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To dominate your fantasy football leagues, you must capitalize on major ADP Values and sleepers being taken too late in drafts. In this article, I’ll walk through five of my favorite ADP Values at the wide receiver position (looking at NFFC ADP over the last two weeks).
If you'd like to read about the best ADP Values at the running back position, you can check out my recent article here.
Since I’ve already covered each of the rookie wide receivers earlier this offseason, I’ve decided to remove them from contention on this list. If you’d like to read about any of the rookie WRs, you can check out each of my articles on those names below:
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Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
WR23
Last season, over his final six games, Detroit Lions’ WR Amon-Ra St. Brown was performing like one of the best receivers in the NFL. During that span, he put up 20.9 half-PPR PPG, making him the WR2 throughout that stretch.
However, this breakout came simultaneously with Lions’ teammates D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson suffering injuries, meaning Amon-Ra was the only healthy offensive threat on the field. In turn, he commanded a 32.4% target share over those final six games.
However, it is important to understand that targets are earned, never given. Therefore, ARSB’s end-of-season breakout may have been exaggerated by the injuries to his teammates, but it would’ve happened without them too. Amon-Ra didn’t just fall into a 30+% target share as a rookie on accident, he was by far the most talented player on the field once Swift and Hockenson went down.
This idea that ARSB’s relevance was not a factor of his own abilities but rather his teammate's injuries has pushed his ADP down to WR23, while he has clear potential to finish as a WR1. I don’t expect to see the same numbers we saw from Amon-Ra during the back end of his rookie season, but we could still see him finish within the top 10 at the position with just 65% of last year’s production.
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears
WR27
Chicago Bears’ WR Darnell Mooney looks to dominate the team’s target share in his third season, as the Bears let veteran receiver Allen Robinson walk this offseason.
In the five matchups that Allen Robinson missed last season, Mooney’s targets increased from 7.8 to 9.4 per game, and his receiving yards jumped from 55.3 to 78.2 YPG. Clearly, Robinson’s departure is outstanding news for Darnell Mooney’s fantasy value, yet his ADP doesn’t seem to reflect that.
Mooney’s 11.7 half-PPR PPG in games without Allen Robinson was more than Michael Pittman Jr. (11.5), A.J. Brown (11.5), and DJ Moore (11.2) last season, yet all three are being drafted as top-15 WRs this year.
Meanwhile, despite having an upgraded situation heading into 2022, Mooney’s ADP is currently set at WR27, below where he finished last season (WR24). In other words, Mooney is being drafted at his floor, making him an extremely safe pick for your fantasy football leagues.
Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens
WR28
Baltimore Ravens WR Rashod Bateman didn’t get a full opportunity to display his immense talents last season, but he is primed for success now that the team has traded away fellow receiver Marquise Brown to the Arizona Cardinals.
As a sophomore at Minnesota, Bateman put up over 1200 YDs and 11 TDs on just 60 receptions. While he played sparingly during his junior season due to Big Ten’s COVID-19 policies, Bateman still declared for the 2021 NFL Draft, where the Ravens selected him 27th overall as the fifth WR off the board.
Unfortunately, Bateman was sidelined for the first five games of his rookie year with a groin injury he suffered during the preseason. Once he returned in Week 6, Bateman only had a couple of weeks to build a rapport with Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson, before he suffered his own season-ending injury, in turn forcing their backup QB Tyler Huntley into action.
While playing as the third option in a Huntley-led passing game behind Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown, Rashod Bateman still managed to maintain over 0.2 targets-per-route-run, putting him alongside some of the most efficient receivers in the league. Furthermore, it may not seem impressive, but Bateman managed a 16% team target share despite dealing with awful quarterback play alongside both Andrews and Brown.
Last season, Marquise Brown was the WR13 in half-PPR PPG before Lamar Jackson’s injury. Now that Brown has been traded, there is no reason to believe Bateman can’t have similar success. At his current ADP of WR28, Rashod Bateman is one of the easiest smash picks in all of fantasy football.
Elijah Moore, New York Jets
WR31
Towards the back end of last season, from Weeks 8-13, New York Jets’ WR Elijah Moore went on an absolute tear. Over that span, he was the WR4 with 16.1 half-PPR PPG, behind only Justin Jefferson, Deebo Samuel, and Cooper Kupp. Moore was on pace to have an outstanding late breakout before his season abruptly ended due to injury.
However, it is also important to note that within those six games, Jets’ QBs Zach Wilson, Mike White, and Joe Flacco played two games each. Elijah Moore is clearly capable of producing fantasy-relevant numbers no matter who is throwing him the ball, which is especially important considering Wilson’s preseason injury that could sideline him for the beginning of the year.
However, the Jets’ recent decision to select former Ohio State WR Garrett Wilson 10th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft seems to be the main reason for Moore’s ADP being set at WR31, despite clearly breaking out as a rookie.
While I do believe Wilson is an extremely talented receiver, there is more than enough opportunity in this offense for both to be relevant for fantasy football. During Moore’s six-week breakout last season, he averaged 8.5 targets per game, while the combination of Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder, Braxton Berrios, and Denzel Mims averaged 16 targets per game throughout that stretch.
Heading into Elijah Moore’s second season, it is very likely that he maintains the same target pace as last season, while Garrett Wilson commands a majority of the targets previously held by those rotational players. Don’t overthink it, take the massive discount on this young, ultra-talented receiver on an ascending offense.
Kadarius Toney, New York Giants
WR44
New York Giants WR Kadarius Toney already displayed his immense talents as a rookie, putting up a 13-10-189 stat line in his fifth game, good for the 8th-most single-game rookie receiving yards over the last twenty years.
Even better, last season, Toney was one of just seven wide receivers who had at least 0.25 targets-per-route-run and 2.50 yards-per-route-run, placing him alongside some of the best talents in the league:
- Cooper Kupp (WR1)
- Deebo Samuel (WR2)
- Davante Adams (WR3)
- Justin Jefferson (WR4)
- Ja’Maar Chase (WR5)
- Antonio Brown (WR6)
- Kadarius Toney (WR68)
In fact, Toney was actually ranked #1 among all WRs in TPRR and #6 in YPRR, proving to be one of the most efficient receivers in all of football last year. Meanwhile, Giants’ free-agency splurge Kenny Golladay averaged just 2.6 receptions per game over his 14 games last season.
Clearly, Kadarius Toney is the alpha receiver for this Giants’ offense that looks to be playing from behind quite often. If he can stay healthy, his current ADP of WR44 could make Toney one of the biggest steals at the position in all of fantasy football.
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