Five Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers To Target In 2024 Drafts

January 31, 2024

Jamie Steed looks at five starting pitchers going after pick 100 in fantasy baseball drafts. Despite being drafted in the middle to late rounds, they can outperform their ADP and provide value on your fantasy rosters.

The starting pitcher climate continues to evolve and fantasy baseball managers have to adapt. Gone are the days when starters routinely throw over 100 pitches in a start while getting through seven or more innings of work. While that does represent new challenges, it also opens up more pitching strategies.

Regardless of how you plan your draft when it comes to pitching, getting later-round starters who perform better than their ADP can be the biggest difference-maker in your fantasy leagues. To help you on your way to a fantasy title, we're looking at five starting pitchers who are all going outside the top 100 picks but are all in great positions to outperform their ADP.

While there are many starting pitchers who tick that box, these are five who stand out early in draft season. Don't forget to keep up to date with all your preseason fantasy baseball needs by following RotoBaller on X . Without further ado, here are five later-round starting pitchers who are primed to outperform their ADP.

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Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

It's easy to look at Bibee's numbers last year and think he'll be an SP1 in 2024. In 25 starts (142.0 IP), the rookie had a 10-4 W-L record, 2.98 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 141 Ks. He's generally being drafted just outside the top 30 starting pitchers and has an ADP of ~115. However, Bibee is someone I see ending the year comfortably as a top-20 starter and even pushing for SP1 status.

The runner-up for the AL Rookie of the Year award does have a couple of red flags. He ended the year on the IL with a hip injury but is expected to be a full go for spring training. Then there's the 4.22 xFIP and 4.19 SIERA, making Bibee's sub-3.00 ERA look like a mirage. While I do agree that we'll see some regression in 2024, I'm not too concerned by his ERA ballooning.

In a limited sample, Bibee outperformed his xFIP in the minors. His .286 BABIP last year suggests he can put up a low ERA. The fact he had a 6.1% Barrel% (80th percentile) should help with that. Bibee has a four-pitch arsenal, and unlike some starters, they are all above average pitches. Just look at the run value for his repertoire last year, courtesy of Baseball Savant.

One of the biggest reasons I'm in on Bibee this year is how he improved as the season went on. Comparing his first-half and second-half numbers will show us that Bibee increased the strikeouts (from 23.7% K% to 24.5% K%) and lowered his walks (from 9.0% BB% to 6.3% BB%). A large part of that was Bibee getting more swings and misses, as evidenced by a 12.8% SwStr% in the second half (9.6% SwStr% in the first half).

Bibee's slider (.227 xwOBA) and changeup (.236 xwOBA) will continue to rack up strikeouts. With an increased workload, he could reach 175 Ks if the quality of those pitches remains. Only 13 pitchers managed a 3.50 ERA or better with 175 Ks last year. Both these stats are well within Bibee's capability. That kind of season would leave him as a borderline SP1 and would mean Bibee considerably outperforms his ADP.

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

There are currently 50 starting pitchers being drafted before Woo, according to his ADP (~189). As of this writing, there are only around 30 starting pitchers I'd rather have on my fantasy roster than Woo. In his rookie season, Woo made 18 starts (87.2 IP) with a 4-5 W-L record, 4.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 93 Ks.

Woo got called up to the majors after posting a 2.05 ERA in nine starts at Double-A, skipping Triple-A completely. That may mean he starts the year in the minors and it's unlikely Woo has a huge workload this year. But he totaled 131.2 IP across the two levels last year, so 160 IP in 2024 is far from unreasonable.

Woo largely relies on three pitches, a four-seam fastball, a sinker, and a cutter. All of them had a sub-.300 xwOBA with the fastball (30.3% Whiff%) and cutter (33.0% Whiff%) picking up plenty of strikeouts. Woo also limited hard contact, with a 6.3% Barrel% (77th percentile) and 33.8% hard-hit% (83rd percentile).

