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Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/1/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Cam Smith, Jo Adell, Matt McLain, and more!
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Who would have thought that the pitching duel between Chase Burns and Garrett Crochet would have resulted in so much action and homers? I didn't think that's for sure! We also had a home run stolen from Max Kepler that would have been nice to get something going! On to today, though, where we have plenty of action to get to!
The strategy behind choosing home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price regarding betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on volatile outcomes like home runs, or you can burn through your bankroll quickly.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, July 1, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/1/2025)
Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Tuesday, July 1:
- Cam Smith - Houston Astros
- Jo Adell - Los Angeles Angels
- Matt McLain- Cincinnati Reds
- Willy Adames - San Francisco Giants
- Josh Bell - Washington Nationals
Cam Smith OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 FanDuel Sportsbook)
I think it's easy to take someone like Isaac Paredes or Jose Altuve here against Chase Dollander at Coors Field, but why not take a shot on someone with worse odds but who has a solid chance of hitting one as well? Smith has four home runs in the last two weeks and has been hitting the ball pretty hard with a 47.6% HardHit%.
Smith will face Dollander, who has had a rough start to his rookie season. He has been allowing many home runs this season with a HR/9 of 2.02, which increases to 2.73 for games at home. His HardHit% is reasonable at only 39.8%, but where it gets interesting is the 13.3% Barrel%, which is the second-highest on the slate.
It's trending towards being hot in Denver, with high 80s or low 90s, which should only help the ball travel further. Dollander has been home run-prone to both sides of the plate, making this whole lineup viable for home runs.
Jo Adell OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+310 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Not quite ideal conditions at the moment, with it possibly going to rain, but I can't ignore going against Didier Fuentes. He has shown no reason to be at the MLB level yet and has given up 10 runs in his first two outings, including three home runs. So far, he has a near 12% Barrel% and a 53% HardHit%, which is the highest on the slate.
He also had a 54.5% HardHit% in Triple-A this year.
Jo Adell now has 18 HR and a 125 wRC+
— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) June 28, 2025
Jo Adell might be one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now. He had 11 home runs in June and has 18 on the season, 14 of which against RHP. Adell has a 31% FlyBall% across the last 10 games, with his average exit velocity in the mid-90s. This is just a recipe for a big start to July for Jo Adell.
I also like guys like Nolan Schanuel and Logan O'Hoppe, who have been hitting the ball well recently, too.
Matt McLain OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425 DraftKings Sportsbook)
I love this play. Richard Fitts has been one of the hardest-hit guys this season. He has a 14.1% Barrel%, which is the highest on the slate, to go with a 43.6% HardHit%. He also has an HR/9 of 2.52, all of which have come against RHH. Fitts has given up a SLG of .609 to RHH compared to the minimal .219 against LHH.
Matt McLain overall hasn't been terrific, but he does have seven home runs against RHP and an increased SLG compared to against LHP. McLain has a 40% HardHit% and loves to hit off of a four-seamer and slider, which happens to be where all but one of Fitts' homers have been hit off of. Fitts has an xSLG of .649 off of his four-seamer this year, which he throws nearly 40% of the time.
The weather is looking like it might be in the high 80s in Boston, and the wind is pushing 10+ mph out towards center field. This gives these hitters even more chances to hit homers in Boston, which is already very hitter-friendly.
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Willy Adames OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 FanDuel Sportsbook)
The weather didn't seem to impact the game as much as I had hoped here in Arizona, but I think the pitcher's duel we had between Nelson and Webb was a bit unexpected. This time around, we get so many more homerun-prone pitchers in Zac Gallen and Hayden Birdsong. It still appears that Phoenix will be sweltering hot, with temperatures expected to reach nearly 110 degrees.
Gallen is having a down year in Arizona. He has a 12.7% Barrel% to go with a 46.4% HardHit%, which is the third highest on the slate in both categories. He also has an HR/9 of 1.76 and a Z-Contact% of 91% so when he is pitching in the zone, hitters are getting to him. Both sides of the plate have been able to get to him, but I like RHH in Arizona a bit more; they have just a slightly easier time hitting to the pull side.
I went with Heliot Ramos yesterday, so I'm going to go to Adames here. Willy lines up nicely here against Gallen, who throws his four-seamer nearly 48% of the time and has had six homers hit off of it. That is Adames' bread and butter, as he has hit five home runs off of it and has an xSLG of .568. Adames has a great HardHit% of 43.8% and a Barrel% of 11.4%.
Josh Bell OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)
I think the easy choice is to go with James Wood here, but what's the fun in that? Josh Bell is in a good spot as well, as 10 of his 11 homers have come against RHP this season, where he hits the ball much better. He is also benefiting from the wind blowing out to right field, so being on the left side of the plate is very beneficial for the pull side.
Jack Flaherty has been a good pitcher, but he has been bad about giving up home runs this season, especially to LHH. He has a 2.04 HR/9 this season against LHH. He is also sporting a 43.7% HardHit% and a high 11.2% Barrel%. Flaherty has been specifically hit pretty badly off his four-seamer, where 10 home runs have been hit.
Bell has six home runs off the four-seamer this season and sports a .560 xSLG to go with it.
Josh Bell with a smasher to left field pic.twitter.com/UoGb7ePveG
— Nationals on MASN (@masnNationals) June 28, 2025
I love all the lefties here against Flaherty, but Bell and Wood are the clear top two options here.
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