replace future Hall-of-Famer Drew Bress, we will see more running plays, especially with Hill toting the rock and a limited passing attack. With Winston, head coach Sean Payton will have a pass-happy QB who threw for a league-leading 5,109 yards just two seasons ago for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
For fantasy managers, Winston winning the job would be ideal for the fantasy production of the entire offense. Michael Thomas will revert to his 2018-2019 form and be the go-to receiving option for Winston, but he can't do it alone. Trautman will have a high ceiling and will get plenty of looks as the second-best downfield target.
Unfortunately, a Hill-led offense will present a low floor for Trautman and relegate the former Dayton Flyer to be a mediocre tight end that will be a touchdown-dependent weekly option.
Michael Thomas is out again
Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network is reporting that All-Pro WR Michael Thomas will likely miss the start of the 2021 regular season because of ankle surgery he had in June. Thomas will need four months to recover, which projects him to miss multiple weeks of the 2021 season.
Thomas is one of the most dominant offensive players in the game, and the Saints were counting on the former Buckeye on a bounce-back season in 2021, especially considering the uncertainty at the quarterback position.
With Thomas now out to start this season, the Saints have the weakest wideout group in the league. The Saints will line up Tre'Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway, and Deonte Harris at wide receiver where the lack of depth quality has to be a significant concern. However, there are reports that the Saints have been exploring the free-agent market for a veteran wide receiver.
Will Trautman Shine?
The new-look Saints offense kicks off 2021 without one of the league's best wide receivers. The obvious solution is to run the offense through Alvin Kamara, but he can't do it all by himself. Latavius Murray will help but this injury situation provides a wide-open opportunity for Trautman to be a huge beneficiary and provide an increase in fantasy production.
Sean Payton will need to diversify the offense and he should look to Trautman after losing so many contributors from last season. Trautman should become a high-volume reception option for the quarterback. He will have more opportunities especially in the red zone where Cook has led the team in end zone targets the past two seasons. Additionally, we will see more drop-offs for Trautman with the tight end lining up on the inline and defenses focused on stopping Kamara.
The projections are that Thomas will miss up to the first eight games of the season, which gives Trautman the ideal window to prove himself as a reliable target and fantasy producer. Plus, what will Thomas look like when he gets back? Who else can step up in the Saints' offense?
There are plenty of questions with Saints offense as we head into this season, and their defense has been severely depleted this offseason. We could see more shootouts in New Orleans this season, which will help boost the number of targets for the Saints' offensive weapons.
The Verdict
Adam Trautman is the best bet to be the 2021 fantasy breakout tight end. The former third-round pick has a clear path to targets in a Saints offense lacking receiving options.
He stands 6'5" and will be an elite red-zone threat. His expanded role should lend itself to a breakout that will make him a stud currently being drafted as the TE22.
My initial projection placed Adam Trautman as a top-12 TE but I believe the Michael Thomas injury news provides the ideal opportunity for Trautman to climb up to a top ten TE in 2021. Trautman will be on plenty of fantasy championship rosters in 2021.
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