As things currently stand, Woo is slated to be part of the Mariners' Opening Day roster. Although he was set to miss the first half of the season, the fact they traded away Robbie Ray suggests the Mariners are happy with Woo and their young rotation for the 2024 season and beyond. Their faith in Woo should be rewarded and his fantasy managers will feel the same way.

Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays

Pepiot figured to compete for a rotation spot with the Dodgers before he was sent to Tampa Bay as part of the Tyler Glasnow trade. He's now almost a lock to start the season in the majors. While fantasy managers have long been frustrated with the Rays' usage of their starters, it's difficult to question the results. Pepiot is set to be another breakout star in Tampa Bay.

With an ADP of ~202, Pepiot has plenty of room to outperform his perceived value. Pepiot has totaled 78.1 IP in the majors over the last two years and has an impressive 2.76 ERA. In what feels like an exception rather than the norm nowadays, Pepiot has 155.2 IP at Triple-A, with a 3.99 ERA to show for it. He struck out 186 batters at Triple-A and with a 25.1% K% in the majors, he should be a solid source of strikeouts.

Even with the Rays, Pepiot looks set to be a safer pick compared to many being taken around the 200th pick. Pepiot is set to have a solid ERA, a good number of strikeouts, and a decent number of wins, making him an ideal option to offset a riskier pick. He did miss four months last year with an oblique injury. There are few pitchers without question marks after pick 200, but Pepiot will still likely outperform his ADP.

Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies

Before the 2023 season began, Sánchez had a 5.47 ERA (52.2 IP) in the majors with most of his work coming out of the bullpen (four starts). He ended the year starting Game 4 of the NLCS. It was quite the turnaround for Sánchez and if we look at his numbers, it was completely justified. In 19 appearances (18 starts), Sánchez had a 3-5 W-L record, 3.44 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 96 Ks.

The one major slight on Sánchez before last year was the walks. After walking 24 batters in 52.2 IP before last year (10.2% BB%), Sánchez walked only 16 batters in 99.1 IP in 2023 (4.0% BB%). While it warrants believing Sánchez has improved his control, he had a 10.5% BB% in the minors (450.1 IP). That makes it difficult to fully get behind Sánchez and his 98th percentile walk rate.

Sánchez's improved control didn't come as a detriment to the strikeouts either. His 24.2% K% was up from the 20.3% K% he put up before 2023. Sánchez managed to maintain both marks throughout the season. Sánchez is 27 years old, so concerns about a rookie workload aren't necessary. With an ADP of ~253, it's certainly worth the risk of him regressing to his wilder early days. Even if he holds some gains in the control department, that will present fantasy value.

Logan Allen, Cleveland Guardians

This is the second Guardians pitcher on the list, but this one is going undrafted in most 12-team leagues. Allen has an ADP of ~471 in early NFBC drafts despite being locked into a rotation spot and on the back of an impressive rookie season. In 24 starts (125.1 IP), Allen had a 7-8 W-L record, 3.81 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 119 Ks.

The elevated WHIP wasn't just down to a high walk rate, with his 8.9% BB% ranking in the 42nd percentile. Allen had a .314 BABIP, which is partly down to being a 'soft-tossing leftie', but was still higher than you'd expect. That will also go toward explaining Allen's 4.28 xFIP and 4.49 SIERA. A look at Allen's Statcast profile doesn't paint a rosy picture, but it does show one very notable promising sign.

Allen's changeup was elite, with a .215 xBA, .285 xSLG, and .252 xwOBA. His sweeper wasn't far behind with a .266 xwOBA, but had a .305 wOBA compared to his changeup, which had a .219 wOBA. If they both normalize toward their expected numbers, both will be very good pitches. Given Allen threw his sweeper 22.0% of the time and his changeup 21.2%, he won't need to be too reliant on his so-so fastball, which averaged 91.4 mph.

I'm not expecting fireworks from Allen and he's not someone I'd draft ahead of anyone else on this list. But he showed more than enough promise in his rookie season and even if he only repeats last year's numbers, he'll still be much more worthy than just a last-round pick. It isn't a stretch to believe he'll improve in his sophomore season, especially on a team that's had a track record of developing pitching.

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