RADIO
Tommy Bell's weekly deep dive into three fantasy baseball starting pitchers to decide if their surprisingly good form merits a roster spot or staying on the waiver wire for Week 21 (2024).
Welcome back to another week of Unlikely Aces. We have reached mid-August, and as excited as I was about the Pirates' chances to make some noise in September a couple of weeks ago, I am now equally as depressed. Such is the life of a Bucco fan. While I sulk in my sorrows, let's see if we can find a few Unlikely Aces once more for Week 21.
Each week, I'll take a look at three starters who have found recent success despite lesser outlooks across the fantasy landscape. By diving into some analytics, we can try to predict whether a back-end arm can potentially carry fantasy managers to glory or if the strong performances are more likely a flash in the pan.
Are these unlikely aces for real, or is it safe to leave them out on the waiver wire with negative regression surely coming in bunches quickly? Let's take a deeper look!
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Nick Martinez, Cincinnati Reds
28% Rostered
Martinez was downright awful in his five starts to begin the 2024 season, but he found his groove in the Reds bullpen from the end of May through the beginning of August, keeping his xFIP below 4.00 and keeping his walk rate low in mostly one- to three-inning stints.
The now 34-year-old was thrust back into the starter role on Aug. 5, and while it was a bit of a cakewalk in the Marlins, he impressed, throwing five shutout innings with five strikeouts and allowing just four hits and no walks. The Reds let him try again and he did not disappoint, blanking the Brewers over the weekend through seven innings this time, allowing just one hit while striking out seven.
Could these two high-strikeout outings be just mere flashes in the pan for the journeyman? Probably. But what if there's something legitimate going on here?
Nick Martinez credited a good game plan and the effective pitch calling of Tyler Stephenson for helping to contribute to his success in his spectacular start tonight in Milwaukee.
Martinez tossed a season-high seven shutout innings, allowing just one hit. pic.twitter.com/RhxniriPIc
— Bally Sports Cincinnati (@BallySportsCIN) August 11, 2024
The former Ranger (then Padre) was able to up his ground-ball percentage nicely in these recent two starts compared to his previous five. Martinez is still playing with his deep arsenal of pitches, so there's no real trend there, but the numbers were staggering enough against a fine offense in Milwaukee for us to take notice, especially at this time of the year.
I don't fault any fantasy manager for taking a shot on the 2011 draft pick, as odd as this success seems. Martinez should have some intriguing matchups down the stretch, and if he can keep his strikeout stuff like these, he's well worth a few starts this month and maybe into September.
Tyler Mahle, Texas Rangers
21% Rostered
After suffering a season-ending elbow injury just five starts into his 2023 season with the Twins, Mahle finally made a return with his new team, the Rangers, last week. Two starts into his return, things look good!
The 29-year-old has been limited to start, as expected, but he's struck out nine hitters over his 9.2 combined innings while allowing three earned runs on eight hits and four walks. An early hard-hit rate below 40% is a bit encouraging so far, and a low line drive rate of 14.3% is nice, too. Oh yes, and he's faced the Astros and Red Sox so far!
Mahle is relying on his fastball about half the time, and his splitter/slider combo takes up most of the rest of his pitches. It's still early, obviously, and we're going to have to hope that the Rangers are willing to let the right-hander off his leash a bit soon, but if you wait too long, the "buying" opportunity will pass.
Welcome to Texas, Tyler Mahle. It's his first MLB strikeout of 2024: pic.twitter.com/aUS3c308kL
— kennedi landry (@kennlandry) August 7, 2024
Now is the time to take a shot on a live arm just in case Mahle can make the most of the final month and a half of his very much shortened season.
Osvaldo Bido, Oakland Athletics
3% Rostered
Would you like one more high-upside, LIVE arm with some risk to pick up just in case there's lightning in the bottle for the final month of the fantasy baseball season? Look no further than Bido!
Six shutout in The Six for Osvaldo Bido 🔥 pic.twitter.com/ulWKN3ElCe
— Oakland A's (@Athletics) August 10, 2024
The 28-year-old came up through the Pirates organization without really finding his strikeout prowess. Leave it to the A's organization to tap into something here. Bido is now throwing his fastball at 97 mph with a run to go with a fine slider that can fool some hitters. Walks have been a bit of an issue in his four recent starts, but home runs have not.
The movement on Bido's pitches must be doing something right because he's managed to avoid much of any hard contact in either of his last two starts against the Blue Jays and Dodgers. There's no telling when the wheels might fall off, but this is a true dart throw here. Go for the upside with Bido if you need a prayer.
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