Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - US Open

Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) provides free PGA betting picks for the US Open. Breaking $100 is a golf betting guide, using $100 across various bets.

After many weeks of sharing our gambling trials and tribulations together, I am boarding a cruise ship and unplugging for a week. For those of you that are familiar with my personality, it will come as no surprise that I will be the official Flower Bro for the wedding taking place on the "Mariner Of The Seas". If you have yet to watch my YouTube podcast, "Back 9 Bets" go check it out and then maybe you will understand why I am extremely excited for this opportunity. If you don't know what a Flower Bro is, feel free to YouTube that too.

My wife has left a detailed and structured list for our dog sitter who will be taking care of Ernie (Els) and Phoebe (Buffay) while we are gone, and I will be doing a similar thing with Breaking $100 bets. I have included a screenshot of my model that includes odds thresholds for top-20 or top-40 bets for each golfer. Although I will be sipping on my 11th Pina Colada by the time placing odds are posted, the model should provide enough guidance to get you through the third major of the year.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Course Breakdown and Key Stats

The Country Club, Par: 70, Yardage: 7,264, Greens: Bent/Poa, Designer: Willie Thompson

The RBC Canadian Open primed us for The Country Club, as we head to yet another course that has not been part of the tour schedule recently, ultimately lacking any historical data to digest. The US Open website provides hole-by-hole flyovers which we used to derive theoretical approach proximities that we can expect this week.

Three Par 4s play under 375 yards with one of them drivable at 310 yards. Another five holes should see an abundance of wedges being fired at pins, presuming the tee shot finds the fairway. Eight holes, including three Par 3s should produce approach shots from 175-225 yards which nerds out to 44% of shots from that range. One of the two Par 5s seems reachable with a good drive, while the 619-yard 14th hole should play as a classic "three-shotter" for most of the field lacking extreme distance.

When in doubt, approach it out. With no historical data to lean on, we can always find comfort in resorting to an approach-heavy model as strokes gained approach is generally the best predictor of success on any golf course. If rumors are true about the rough being thick and nasty, strokes gained off the tee will be emphasized a lot more than usual. Whether its distance or accuracy that gains you strokes, we don't really care which it is as long as you are a long-term gainer with the driver. We do lean slightly in favor of distance, though.

With bunkers guarding all 18 greens and thick rough engulfing any ball that escapes a sandy demise, strokes gained around the green will be essential to remain in contention. Instead of cranking up the strokes gained putting metric, we did that to bogey avoidance, as we want golfers that earn a living on tour by making pars. An impressive bogey avoidance ranking hopefully includes all things needed to handle the tough conditions around The Country Club.

Below are the settings for the model:

• We use two seasons of data for all metrics that don't have an L24 (last 24 rounds). "Szn Weight" is comprised of 50% 2022 stats and 50% 2021 stats.
• Golfer power rankings are generated with stats (80%), OWGR (10%), and L24 strokes gained total (10%)
• The combination of stats that make up 80% of a golfer's power ranking
• This is getting published before the end of the RBC Canadian Open so L24 will be as recent as the Memorial.

Outrights

Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $13 of our $100 to net $110 or more.

Below are the five guys we like this week and their respective stats. All of them have been playing well recently and three of them have a blue box which highlights an elite trait. The two guys that don't have an elite trait, rightfully have the highest odds of the five but they do have at least two stats that rank inside the top-12.

Jordan Spieth ($3.50 @ +3500 on DK)

This number seems real enticing for someone with his current ball striking and around the green magic. Jordan has been in exceptional form from tee to green over the last little while. It's what happens when he gets on the greens that is the biggest concern as he ranks as the 133rd putter over the last 24 rounds. I would imagine he has spent countless hours on a putting green since the Memorial, working on his recent short-range atrocities. If he continues to dominate from tee to green and his putting reverts back to "go get that!" status, Spieth could very well be the US Open champion on Sunday afternoon.

