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Frank's deep dive into starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, waiver wire adds for Week 11 of 2026. Are these unlikely aces potential league winners?
We're onto the 11th edition of our Unlikely Aces column for the 2026 MLB season. This is an article where we dive into surprising pitchers who have exceeded expectations, performing like Unlikely Aces off the waiver wire. The goal here is to speculate on their rest-of-season value, looking at their current results, pitch mix, and more.
It's felt like an even tougher landscape than usual for starting pitchers, with Garrett Crochet, Eury Perez, and Cole Ragans among many who are facing extended absences. This is why Unlikely Aces are so important for your fantasy teams: they help your rotation stay afloat while you're dealing with injuries. But what we have to ask ourselves is, can they keep it up?
To that end, let's get right into how you should value Troy Melton, Gage Jump, Christian Scott, and Kai-Wei Teng for the rest of the year. Each of these pitchers has strong ratios, but we're here to check to see if their production is sustainable. Do note that any roster percentages referenced here are from Yahoo! leagues.
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Troy Melton, SP, Detroit Tigers
28% Rostered
Troy Melton is putting up a 1.74 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP with an 11.4% strikeout rate and a 7.6% walk rate in 20.2 innings since returning from injury. While we haven't seen many strikeouts yet, they should come sooner than later, as this is a pitcher who put up a 27+ K% throughout the minors, including 35.6 K% this season. But as it stands, the start isn't as good as it looks based on the ERA and WHIP, as highlighted by a 5.28 SIERA. Negative regression could be coming soon, but there's still a lot to like about Melton.
For one, Melton's four-seamer is averaging only 95.8 MPH, which is down from 97.1 MPH in 2025. Perhaps this is a case of a pitcher taking time to get it going following a lengthy absence. Maybe the velocity will return, which would be huge, since this was a pitch that induced a 28.8% whiff rate last year, but it's only at 13.8% this season. If the velo comes back, Melton could start to rack up strikeouts.
Troy Melton is 4-1 with a 2.40 ERA across his first seven Major League starts.
Only three other Tigers have had that low of an ERA and no more than one loss through their first seven starts: Drew Smyly (2012), Mark Fidrych (1976), Herman Pillette (1922).#DNMW pic.twitter.com/HX7BgrvZhQ
— Tigers PR (@DetroitTigersPR) June 9, 2026
That's because he's got an excellent slider, which has induced a .179 wOBA and a 20.0% whiff rate. Hitters are having a tough time generating hard contact off the pitch, but it's not missing as many bats as last year (29.3% whiff rate). There's a good chance that if Melton's four-seamer gets back to 2025 levels, the slider will become more effective as well.
Verdict: Simply put, this is a promising 25-year-old righty who has 84th percentile extension and good fastball velocity (even at the decreased levels). Melton is an example of how you have to look beyond just ERA vs. SIERA when deciding whether a pitcher is worth holding onto. Expect him to get going sooner than later. Make sure to hold.
Gage Jump, SP, Athletics
26% Rostered
Gage Jump is a touted prospect who has gotten off to a strong start since being called up to the big leagues, putting up a 2.45 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP with a 17.8% strikeout rate and a 6.8% walk rate in 18.1 innings. As with Melton, the strikeouts aren't there yet, but this is a pitcher who had a 33.1 K% at Triple-A this year. It's only a matter of time before he gets going. The good news is that Jump's arsenal is grading out positively with stuff metrics, including a 108 Stuff+.
We should also note that Jump's four-seamer is grading well. You have to love a pitcher with a good fastball. So far this year, Jump's four-seamer has induced a .289 xwOBA while sitting at 96.4 MPH. At the same time, it's only racked up a 17.7% whiff rate, but that could improve as Jump gets more acclimated to the big leagues.
If you haven't been taking Gage Jump seriously, it's time.
6.1 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
12 whiffs
25% CSW12 whiffs should have generated more strikeouts, and through three MLB starts, he owns a 2.45 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 13 K in 18.1 IP. pic.twitter.com/mJy8QCRGSf
— Nicho Roessler (@NichoRoessler) June 8, 2026
On the positive side, the rest of Jump's pitches have a 24+% whiff rate or better, including a slider (24.2% whiff rate), changeup (25.0% whiff rate), curveball (25.0% whiff rate), and sweeper (30.8% whiff rate). That's the kind of deep arsenal that you want to see when targeting upside in a young starting pitcher.
Verdict: My one concern here is that Jump only went 112.2 innings last year, so you can expect him to get shut down at some point late in the season, especially since the A's are still rebuilding. On top of that, Sutter Health Park is one of the most hitter-friendly environments in MLB, so there could be some rough outings in the future. I'd still hold obviously, but temper expectations.
Christian Scott, SP, New York Mets
25% Rostered
Christian Scott has been rock-solid for the Mets, registering a 2.50 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP with a 26.3% strikeout rate and an 11.5% walk rate. The stuff has graded out well (108 Stuff+), but the location needs improvement (97 Location+). The good news is that Scott seems to be improving as the year goes along. At the time of this article, he's allowed a combined one earned run in his last three starts, spanning 16.1 innings.
Even though Scott's 4.09 SIERA is a lot higher than his 2.50 ERA, there is one key positive to take away from his profile, even aside from his Stuff+. It's that he's done a great job limiting hard contact, allowing a 3.3% barrel rate (94th percentile) and a 31.5% hard-hit rate (86th percentile). You also have to like that he ranks in the 88th percentile in extension.
When looking at Scott's arsenal, we see that the sweeper has been excellent, inducing a .224 xwOBA and a 32.9% whiff rate. On top of that, Scott's four-seamer velocity has jumped from 94.2 MPH to 95.5 MPH. This is the case of a young and talented pitcher, finding his groove since returning from a lengthy absence after missing the entire 2025 season with Tommy John surgery.
Verdict: Scott is probably my favorite pitcher on this list. The Mets seem to have turned their season around, so there will be plenty of opportunities for wins. He's fully recovered from Tommy John, so the Mets are likely to ride with him throughout the year. Additionally, he's getting better with more experience. Keep riding the wave with this talented right-hander.
Kai-Wei Teng, SP, Houston Astros
16% Rostered
Kai-Wei Teng has been a huge boost to the Astros' rotation, putting up a 3.06 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP with a 23.2% strikeout rate and a 11.1% walk rate. While his 4.11 SIERA is a lot higher than his 3.06 ERA, he's done a good job limiting hard contact, including a 5.7% barrel rate, which ranks in the 73rd percentile.
The problem is that Teng has to rely on his breakers a lot, as his four-seamer has gotten crushed with a .463 wOBA allowed. The good news is that both his sweeper (31.1% whiff rate) and curveball (38.5% whiff rate) have been impressive. But the question we gotta ask with a surprise pitcher like this is, how long can it last?
Teng is definitely the riskiest pitcher on this list, so make sure to only fire him up in exploitable matchups. There's not as much upside here as with others on this list.
Verdict: Hold Teng in deeper leagues, but you can cut bait at the first sign of trouble.
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