Fantasy Baseball Breakouts and Resurgent Hitters - Are They For Real? (Week 16)

July 13, 2026

Joey analyzes five fantasy baseball breakouts and hitter resurgences in Week 16 of the 2026 season. These batters are off to hot starts, but are they real fantasy breakouts to stay?

Welcome back to the Week 16 edition of our Fantasy Baseball Breakouts and Resurgent Hitters. This is the column where we take a closer look at hitters who are bouncing back or breaking out. It's a good way to help stay ahead of the competition by continuing to bolster your fantasy baseball teams.

For this week, we will dive into five hitters with very different profiles. We will look at a few hitters showing massive signs of breaking out early in their careers and one resurgent hitter posting elite numbers at the plate again. All five hitters on this list are trending up and could be here to stay moving forward.

Are these five hitters for real? Let's dive in and find out.

Esmerlyn Valdez, 1B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

There is no hitter hotter in baseball right now than Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Esmerlyn Valdez. The Pirates' No. 9 prospect is slashing .309/.371/.713 with 10 home runs, six doubles, one triple, and 27 RBI in his first 28 career games in the majors. He continues to hit the ball well and is batting an impressive .393 with 13 extra-base hits (eight home runs) and 21 RBI over his last 16 contests.

Valdez simply can't be stopped at the plate right now. He has hit four home runs and driven in 10 runs in his last four games, which included hitting a combined three home runs with eight RBI in both of Pittsburgh's doubleheader victories over the Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday. In just 94 career at-bats, the 22-year-old has emerged as an elite fantasy option.

And there's reason to believe that he can continue to be a strong fantasy option moving forward.

ESMERLYN VALDEZ ... AGAIN 🤯

This is his third home run today! pic.twitter.com/JbFryeAB0F

— MLB (@MLB) July 11, 2026

Although Valdez won't be hitting this well the rest of the season, he can still provide solid all-around numbers. He has a .380 xwOBA, a .598 expected slugging, a 92 mph average exit velocity, a 52.7% hard-hit rate, a 40% launch angle sweet-spot rate, and a 75 mph bat speed. All six of those metrics currently rank at the very top of the league.

The Pirates outfielder has the tools to remain a top fantasy outfielder. He hit 26 home runs with 86 RBI in his last full Minor League season in 2025 and has already shown his potential in the big leagues. Valdez should be rostered in all leagues right now.

Royce Lewis, 3B, Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins third baseman Royce Lewis has always been a decent fantasy player when healthy. He hit .309 with 15 home runs, 52 RBI, and six stolen bases across 58 games in 2023, belted 16 home runs with 47 RBI across 82 games in 2024, and had 13 home runs with 52 RBI and 12 stolen bases across 106 games in 2025.

The problem for Lewis, though, has been the inability to stay healthy. He has played more than 100 games just once in his career, and his injuries always seem to happen when he is finally starting to heat up.

This season, the Twins slugger has stayed relatively healthy. He has only had one stint on the injured list and continues to see consistent at-bats in Minnesota's lineup. Since being recalled from Triple-A St. Paul on June 6, Lewis is slashing .266/.328/.500 with seven home runs, eight doubles, and 16 RBI over his last 32 games. He has also launched two home runs over his last four contests.

While Lewis is showing signs of a resurgent season of sorts, it's hard to fully trust him as a long-term fantasy option. For starters, there will always be injury concerns with the 27-year-old. Additionally, his underlying metrics don't offer much optimism. His xwOBA (.307), expected batting average against (.224), and expected slugging (.394) all rank in the bottom half of the league.

Outside of his strong barrel rate (13.2%) and bat speed (74.5 mph), his metrics suggest that his recent numbers at the plate are not for real.

A.J. Ewing, 2B/OF, New York Mets

New York Mets outfielder A.J. Ewing is starting to get more comfortable at the plate. After hitting .250 with two home runs, four doubles, nine RBI, and seven stolen bases in his first 33 career games, Ewing has posted much better numbers since mid-June. The rookie is batting .310 with five home runs, five doubles, 15 RBI, and two stolen bases over his last 24 games.