Sam Burns ($3.06 @ +4000 on DK)

Although he ranks two spots higher than Spieth in the model, Sam Burns is most likely getting better odds as he has never won a major before. There is a first time for everything and the three-time winner on the season has the driver, approach play, and putter needed to succeed around The Country Club. The around the green game has been okay lately, with his only recent below-average performances coming at The Masters and The PGA which are both majors, but both of those courses have chipping areas from tight lies, which I tend to believe Burns struggles from. This week he will be hacking it out of thick cabbage-like rough around the greens which should help nullify the only area of his game that is not exceptional. Sam Burns has the potential to make his fourth win on the season a US Open.

Cameron Young ($3.06 @ +4000 on DK)

Some of Cameron Young's recent stats are going to be heavily skewed by his 84 he shot at the Memorial last Sunday. Thats okay, its probably the reason why we are getting some really juicy odds on a guy who is built to dismantle a golf course like this. Luxurious length off the tee is his main advantage and if we ignore that gross Sunday slip up which could have easily been another top-10, Young finished T3, T2, and T3 in his three starts prior. With his most recent T3 coming at a major, Young has all the tools and confidence at his disposal to land his first tour win...at The US Open!!!

Max Homa ($1.85 @ +6600 on PointsBet)

 Max Homa is grossly mispriced, in my opinion, as he has been playing exceptional golf recently. He has won twice this season already and has only missed two cuts. His game has length, accuracy, and a putter that can easily make up for an around the green game that can run hot and cold. His approach play has yet to lose any strokes on the year and is currently ranked 10th in a field full of ball-striking superstars. Homa's biggest red flag was his inability to play well at majors but his T13 at the PGA was all we needed to see before placing a bet on one of golfs rising stars, who is absolutely capable of winning the US Open at 66-1.

Keegan Bradley ($1.53 @ +8000 on DK)

We refuse to give up on Keegan Bradley's renewed putting ability, which ranks 10th in the field over the last 24 rounds. I know, right? His ball striking has seen a slight decline lately, probably because he has been spending every hour on the putting greens. At 80-1 we are once again taking a chance on this major winner, who has a baseline tee-to-green game that could easily have won him a few more majors had his putter been as sensational as it has been recently. We will roll the dice that his putter remains a weapon with hopes and dreams of his world-class ball striking returning to win him his second major.

First-Round Leaders

This week you are rolling out all five of your outrights but be sure to apply some logic to the situation if there is a sizeable weather advantage for either wave of tee times on Thursday. They are playing in the state where Bill Belichick coaches so you never know what conditions to expect (I'm a Jets fan and I'm not at all salty about the patriots dynasty over the last two decades).

Hopefully we get similar odds to our outright numbers, but my worry is that with most of our guys priced in the middle of the board, we may see some of the FRL odds shorter than their outright numbers. It's okay, it's a major, and we have practiced bank roll management successfully enough all season to afford a tiny splurge on the FRL market. I use oddscheker.com to help find the best odds across books.

From a dollar standpoint, we are betting a total of $12? on five guys to net $110 or more.

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Placings

"Go on without me..." he whispers, from the deck of SS Pina Colada. By now you should have $75 remaining in the bank, of which you will be splitting $70 on any golfers that have better odds than the "Maniac's Odds" column in the below screenshot. If the FRL market was a little stingy, adjust the $70 accordingly. Justin Thomas through Jordan Spieth will be the most likely top-20 bets, with Sungjae Im kicking off the top-40 tier. The guys in pink are those who I think stand the best chance to exceed the Maniac's threshold, but I could also be very wrong. If for some weird reason we don't land up with at least five guys to bet on in this market, feel free to use a little intuition to bump a player up the rankings a tad if you see a certain stat that you think may be a game changer for him.

BetMGM is usually our book of choice for most of these bets as their odds are typically the best and they pay ties in full. They have had T40s listed for the last few majors so hopefully they do it again.

The Farewell Fiver

Rory McIlroy (T5: $5 @ +??? on ???)

Nothing seems more likely than a Rory McIlroy backdoor T5, right? His driver and short game should give him a sizeable advantage over the field and once he takes control of his nerves, he should charge up the leaderboard. I really wanted to bet him outright, but the iron play needs to be truly amazing for us to bite at 14-1, and his wedges have just not been up to standard.

That concludes this week's Breaking $100 for the US Open. Clear the schedule for the weekend and enjoy the golf.

And as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

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