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Rishi Patel looks at the projected fantasy football production for the 2020 Green Bay Packers to identify potential values and busts.
The Green Bay Packers had a terrific 2019 season under rookie head coach Matt LeFleur. The team posted a 13-3 record (best since 2011) and reached the playoffs for the first time since 2016 (an oddity during Aaron Rodgers’ tenure, but that’s considering his collarbone injury in 2017). Nevertheless, two of the four losses Green Bay endured were blowouts at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers, the team who ultimately ended their season.
With Aaron Rodgers on the back end of his career (will be 37 in December), the Packers headed into the offseason needing to bolster their offense with weapons so they can finally reach the Super Bowl again. Instead, the Packers’ brass pulled off the unthinkable: draft Rodgers’ heir apparent instead in Utah State QB Jordan Love. This was arguably the most shocking pick in the entire 2020 draft and was met with frenzy and an abundance of reactions.
Now, Green Bay heads into 2020 still lacking proven WRs and will instead have a rookie QB warming the bench. There’s no reason for Aaron Rodgers to get nervous now, as Love probably won’t start anytime soon. Is the Packers’ offense that underpowered without any notable draft additions? Let’s find out and see what the fantasy value of Packers players are.
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Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers had an up-and-down fantasy season last year, and can generally be considered lower in fantasy value now than he once was. In fact, he is just a brand name now, as his fantasy stats lost a bit of luster last season.
The Cal product finished with 4,002 pass yards, 26 touchdowns, four picks, seven yards per attempt, 250.1 pass yards per game, a 95.4 quarterback rating, 183 rush yards, and one touchdown. The 36-year-old had 114 bad throws and a 21.2 percent poor throws per pass attempt rate.
He finished 10th among fantasy QBs last season after he came in sixth in 2018. Rodgers finished with the fourth-highest bad throws among NFL QBs, the highest percentage of poor throws per pass attempt rate, and 16th in the percentage of on-target throws per pass attempt rate (74.7%). The QB also finished 21st in completion percentage (62.0%), 11th in pass yards, 17th in yards per attempt, 16th in pass yards per game, and 16th in rush yards.
The pluses were the longtime Packers’ QB finished tied for eighth in pass touchdowns and ranked 37th in picks.
Rodgers is no longer an elite, top-three or top-five fantasy QB like he was from 2014-2016; however, he still is a generational talent and can provide huge numbers. The lack of weapons and his rankings from last year among NFL QBs obviously hurts his fantasy value for 2020. Still, consider Aaron a low-end QB1 in redraft, and don’t hesitate to take him as your QB1 in leagues with 10-12 teams.
Running Back
In his third season, running back Aaron Jones broke out in a huge way, which helped lead some fantasy owners to championships last season through those elite stats. The 25-year-old had 236 rush attempts, 1,084 rush yards, 16 rush touchdowns, 4.6 rush yards per attempt, 67.8 rush yards per game, 68 targets, 49 receptions, 474 receiving yards, and three touchdowns. The UTEP product also had 2.2 rush yards after contact per rush, 32 broken tackles, and 72.2 percent of rushes inside the 5.
Jones recorded career-highs in rush attempts, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, rushing yards per attempt, targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. The third-year player finished third among fantasy backs last year after finishing 23rd in 2018 and 50th in 2017. He ranked 15th in rush attempts among NFL RBs, 12th in rush yards, tied for first in rush touchdowns, 14th in rush yards per attempt, and 14th in rush yards per game. Coming off a big season, Jones sits as the RB1 in Green Bay and is a solid RB1 in redraft leagues of 10-12 teams.
The Packers also drafted A.J. Dillon out of Boston College. The 22-year-old played three seasons of college ball in Boston and accumulated 220+ rush attempts, 1,100+ rush yards, and double-digit rush touchdowns in all those campaigns.
The Connecticut native is a workhorse back who is not easily tackled due to his size (6’0”, 247 lbs). He can also power through for those extra yards. When looking at Dillon’s fantasy value, it is important to consider he will likely have a small role for this season because he is a rookie and there is the presence of Aaron Jones. Though he could show flashes of potential, his touches likely won’t be consistent. Therefore, consider him as depth only in redraft leagues.
Finally, Jamaal Williams rounds out this depth chart as the “pass-catching back.” The 25-year-old appeared in 14 games last season and had 107 rushes, 460 rush yards, one rush touchdown, 4.3 rush yards per attempt, 32.9 rush yards per game, 45 targets, 39 receptions, 253 receiving yards, and five receiving touchdowns. The BYU product also had 7.2 yards after catch per reception. Overall, the California native has played a complementary role in this Green Bay backfield, which has not led to incredible stats during his three-year career.
