Matt Miller's 2026 Masters Tournament Longshot Bets

April 8, 2026

Matt Miller dives into his top longshot bets for the 2026 Masters Tournament sleeper plays, value bets, and under-the-radar golf betting insights.

Welcome to my weekly longshots article! The purpose of this piece is to identify players further down the board who are low-risk, high-reward wagers. For purposes of this article, I am considering longshots to be players over 100-1 on the odds list.

The wagers listed below might have playability in various sectors of the market. Please search your shops to see if you can find anything enticing.

If you have any additional questions for me, you can find me on X @MattyMillz85. I am always more than happy to answer any questions you might have. Also, stay tuned for additional announcements from me here in 2026. Big things are on the way!

Daniel Berger (175-1 FanDuel)

Few players on tour are hitting their irons better than Daniel Berger at the moment. The 33-year-old has gained strokes on approach in four straight starts and five of his last six.

At the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he gained over two strokes per round against the field on approach, ranking first for the week. He finished fifth in the field in strokes gained approach the week prior at the Cognizant. He ranks sixth on the PGA Tour this season on approach.

PAR SAVED 💪

Daniel Berger drains it from 13 feet out to send it to a playoff @APInv pic.twitter.com/OSOOueQxI9

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 8, 2026

One thing that I have also noticed and think plays to Berger’s advantage this week is that he has gained some serious distance and ball speed off the tee. While his 59th-ranked driving distance on Tour this year doesn’t jump off the page, it is a dramatic improvement from his 118^th rank two years ago.

At the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he was 10^th on the week in driving distance, and he ranked 21^st in that category in a deep field at The PLAYERS Championship. Distance will be an advantage this week off the tee at Augusta, so Berger’s added length will be beneficial.

The Florida State product will need to clean up his short game and putting this week if he wants any chance to contend. He has lost strokes around the green in five of his last six starts. There is no way to hide a bad short game at ANGC, so that is a legitimate concern for Berger. Still, the ball striking is good enough that I think he is worth a bite at this number.

In six career starts at this event, he has made five cuts and has finished as high as T10. A win may be asking a lot, but I would not be surprised to see Berger in contention this week. He could be a good look for a top 10 or first-round leader bet as well.

Max Homa (225-1 FanDuel)

If you look closely (maybe a squint is required), you can find some semblance of recent form to feel good about for Max Homa. He has gained strokes on approach in four of his last five starts and 10 of his last 12 measured starts dating back to the fall swing season. That said, it hasn’t necessarily produced results. Homa has just two top-30 finishes in his last 12 starts.

Making it look easy. Max Homa skips across the pond on No. 16. #themasters pic.twitter.com/03Jw5m8NOQ

— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 8, 2026

While form is normally a prerequisite for playing well at Augusta, Homa has been a bit of an outlier. Last year, he missed four consecutive cuts heading into this event and still finished T12, one of only two top-30 finishes he had between January and July of last year. The other was a T26 finish at The Sentry, which had just 58 players in the field.

Homa has made the cut at the Masters the last four years and has finished T12 and T3 in his last two appearances. It seems like he has started to figure the course out, and course history is more predictive at this event than any other on the PGA Tour schedule.

Similar to Berger, I think a win is a lot to ask, but Homa may be worth top-20 consideration, which still pays out at +470. A top-10 bet pays out at +1300.

Carlos Ortiz (300-1 FanDuel)

Someone flying completely under the radar due to playing on LIV is Carlos Ortiz. Ortiz has gained strokes on approach in all five of his LIV starts this season. Twice in his last three starts, he has gained over a stroke per round against the field. This has resulted in sixth- and eighth-place finishes in Hong Kong and South Africa.

Ortiz has also gained strokes around the green in all five starts this year to begin the LIV Golf season. Around the green is a key stat to keep an eye on this week, and it is encouraging that the 34-year-old has been excelling in this component of his game.

With just one career start to date at Augusta, Ortiz has course history and knowledge working against him. Still, we saw him finish fourth last year at the U.S. Open at Oakmont, so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities for him to show up and contend at a big event. Ortiz is +500 on FanDuel for a top-20 finish and +1600 for a top 10.

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