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Kipp Heisterman's Week 5 Monday Night Football betting predictions, anytime touchdown scorer bets, MNF players props bets, and odds analysis for Week 5. Free Monday Night Football betting picks for tonight's game.
Hello everybody, and welcome to Week 5's edition of Monday Night Football bets and props! The NFL season is starting to get into a groove, and we here at RotoBaller could not be more thrilled to bring you some of the best content in the market. We are excited to bring betting content to all those interested in every slate in any given week.
This weekly article will focus on the Monday night slate, and I will provide several different betting angles for the games scheduled. I will typically provide at least one play on the game's total or spread, as well as at least three player or game props, including at least one touchdown prop. Although this article will be published each week on Monday mornings, you can always feel free to check out our Discord channel to see plays posted throughout the week.
This week's Monday night schedule features a massive tilt between two teams coming off stellar Week 4 wins in the 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs and the 3-1 Jacksonville Jaguars in Jacksonville, Fla., at EverBank Stadium. Each of these teams has soft spots in their defense that we can look to take advantage of as well. Without further delay, let's get into tonight's picks for Week 5 of Monday Night Football!
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Week 5 Monday Night Football Betting Odds
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (-108 DraftKings)
Total: 45.5
In this week's Monday night matchup, we have a battle between two teams with high aspirations this season in the Kansas City Chiefs and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Both teams are coming off big Week 4 wins against the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers, respectively.
While the Chiefs are looking to get back into the AFC West race with a win in this matchup, the Jaguars are looking to keep pace with the 4-1 Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South. Overall, we should have a really good game with two respectable offenses and very competent defenses down at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville.
Week 5 Monday Night Football Betting Picks
Believe it or not, both of these teams enter this matchup with pretty respectable defenses. Overall, the Chiefs have allowed a total of 313 total yards per game, while the Jaguars allow an average of 316 total yards per game. These numbers have each of these teams ranked in the top half of the league.
When we break these defenses down even further, we notice that the Jaguars allow an average of just 82 rushing yards per game, which ranks them fourth-best in the league. Meanwhile, the Chiefs' strength lies in their pass defense, which ranks eighth-best in the league, allowing just 186 passing yards per game.
These numbers tell me that the Chiefs will likely look to move the ball through the air with short to intermediate passes, which is their specialty, as opposed to trying to pound the ball with their two unreliable running backs, Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt. Additionally, the Jaguars have struggled to move the ball through the air this season, as evidenced by Trevor Lawrence's average of just 211 passing yards per game; therefore, they are unlikely to continuously attack the Chiefs secondary in this one.
One area both of these teams have proved to be equally successful in is the points allowed department. Overall, the Jaguars have allowed an average of just 18 points per game, and the Chiefs have allowed an average of just 19 points per game. These rank them fifth- and eighth-best overall, respectively.
The Pick: UNDER 45.5 (-108, DraftKings)
Week 5 Monday Night Football Player Props
Trevor Lawrence UNDER 212.5 passing yards (-113, DraftKings)
As aforementioned, the Chiefs have been pretty solid against the pass, allowing just 186 passing yards per game to the quarterback position. This tells me that Lawrence is likely going to have a tough time moving the ball through the air against this defense, and he is also not known for massive passing games.
Thus far in 2025, Lawrence has thrown for an average of just 211 passing yards per game and has failed to eclipse this total in two of his first four games. The Chiefs have also only allowed one quarterback to throw for over 200 passing yards this season, and that came in Week 1 when Justin Herbert threw for 318 yards. Since then, no quarterback has thrown for more than 160 passing yards, which is pretty impressive.
Additionally, the Chiefs have allowed over five yards per carry to the running back position, so the Jaguars will likely look to move the ball on the ground more with Travis Etienne Jr., which will also cut into Lawrence's passing totals.
Travis Kelce OVER 42.5 receiving yards (-109, DraftKings)
Look, I know this is not the hottest of picks, as Kelce has been largely underwhelming for almost a full season at this point. But I was on him last week against a Ravens defense that struggles against the tight-end position, and we are in a similar situation again this week with the Jaguars.
As aforementioned, the Jaguars have a solid run defense, which should lead to the Chiefs looking to move the ball through the air against a defense that has allowed the ninth-most passing yards this season. They especially struggle against the tight-end position as well.
On the season, Jacksonville has allowed nearly 50 receiving yards per game to tight ends, which ranks it in the bottom half of the league. Over the previous two weeks, the Jags have allowed 10 receptions for 117 receiving yards against the tight-end position, so the recency is also in our favor here.
Kelce is still heavily involved in this offense, as he has seen over 16% of targets for the Chiefs. He is currently averaging over five targets per game and has gone over 45 receiving yards in three of four games this season. Kelce is also running a route on more than 70% of his snaps, which is far and away a higher percentage than Noah Gray and Robert Tonyan, the latter of whom has seen zero targets this season.
Travis Kelce To Play Secondary Role In Week 5 https://t.co/tVMu0cgebF
— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) October 5, 2025
Week 5 Monday Night Football Anytime Touchdown Bet
Travis Etienne Jr. ANYTIME touchdown scorer (+105, DraftKings)
Normally, I start this section by saying how disappointed I am in the odds on the anytime touchdown, and recommend the first touchdown as well, but the odds on Etienne at +105 are not too shabby for this matchup. The fact that I expect the Jaguars to pound the ball against this defense plays into the narrative as well.
In addition to allowing over five yards per carry, the Chiefs have also allowed four total touchdowns to the running back position thus far. Three of these touchdowns have come on the ground, while the other one was through the air. I bring up the receiving touchdown, as Etienne is a very versatile back, and the Chiefs have struggled a bit against versatile backs.
Overall, the Chiefs have allowed 149 receiving yards to the running back position on 20 receptions, which ranks them in the bottom half of the league. Meanwhile, in addition to his 394 rushing yards and two rushing scores, Etienne has also hauled in six of his 10 receiving targets for 32 receiving yards and one score. He is a dynamic weapon who is capable of scoring in different ways, which makes him a solid pick for a touchdown in this matchup.
Travis Etienne Jr. 10.8 FANTASY POINT TOUCHDOWN!!pic.twitter.com/qHVRxu82E3
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) September 28, 2025
