2024 NFL Scouting Combine Fallout: Risers and Fallers

March 5, 2024

Rotoballer analyst Brandon Murchison reviews the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine with players who performed well and improved their draft stock, while others did not meet expectations and could slide down the rankings.

As the dust settles on the NFL Scouting Combine, fantasy football enthusiasts are eagerly dissecting the performances of rising stars and assessing the fallout for established players. The Combine serves as a pivotal moment where college prospects showcase their athleticism, agility, and football acumen, often reshaping perceptions and draft stock. For fantasy managers, this event offers a unique glimpse into the potential impact of rookies and the shifting landscape of veteran players. With standout performances igniting optimism and unexpected disappointments raising concerns, the post-Combine analysis becomes a crucial guide for fantasy drafts and roster adjustments.

Among the notable risers are those who surpassed expectations with their Combine showings, signaling their readiness to make an immediate impact in the NFL and potentially in fantasy lineups. These emerging talents capture the attention of fantasy managers seeking hidden gems and game-changing rookies. Conversely, the Combine also exposes vulnerabilities and shortcomings, leading to the reevaluation of established stars who may face increased competition or questions about their durability and skillset. As the fantasy football community pores over the data and evaluates the implications of Combine performances, the landscape of draft boards and player valuations undergoes a significant transformation, setting the stage for an exhilarating season ahead.

Being in Indianapolis in person, I was allowed to gain access to the prospects on a level I would have never imagined. Being in the press room and being able to ask players about their mentality and preparations for the Combine was amazing. On top of this, by having a bird's eye view of the testing drills, you get a better grasp of just what is involved as the prospects look to prove themselves to potential teams searching for the right fit for their franchise. After this weekend, we saw several players improve their draft stock immensely, while others fell short of the mark. Conversely, this will provide an immediate impact for fantasy managers who are looking to prepare for dynasty league drafts or even get a head start in best-ball drafts before the prospect value begins to sway.

RISERS

Jaylen Wright - RB, Tennessee

A player that I was extremely high on heading into the Combine, Wright did not disappoint. Unfortunately, he was not available during the press day, but it did not deter him from putting together one of the best workouts at the running back position on the weekend. Wright was one of the more explosive players at the position for the 2024 draft class and the numbers spoke to that.

The official 4.38 40-yard dash time ranked second at RB for the Combine, but it was his 15.18 mph over the first five yards that was eye-popping and set a record. On top of this, his vertical jump (38 inches) and broad jump (11.0 feet 2.0 inches) both tested at an elite level. Looking ahead to the NFL Draft, Wright may very well be in the conversation of one of the first running backs selected. Depending on his landing spot, he could become the most productive back from a fantasy standpoint to be drafted in 2024.

Isaac Guerendo - RB, Louisville

Coming into the Combine, Guerendo was a relative unknown to the fantasy community. After his four seasons at Wisconsin, he transferred to Louisville, where he split time in the backfield with Jawhar Jordan. Although he was splitting reps with Jordan, Guerendo went on to put together his best collegiate season (810 rushing yards, 22 receptions, and 11 touchdowns). Measuring in at 6-foot-0 and 221 pounds, Guerendo's 4.33 40 (fastest among the RB position) became an immediate head-turner. Looking across the board at all his testing metrics, he performed very well. According to NextGen stats, his score of 74 placed him at RB10 after all was said and done.

Now as we sit post-Combine, many analysts will go back and give Guerendo a second look in evaluation, resulting in a correction to his ranking at the position. Look for Guerendo to go from an undrafted free agent in the NFL Draft to a back that we could see being selected early on Day 3. He will also go from an afterthought in dynasty drafts to a player worth grabbing in the middle rounds of the rookie draft.

Xavier Worthy - WR, Texas

The player that is being most talked about after the 2024 Scouting Combine is the "fastest player in the league", Xavier Worthy. Before his record-setting 4.21 40, I was able to talk to Worthy during the media day. He pointed out that most scouts knew about the speed aspect of his game, but he felt that no one was talking about what he could do as a route runner at the position.

Since he did not compete in the on-field drills after the 40-yard dash, he will now move towards his Pro Day to showcase this skillset for the scouts and evaluators. He has shown during his three seasons at Texas that he can be a target-earning receiver at the next level. Add in an ideal landing spot in the NFL Draft, and you have all the makings of the next great receiver in the league from a fantasy standpoint.

