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We are nearing the end of the first month of the Major League Baseball season, and while many flashes in the proverbial fantasy baseball pan have regressed back to their norms, some starting pitchers have continued their hot starts to force managers to reconsider their draft-day value.
Regardless of how much MLB success each of the following pitchers have achieved, there has been plenty to like about their 2024 season thus far. But will it last, or is it time to sell high before we hit a potential May regression?
Below, I have broken down three pitchers based on their results thus far, and I've tried to make a decision on how fantasy managers should value them moving forward.
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Early-Season Pitching Standouts
Jose Berrios, Toronto Blue Jays
Five appearances into the season, Blue Jays veteran pitcher Jose Berrios is 4-0 with a stunning 0.85 ERA. The biggest reason for the 29-year-old's success so far seems to stem from a .250 BABIP, which is allowing him to get out of innings unscathed. Berrios' strikeout rate has dropped a touch from 8.63 K/9 last year to 7.67 K/9 so far this year, but he's also lowered his line drive rate and barrel rate while upping his ground ball and soft contact rates.
Is this sustainable for Toronto's right-handed pitcher?
José Berrios tonight:
— 6.0 IP
— 5 H
— 0 R
— 2 BB, 6 SO
— 91 Pitches (63 Strikes)ERA down to 0.85 🤯 pic.twitter.com/b3ay4RyoNE
— BlueJays Muse (@BlueJays_Muse) April 21, 2024
Berrios seems to be making an effort to focus more on soft contact and less on strikeouts, and it's working! He has cut down his four-seam fastball usage considerably, substituting in some cutters, more sinkers, and a few more sliders, too. These pitches seem to be trying to induce soft ground balls, and while it may result in a few more baserunners in the long run compared to strikeout pitches, Berrios is avoiding the long ball.
There will surely be a few rough outings ahead, but this approach is fantastic for an aging veteran arm. There's a lot to like for Berrios as a starting pitcher in the top-40 range with upside for top 25 if he keeps this up!
Ranger Suarez, Philadelphia Phillies
Left-hander Ranger Suarez hasn't thrown quite as many innings as Berrios in his career, but this year's improvements seem to be a bit similar while yielding a few more strikeouts. The 28-year-old is 4-0 with a 1.36 ERA and just five walks to his 32 strikeouts thus far.
Suarez has also lowered his four-seam fastball usage, throwing more sinkers instead. The results have been an incredible 59% ground-ball rate with a minuscule 17.5% hard-hit rate. The southpaw has lowered his walk rate nicely, and seems to be in a reasonable HR/FB range right now. The BABIP will not stay at .205 all year, so some more ground balls and line drives will find holes, but overall Suarez could be on to something.
With a bit more strikeout upside, but a bit less experience to lean back on, we can probably place Suarez in the same range as Berrios (top 40ish with nice upside). That being said, there could be a bit of caution with his inning allotment this season, as Suarez threw 155 innings two years ago and just 125 last year. Assuming he stays healthy, Suarez might find his way back in the bullpen by season's end in order to avoid burnout.
Ronel Blanco, Houston Astros
Ronel Blanco of the Houston Astros is the oldest of this trio, but in terms of MLB innings, he's nowhere close to Berrios and Suarez. The journeyman minor league righty earned a spot in the Astros rotation to start the year due to injuries around him, and to say he's made the most of it would be a massive understatement.
Ronel Blanco, Nasty Changeups. 👌👌👌👌 pic.twitter.com/iH5EMILLgj
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 20, 2024
Blanco has followed up his no-hitter with three more impressive outings. Through four starts, his ERA sits at 1.33 with just 11 hits allowed through 27 innings. The 12 walks are a bit worrisome, but the 2.07 xERA and just one barrel to this point indicates what makes Blanco so special: His movement on pitches.
Not only has the right-hander added more run to his four-seam fastball, but his changeup is dropping like crazy, and he's throwing that pitch 31% of the time thus far. Blanco can afford to put runners on because no one is squaring up his pitches. We keep waiting for that to change, but so far the likes of Texas, Toronto, and Washington have all been baffled.
It's too early in an unlikely scenario to call Blanco a late-blooming ace, but he's done enough for the Astros to leave him in the rotation for now, and that's a massive win in its own right. Blanco could probably throw 150 innings this year if Houston really decides to ride him through the summer, and we'll see if those walks ever start to come back to bite him. In the meantime, fantasy managers should either try to sell him for a top-35 arm (or top-10 bat at weak offensive positions) or just ride out the success to see where it takes them!
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