First career leadoff homer for Ewing! 😤 pic.twitter.com/rMaw14YK4L

— New York Mets (@Mets) July 8, 2026

Ewing is really in a groove offensively heading into the All-Star break. He recently had a four-hit game against the Kansas City Royals on July 7 and has tallied nine multi-hit games since June 18. This recent stretch really feels like the 21-year-old is going to take off in the second half. He continues to post all-around solid numbers while contributing big-time numbers in the home run, batting average, and stolen base departments.

There's also reason to believe that Ewing can keep this up down the stretch. His xwOBA (.345), expected batting average (.271), expected slugging (.437), launch angle sweet-spot rate (36.9%), walk rate (10.1%), and sprint speed (29.4 ft/sec) all rank in the upper half of the league. That's enough reason to grab the Mets rookie in all formats in Week 16.

There's a chance Ewing can finish his rookie season with a 15-home run, 15-stolen base campaign.

Kyle Karros, 3B, Colorado Rockies

Colorado Rockies third baseman Kyle Karros is showing signs of breaking out in his second Major League season. He is slashing .263/.359/.439 with nine home runs, 18 doubles, two triples, 34 RBI, and three stolen bases this year. Karros has posted even better numbers since the beginning of June, batting .330 with 18 extra-base hits (six home runs) and 19 RBI in his last 37 games.

While playing half his games at Coors Field has helped Karros' numbers a bit, his home-versus-road splits aren't a huge difference. The 23-year-old is batting .279 with four home runs, 10 doubles, and 14 RBI in 43 games at home, compared to .250 with five home runs, eight doubles, and 20 RBI in 50 games on the road.

COL - Kyle Karros Solo HR (9)

📏 435 ft | 💨 105.9 mph | 📐 27°
⚾️ 94.6 mph sinker (SFG - RHP JT Brubaker)
🏟️ Out in 30/30 parks 💣

COL (2) @ SFG (4)
🔺 8th#Rockies pic.twitter.com/a7GnOPG11A

— MLB Home Runs (@MLBHRs_) July 11, 2026

Considering Karros has shown the ability to hit at both home and on the road, he's here to stay. The Rockies third baseman also ranks in the 73rd percentile in Batting Run Value, 72nd percentile in xwOBA (.345), 64th percentile in expected batting average (.260), 57th percentile in expected slugging (.418), 67th percentile in hard-hit rate (44.3%), and 97th percentile in launch angle sweet-spot rate (41.9%).

Those are all encouraging signs that Karros can remain a solid fantasy option in Week 16 and beyond.

Ezequiel Duran, 1B/2B/3B/SS/OF, Texas Rangers

It might have taken some time for Texas Rangers utility specialist Ezequiel Duran to break out, but his breakout season is in full swing. Duran is currently batting .270 with 10 home runs, 15 doubles, 50 RBI, and seven stolen bases across 87 games in 2026. He has proven to be a solid fantasy option for most of the season and is batting .297 with four home runs and nine RBI this month.

However, all signs point to Duran not being for real. His underlying metrics suggest that some massive negative regression is headed his way in the second half. The 27-year-old ranks in the bottom half of the league in xwOBA (.306), expected slugging (.380), barrel rate (6.3%), hard-hit rate (37.3%), and squared-up rate (21.5%).

It's not a great sign that Duran's actual slugging percentage (.436) is 56 points lower than his expected slugging percentage (.380), and that his barrel rate and hard-hit rate don't rank particularly well, either. His plate discipline also remains a problem, as he has a 26.8% whiff rate, 22.7% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, and a 37.3% chase rate.

Duran has posted solid all-around numbers in his fifth Major League season, but he's not a priority add this week. Some struggles could pop up in the second half.

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