Ricky Pearsall - WR, Florida

After shining at the Senior Bowl, Pearsall became a very intriguing prospect heading into the Combine as many were wondering if he would maintain the momentum that he built. From an athletic testing perspective, according to NextGen stats, his score of 83 was good enough to place him eighth at the position on the strength of his 4.41 40 and an extremely impressive vertical jump (42 inches). His shuttle (9.47) and 3-cone (9.77) drill times both placed him among the best at the position and are a testament to a player who will show strong change of direction characteristics at the next level.

Pearsall's detractors will point to the lack of college production as a knock that he will not be able to gain targets consistently in the NFL. However, much of that had more to do with the Florida offense being somewhat subpar. After the Combine, Pearsall has undoubtedly put himself into the Day 2 discussion at the NFL Draft. This also inherently raises his value for fantasy managers looking to add depth in rookie drafts.

FALLERS

Audric Estime - RB, Notre Dame

Over the last two seasons, Estime was one of the most productive running backs in college, which culminated in an impressive 94.2 PFF grade in 2023. So, heading into the Combine, many were hoping to see Estime test well and solidify himself as one of the top backs in the class. That simply just did not happen after he posted the worst 40-yard dash time for running backs (4.71) and did not participate in either the shuttle or 3-cone drills.

His score of 68, according to NextGen stats, placed him at 28th in the position, while his total Combine score, including his production number from college, came out to 76 (RB6). Estime's value among the fantasy community is going to sway heavily after the Combine and will be a true testament to how you value athletic testing against college production. For me, this does put a knock on Estime in my rookie rankings as I also worry about his potential landing spot along with the workload split in the backfield.

Bucky Irving - RB, Oregon

One of the biggest disappointments as we exit the 2024 Scouting Combine was the performance of Bucky Irving. Coming into the draft process, Irving was another highly productive running back who was heavily utilized in Oregon's spread offense. Before his testing, I was able to get some questions in with Irving, where I asked about his thoughts on how well he thought his testing would go, including what his 40-yard time would be. He did not want to commit to a number, and following his performance, you could see why. His 4.55 official time was terrible if you factor in his measurables from the Combine (5-foot-9, 192 pounds).

This could be a cause for concern for some NFL scouts as he could be pigeonholed into strictly being considered as a passing down back at the next level. If he can find a landing spot in the NFL Draft where an Offensive Coordinator can be creative with how Irving is utilized, his value could indeed rebound. However, I will be lower than the consensus on Irving in rookie rankings as I weigh all the factors from the Combine.

Brenden Rice - WR, USC

The son of Jerry Rice, Brenden came into the Combine as another player who had a successful showing at the Senior Bowl a month ago. I was intrigued as to how he would handle the testing process in Indianapolis because speed is simply not the name of his game. This was on full display as his athletic testing score (71) resulted in a ranking of WR31 at the Combine. Nothing stood out as being great or elite. It was simply just plain good. Factoring in his lack of consistent production at USC, questions can be asked about his potential value at the next level and exactly what he can bring.

With this in mind, I asked Rice during the media portion what evaluators should be looking for in Rice if they deem him to be a fit for their roster. He responded that the team would be getting an aggressive receiver who loves to compete against man coverage and utilizes his strength as a blocker in the running game. From a fantasy perspective, Rice will be heavily dependent on the right landing spot as I believe his ceiling could be quite low as he lacks the elite athletic traits at the position.

Ja'Lynn Polk - WR, Washington

Another Pac-12 receiver who saw a large bump in usage and production during the 2023 season at Washington, Polk needed a solid showing at the Combine to keep his name among the top of the position in this draft class. But much like Rice, Polk's athletic testing numbers came out somewhat disappointing. His 4.52 official time in the 40-yard dash was a contributor to limiting his NextGen stats athletic score (80), resulting in a rank of WR17. Polk has the prototypical size for what you would want at the position, but as you see with the testing scores, he will lack the acceleration to separate from cornerbacks at the NFL level. This will undoubtedly hurt his target earning potential, resulting in very inconsistent production from a fantasy standpoint.

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