Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - Week 16

December 23, 2020

Fantasy football risers and fallers heading into Week 16 of the NFL season. Jason looks at recent changes in fantasy values including lineup starts and sits.

Whether due to their own play, the play of others, or injuries, players' stock increases and decreases on a weekly basis. Perhaps more than any other, the NFL is a league that experiences ups and downs at a rapid pace. With only 16 games, there’s little room for error and seemingly endless opportunities for improvement. The same goes for fantasy football; managing rosters effectively is key to winning that championship.

Throughout the season, players get hot and see an increased role while others struggle and fight to stay relevant. Experienced fantasy players know this happens every year. In this weekly column, we’ll showcase those who have taken important steps forward and those who have taken steps back.

These are the key risers and fallers heading into Week 16 of the NFL season.

Week 16 Fantasy Football Risers

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

As this is the final column of the season, all eyes are on securing that fantasy championship. Baker Mayfield, like every player you will find on this list, has a smash setup for Week 16 at the Jets. Mayfield has been much improved over the past month, averaging about 25 fantasy points per game. Matchups don't get much easier than this one. With the Browns having their sights set on stealing the division from the fading Steelers and the Jets coming off what will be their lone win of the season, this is a perfect spot for Mayfield to dominate.

Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team

A tight end with double digit fantasy points in four straight games? A tight end that just saw 15 targets with one of the worst quarterbacks of the past decade? Logan Thomas has become immune to bad quarterback play and immune to matchup. He's a locked in TE1 and a must start. The Panthers are up next and they are one of the worst teams in the NFL at defending the tight end.

Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons

I imagine Julio Jones will be shut down for the season, which leaves Russell Gage as the 1b to Calvin Ridley's 1a. Over his past three games, Gage has seen 25 total targets and scored 15 fantasy points in each. Next up is a road game against the Chiefs where the Falcons will undoubtedly see negative game script and have to throw (not that they could run if they wanted to). Gage is a strong start this week.

Tyron Johnson, Los Angeles Chargers

With both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams questionable to play and possibly limited if they do, Tyron Johnson has proven he's the next man up for Justin Herbert. Johnson has posted back to back games of at least 55 yards and a touchdown. The Chargers get a decimated Broncos' secondary in Los Angeles this week. With Herbert looking to close out the season strong and solidify his rookie of the year trophy, he will lean on Johnson without his top two targets.

Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys

There's a reason that all week, I told anyone who asked a start/sit question involving Ezekiel Elliott to bench Zeke, but once he was ruled out, I declared Tony Pollard a must start RB1. The gap in talent between Pollard and Zeke is a chasm. Hopefully, Elliott does not play this week (or ever again for the Cowboys). Pollard is so vastly superior that it's difficult to even quantify it. Pollard was the overall RB1 last week and the Cowboys' offense is finally getting on track. Their season, somehow, is not over and in a must win game at home, Pollard will shine if he gets the start.

Salvon Ahmed, Miami Dolphins

The most unpredictable backfield in the NFL just got some clarity. With Myles Gaskin unable to return, Salvon Ahmed came back and was immediately thrust into every down back duties. Ahmed carried the ball 22 times for 122 yards. The Raiders are up next and they are quite bad against the run. I see no reason why Ahmed won't be the primary back again.

Week 16 Fantasy Football Fallers

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

How many teams are better than the Steelers right now? It actually may be easier to answer how many teams the Steelers are better than. The list isn't that long. The reason why? Ben Roethlisberger is done. He is coming off back to back games under 200 passing yards against two weak pass defenses. Big Ben has nothing left. The Steelers are going to limp into the postseason and get bounced first round. It doesn't matter who they play. Roethlisberger closes the season at home against a tough Colts Defense. There is no hope for him.

Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings

It pains me to put Adam Thielen here because of how much I love him. He's so talented, but the Vikings just don't like to call pass plays. Despite negative game script for almost the entire game last week, Thielen went drive after drive after drive without so much as a target. He did not catch a pass after his early touchdown on busted coverage. Thielen hasn't hit double digit fantasy points in two straight games and he ends the season against the Saints' strong pass defense. Justin Jefferson has taken over as the preferred passing game option. You probably can't bench Thielen, but he's not the WR1 he was early in the season.

James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers

I typically don't knock guys for getting hurt, but this more because of how much better at football Benny Snell is than James Conner. Whether Conner plays this week is irrelevant - you can't start him. Conner is the quintessential replacement level back. There is nothing remotely special about him. He's a great kid with a great story, but as a football player, he's just not that good. Snell was one of the lone bright spots in the Steelers' embarrassing loss to the Bengals on Monday night and earned the praise of Mike Tomlin. Even if Conner plays, we are going to see a lot of Snell this week.

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