Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Analysis: Buyer Beware for Week 4? (2025)

Michael's fantasy baseball waiver wire analysis for Week 4 (2025), and whether to buy into MLB hitters and pitchers such as Matt Mervis and Andrew Abbott. Should you avoid these popular names?

This week saw a blitz of prospect promotions across baseball as major league teams look to cover for injuries or provide a spark. That’s right, the injuries kept on keeping on, too, as we got bad news on players like Willi Castro and players not responding well to rehabilitation, such as Grayson Rodriguez.

Both injuries and new blood require fantasy managers to consider their own replacements or upgrades. But having a need does not mean we have to go overboard with our waiver bidding.

Let’s take a look at four players we’re seeing recommended as FAAB additions this week. The usual caveats apply; more often than not we are counseling wise expenditures rather than being out on the player completely. To the names!

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Matt Mervis - 1B, Miami Marlins (9% rostered)

Mervis was left for dead by the Cubs (and fantasy managers) after struggling badly in his first taste of the majors in 2023 and 2024. Chicago sent him to the Marlins for Vidal Brujan this offseason—further cementing his original team’s dim view of him—and Mervis was barely drafted even in deep fantasy leagues. Six home runs later and Mervis is a hot name in waiver articles.

Granted, early 21.7 percent barrel and 56.5 percent hard hit rates support the power output. But which of these numbers is the outlier: 40 percent strikeout rate, .275 average, 73 percent zone contact, 19.8 percent swinging strike rate. (That was before he went 0-4 with three strikeouts Friday).

You get the idea that the average can and will tank badly if the other trends hold. We have seen Mervis hit below the Mendoza line before. Moreover, he’s also shown brief power outbursts but the high strikeout rates always sink that too:

For now, Mervis is worth an add in deep leagues to see if the power burst continues. It is just unlikely he will keep this level going for very long. We would not spend more than a nominal bid on him, especially given the plethora of breakouts at first base (e.g., Tyler Soderstrom, Spencer Torkelson, Michael Busch).

Chase Meidroth 2B/3B/SS, White Sox (5% rostered)

Can I interest you in a middle infielder with marginal speed and even less power who gets on base a ton for one of baseball’s worst offenses? That’s Meidroth in a nutshell.

Perhaps that’s not entirely fair, as the young utility man may provide a plus batting average. For example, Meidroth hit .293 last season in Triple-A and did not strike out often (12.6 percent). Will it carry over to the majors? He makes a lot of contact, but projections think Meidroth will end up a roughly league average hitter (e.g., ATC projects a .244 average).

Meidroth has stolen 13 bases each of the last two seasons in the minors. The problem? He is not particularly fast. His early Statcast sprint speed is in the 36th percentile, and FanGraphs gave him a 40 speed grade as a prospect (below average).

Meidroth’s rest of season ATC projection is 6 homers, 50 runs, 38 RBI, 8 steals, and a .244 average in 108 games. He has been leading off the past couple of days, but on the White Sox, that is not worth chasing with a significant FAAB outlay. If you’re in an OBP format Meidroth’s near-12% projected walk rate and .344 on base percentage may be worth a little more.

Ty France - 1B, Minnesota Twins (7% rostered)

After a rough 2024 that saw France striking out at career-high rates, this season he seems to have settled in closer to his past performance, i.e., a solid and consistent hitter with middling power for a corner infielder. So far he’s hitting .254 with two home runs in 20 games.

France hits third or cleanup for the Twins, but so far, they have had a moribund offense. Moreover he is excelling in contact but little else: 8.5 percent barrel and 41 percent hard hit rates are just a tick above league average. ATC projects just 12 more home runs the rest of the season.

While France may be reasonably productive, he is more about floor than ceiling. We would prefer to go after upside, especially in shallower leagues and head to head formats. For example, go get Jonathan Aranda (51% rostered) or Ben Rice (64% rostered) as first basemen with game changing power, if they are available in your league. Even in deep leagues, we would keep the France bids low (like his ceiling).

Andrew Abbott - SP, Cincinnati Reds (17% rostered)

Abbott finished last season early with a rotator cuff injury to his throwing shoulder. That injury kept the lefty behind in spring, but after a solid win in his first start last weekend, he dominated the Orioles on Friday with one earned run, 11 punch outs, and just three baserunners allowed in six innings.

Abbott really puts the idea of valuing process over results to the test. He has consistently outperformed his underlying metrics: 3.87 ERA to a 4.20 FIP in 2023 and 3.82 ERA to a 5.04 FIP in 2024. Last season Abbott posted a completely “meh” 9 percent swinging strike rate and 10 percent K-BB.

Even that start against Baltimore is less impressive than it seems. The O’s entered the game with a 26 percent strikeout rate and 64 wRC+ versus lefties.

Now coming off the shoulder issue, Abbott’s fastball velocity was down 1.5 MPH in that first start (91.4) and clocked in even lower on Friday (91.1). Lower velocities have not been good for his home run rates:

Abbott benefited from a .091 BABIP in that first start. Beating the expected BABIP is possible for extreme flyball pitchers like him. But not to that degree and eventually that isn’t going to “fly” in his home park, which happens to be the most homer-friendly in MLB; Abbott has allowed a career 1.5 HR/9 (1.14 is league average).

There just isn’t much underlying Abbott’s performance to grasp onto; being excited here requires believing he can beat myriad factors that all point to danger. He does pitch in a relatively weak division. One of his primary positives used to be the innings potential but even that is dubious now given his recent injury history. He is also lined up to face the Rockies next. In Coors.

If you need innings in a deep league, you could do worse than Abbott. We just have to have reasonable expectations—and bids—given the many yellow flags.

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