Deeper PPR Sleepers: Running Back (RB) Draft Values

August 26, 2014

Evan Okulanis analyzes 2014 fantasy football PPR sleepers for NFL running backs (RBs) in deeper leagues. Read about fantasy football draft advice, rankings and sleepers here.

When you're analyzing ADPs to prepare your fantasy football draft strategy, identifying preseason risers/fallers, sleepers, potential busts, and knowing which rookies to pounce on or stay away from is of the utmost importance. Today we are here to try and help out with running backs for deeper PPR leagues, and to make sure that your fantasy football teams are prepared in the later rounds of those deeper league drafts.

Potential Running Back Draft Values & PPR Sleepers

In this article, we look around the NFL and provide player analysis on some 2014 fantasy football PPR sleeper running backs for deeper leagues. As we make our way through the first three weeks of NFL preseason play, these are some deep running back sleepers to consider on fantasy football draft day in ppr leagues. We’ve considered these RBs because of their potential fantasy return, based on your draft-day investment and their current ADPs.

All ADPs taken from MyFantasyLeague.

 
Lance Dunbar, RB - DAL (Current ADP: 166)

When we’re headlining an article with Lance Dunbar, you know that we’re really digging for gold here.  Dunbar is an impressive athlete coming from a smaller School, North Texas.  He went undrafted primarily due to him being just 5’8 and under 200 pounds.

Going into his third season with the Cowboys this year, he’s finally entrenched himself into the backfield as a possible game-breaking change of pace back. In the two games in which Dunbar saw major action this past year, he rushed for well over 6 yards per carry and caught 3 balls.  He did suffer a pretty serious knee injury that required surgery to repair some ligaments, and coupled with previous hamstring injuries, he's definitely an injury risk. I’m still buying him as a great sleeper in deep PPR leagues for all these reasons:

• DeMarco Murray’s injury history - Murray has missed 10 games in his 3 year career so far, and due to his aggressive running style, is almost a virtual lock to be on the injury report this coming year.  While Joe Randle should see the early down work in the event of a Murray absence, this locks Dunbar into a 3rd down role as a possible PPR monster.
• The word of mouth - Cowboys beat writers, new coordinator Scott Linehan, and running backs coach Larry Brown have all thrown praise on Lance Dunbar, and expect him to have a major role in the Cowboys offense this year in order to bring more explosion on the field as well as give DeMarco Murray less looks in an effort to keep him healthy.  Larry Brown has also said that he envisions Dunbar being used in the slot for quick passes in order to give him some space to move.
• Scott Linehan - A new offensive coordinator means a new offense.  Linehan comes from Detroit, where Reggie Bush and Joique Bell totaled 390 carries and 107 catches this past year in a pass first offense.  While Bush had 60 more carries, Bell received a consistent amount of work, and each were utilized in just about every aspect of the game.  Dunbar won’t come close to Murray’s work, as his injury history, size and experience are working against him.  However, having Scott Linehan as the coordinator improves Dunbar’s stock.
• The Cowboys defense - Dallas’ defense was an epic disaster this past year, and might be even worse this year.  Tony Romo is going to have to throw the ball over 40 times on more than one occasion.  Murray caught 53 balls this past year, which shows that the Cowboys heavily utilize their running backs in the passing and screen games.  Dunbar should see some of those targets in order to give Murray a break, and he also may be better suited for them as well due to his speed and shiftiness.

Bottom Line: While I’m not expecting a massive breakout for Lance Dunbar, he’s a great late round sleeper in deep PPR leagues.  I expect him to become a key cog in a Dallas offense that is going to be quietly explosive this year.  It’s not completely out of this world that he approaches 1000 total yards if Murray suffers an injury and misses a chunk of time.

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Darren McFadden, RB - OAK (Current ADP: 131) 

Darren McFadden has ruined so many fantasy seasons these past years (including one of mine), that it’s understandable if people are finally shying away from the hype.

These past 2 years were a mess for McFadden, as he averaged just 3.3 yards per carry, missed 10 games, and scored just 4 touchdowns.  It would be foolish to spend an early round pick on someone who isn’t expected to be a starter, has been constantly injured and has produced at an extremely inconsistent rate.

After all this, I’m still buying McFadden this year as a low risk high reward player in the late rounds, especially in PPR.  A lot of his value hinges on him being healthy. As a starter, it’s impossible to rely on him, but as a RB4, it’s a decent gamble for someone that is so explosive and great as a pass catcher.

McFadden has had a strong camp behind Maurice Jones-Drew, and has firmly planted himself as the second running back in the depth chart ahead of intriguing (but not ready yet) Latavius Murray. Like with Dunbar, I’ll delve into a few reasons why I believe in McFadden as a nice sleeper this year with big potential:

• Pass catching - McFadden has averaged over 3 catches per game, and almost 10 yards per catch.  Jones-Drew is no longer a bell-cow, and while he’s also excellent on third down, McFadden will be used strictly as a target in the backfield on multiple plays per game, as he’s their best game-breaking player.
• Jones-Drew’s workload - Maurice Jones-Drew is 29, has well over 2000 touches in his career, and is extremely undersized.  He’s looked healthy and quick this preseason, but as the season wears on, it’s going to be in the best interest of the Raiders to rotate their running backs to keep them both fresh and and as healthy as possible.

Bottom Line: I’m not buying McFadden as a starter this year in the draft (no one should), but I’d take a gamble on him as a RB4 with high upside.  He should receive goal line work, could catch a ton of passes (Schaub gave Foster 110 in two seasons), and could receive upwards of 12-15 touches a game in an offense that should heavily focus on the run as long as the game is within reach.  When healthy, he could provide consistent flex value as a sleeper in PPR leagues.

LeGarrette Blount, RB - PIT (Current ADP: 161)

Blount had somewhat of a revival this past year under Bill Belichick.  After falling out of favor with Tampa Bay, Blount was used in a rotation with Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden, rushing for over 700 yards with 7 TDs and a 5 YPC.  Now with Pittsburgh, Blount is still expected to be a major piece of the Steelers rushing attack behind LeVeon Bell.

Blount has enjoyed an above average preseason in which he actually outgained starter LeVeon Bell.  I don’t expect Blount to be a factor in the passing game and on third downs, but I wanted to include Blount as a deep sleeper even though Dunbar and McFadden are better suited for PPR leagues. Bell himself has stated that he expects Blount to receive a majority of the goal line work. Also, during the dress rehearsal with the Eagles, Blount and Bell actually received a near equal workload with the first team offense.  I expect Bell to heavily outcarry Blount by the end of the year, but the usage signifies that the Steelers will be heavily using Blount quite often as an early down, short yardage and goal line back.

While Bell has the size, he’s not the typical power back that grinds for short bursts, so that heavy work will be left for Blount.  A suspension is looming over Blount, but I don’t expect that to happen until next year.  We would estimate about 8 carries per game, which would translate to 130+ carries, a number that may increase considering his above average preseason. He should approach his 7 touchdowns of last year, giving him great value not just as a handcuff, but as a spot starter as well in deep leagues.