MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (8/17/2025)

August 17, 2025

Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/17/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Willy Adames, Ketel Marte, Josh Bell, and Julio Rodriguez.

Welcome Back, RotoBallers! We have a big slate on deck, and a very important game ahead! With the Little League World Series going on. That means we have the Mariners and the Mets taking each other on in the Little League Classic in Williamsport. The Dimensions are a little smaller than your normal field, so that could play into our favor here with a bunch of power hitters on deck, such as Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Juan Soto, and Francisco Lindor taking the plate.

So far, we have the benefit of Sutter Health Park and Coors Field on this slate. We also get Historic Bowman Field on this slate, as I mentioned. We do experience some pretty heavy winds in a few games, as the Rays/Giants could have some gusts of 15 mph. The Tigers and Twins game would be a good one to avoid, as they have the wind blowing in at nearly 12 mph! The strategy for targeting home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. Another key factor to consider is the betting odds.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Sunday, August 17, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/17/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Sunday, August 17:

• Willy Adames, San Francisco Giants
• Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks
• Josh Bell, Washington Nationals
• Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners

Willy Adames OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 DraftKings)

This Giants/Rays game could end up being a pretty home run-heavy game. At least from the Giants' side, anyway. Ryan Pepiot grades out as one of the best pitchers to target for home runs on this slate. He has given up 26 home runs on the season, with 16 of those being to the right-handed side of the plate. He has put out a .345 wOBA and a .481 SLG, which is 100 points higher than versus lefties.

Willy Adames already has one home run in this series against Joe Boyle. We get the benefit of the wind massively in this one as we are looking at 12 to 15 mph winds going out to Left/Center field. If those winds end up staying consistent throughout the game, that is going to be big for Adames.

Willy Adames blasts a solo shot for the lead 🚀 pic.twitter.com/pibx4HlITB

— MLB (@MLB) August 16, 2025

Adames has hit 14 of his 19 home runs against RHP this season, where he also sports a .422 SLG and a .329 wOBA. Adames has five ABs against Pepiot and has one home run already. With the wind in his favor, I wouldn't be surprised if we see him hit another one off of Pepiot.

The big three pitches for Pepiot are his four-seamer, changeup, and slider. He has given up 24 home runs off of those three pitches alone. The big ones for Adames have been the four-seamer and the slider, where he has hit 16 home runs this year. Adames grades out extremely well here against Pepiot; we just need him to perform and get the job done!

Ketel Marte OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+ DraftKings)

It can't be a home run article without Coors Field being in it! Kyle Freeland has been pretty bad about giving up home runs this year. Specifically, to right-handed hitters, where he has a 1.48 HR/9 and has given up 15 of his 16 home runs this season. I'm going with the chalky pick in Ketel Marte, but if you are looking for something a little longer, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Geraldo Perdomo both grade out well against Freeland, too.

Marte has been elite against Freeland in his career. He has 17 total hits against him, including three home runs. He is batting .354 against him in 48 ABs. It is going to be a balmy 92 degrees in Denver, which should allow the balls to fly freely with Marte's success to go along with his .475 SLG and .220 ISO against lefties. He is in a prime position for a big game.

The four-seamer and cutter have been the big pitches that home runs have come off of Freeland. Marte has hit 10 home runs off those two pitches combined. The wind won't be much of a factor in this one, so we should see guys with straight power getting them out of the park. Give me Marte to knock one out and get his fourth home run off of Freeland.

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Josh Bell OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+475 DraftKings)

Aaron Nola has been a bit HR-prone against the lefties this season. He is making his return from the IL and his first start since May 14th. He gave up 11 home runs this season, nine of which were to LHH. Nola has been specifically hit off of his Knuckle Curve and Four Seamer, which contribute to eight of his home runs.

Josh Bell has been a bit up and down this season, but he has a great spot here against Nola, making his first start in three months. Josh Bell also has three home runs off of him and many ABs to go with it. Bell has hit six of his twelve home runs off RHP, off the four-seamer and Knuckle Curve.

Bell has been much better from the left side of the plate, where he hits for a .337 wOBA and a .420 SLG. Bell has a 45.5% HardHit% and a Barrel% of 11.3%. I'm expecting Nola to come back rusty, and as for Bell, he should have a solid opportunity to go yard in this one.

Julio Rodriguez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 DraftKings)

The Mariners and Mets take each other on in the Little League Classic in Williamsport! This field is a bit smaller than your normal MLB field, but with the amount of power hitters we have in this game alone, it should make for some big home run moments. Clay Holmes has given up seven runs in his first two starts of August. They didn't involve any home runs, but he is getting hit more in his last two starts.

Rodriguez, as per usual, is a different breed in the second half of the season. He has 13 home runs since the beginning of July and has seemed to have found his swing. He is hitting righties to the tune of a .331 wOBA and a .439 SLG. The pull side for him should be a bit easier to hit in Williamsport. Julio is sporting a 47.3% HardHit% and a 10% Barrel%.

Julio Rodriguez is the first player in MLB history to begin a career with four straight seasons of 20+ HR and 20+ SB pic.twitter.com/uyqnNV0egw

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) August 3, 2025

The two pitches Holmes has been hit off of the most are his sinker and his slider. Both of those are great pitches for Julio, who has hit seven home runs off those pitches. Against RHP, Julio has seen his exit velocity jump nearly 12 mph across the last five games compared to his average. His last five have been pushing an exit velocity of 103 mph! Those numbers are absurd, and if he can just get under the ball just a bit better, then the ball is going to be sent out of this smaller field.

These odds on Julio are too juicy for how hot he has been in the second half. All the eyes are on Raleigh right now, but it's Julio who has been the difference maker in the last few weeks.

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