He finished 36th among fantasy RBs last season after coming 46th in 2018 and 29th in 2017. Consider Jamaal Williams as depth only in redraft fantasy leagues because of his role as a pass-catching back, a secondary role to Aaron Jones on this unit.
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams is the only receiver you need to know on this unit and he’s a stud in fantasy. That’s it for this section…. Okay, I’m just kidding, but that first statement is true. Davante Adams is easily the best receiver on this unit and the only fantasy-relevant one.
The team didn’t scoop up any wideouts during the draft despite their dire need for one (they literally took a QB, RB, and TE though). Nevertheless, this bodes well for the incredible target share, opportunities, and fantasy potential the Fresno State product will have in 2020 considering the lack of fierce competition and his robust chemistry with Rodgers.
Despite playing only 12 games in 2019 (turf toe injury), the 27-year-old still led the WRs unit in receptions, targets, yards, and touchdowns by a landslide. Adams compiled 83 receptions, 127/573 targets (22.2%), 997 yards, 12 yards per catch, five touchdowns, and 83.1 yards per game.
Because of his injury, Adams’ rankings may be a bit skewed among all wideouts as some played 16 games. He finished 29th among receivers in fantasy. Among NFL pass-catchers, the 2014 pick finished tied for 18th in receptions, 17th in targets, 30th in yards, and fifth in yards per game.
With no other receiver or tight end Aaron Rodgers can rely on as much, expect Adams to have a fantastic campaign in 2020 if he can play all 16 games. He is expected to have an immense target share and plenty of opportunities in the red-zone. He’s a top-three fantasy wideout in redraft and don’t hesitate to pick him up as your WR1 and your first or second pick in drafts.
Allen Lazard, Devin Funchess, and Marquez Valdez-Scantling round out the top four receivers on this depth chart, but none are expected to be a good fantasy option, at least heading into the season. The now third-year Lazard had a better sophomore season in 2019, but it wasn’t fantastic by any means. The 24-year-old stockpiled 35 receptions, 52/573 targets (9.1%), 477 yards, 13.6 yards per catch, and three touchdowns.
The Iowa State product finished 68th among fantasy receivers. Heading into 2020, Lazard should be considered the WR2 on the team. Since Aaron Rodgers can’t throw to Davante Adams all the time, Lazard could see a few passes thrown his way. You can take a chance on him late in drafts and stash him as depth in large redraft leagues.
The same applies to Devin Funchess, who joins the Packers after a one-year “stint” on the Colts. The longtime Panther suffered a collarbone injury during his brief tenure with Indy last season and only managed to play one game while getting 32 yards on the season.
The 6’4”, 206-pound Valdez-Scantling had a chance to shine last season but didn’t fare much better than Allen Lazard. The 2018 pick regressed during his second year, grabbing 26 receptions, 56/573 targets (9.8%), 452 yards, 17.4 yards per catch, and two touchdowns in 16 games. Like Lazard and Funchess, Valdez-Scantling is nothing more than a piece to fill out your roster in large redraft leagues.
For Lazard, Funchess, and Valdez-Scantling, they don’t hold much fantasy value heading into the 2020 season. Considering Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have many proven players to throw to aside from Davante Adams, there is a chance one of these receivers could emerge as a fantasy sleeper. However, it’s too soon to tell who it could be. Monitor the performances of all three receivers as the season progresses, and if any happens to be putting up some decent numbers weekly, snatch them off the waiver wire (if available).
Tight End
Jimmy Graham bolted from Green Bay in the offseason only to go to the division rivals directly south, the Chicago Bears. This means there is a hole in the TEs depth chart as there are no proven players on the unit anymore. 2019 pick Jace Sternberger, rookie Josiah Deguara, and veteran Marcedes Lewis now comprise this unit.
Sternberger played six games last season and could only accumulate ONE TARGET on the season.
The 36-year-old Lewis played all 16 games in his second season with Green Bay last year and managed 15 receptions, 19/573 targets (3.3%), 156 yards, 10.4 yards per catch, and one touchdown.
Meanwhile, third-round pick Josiah Deguara played four seasons for Cincinnati and his best season was his final one in 2019. The 23-year-old appeared in 13 games and accumulated 39 receptions, 504 yards, 12.9 yards per catch, and seven touchdowns.
All three of these tight ends are either unproven or will likely not provide consistent fantasy numbers, so it’s best to avoid this unit in drafts.
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