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2017 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Outfield

Holiday lights adorn the streets, the hot chocolate and eggnog is flowing, and all the while you've hopefully been keeping warm with this steady stream of fantasy baseball rankings courtesy of your favorite RotoBaller writers.

Today we'll spread the outfield cheer. As a reminder, this first round of rankings features picks from Bill Dubiel, Brad Johnson, Kyle Bishop, and myself -- Jolly ol' Saint Nick.

If you missed our infield rankings, click the link below. Longtime readers will note that we've switched up the format a bit for this round to allow for a bit more insight into each writer's thought process.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

2017 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Outfield

Ranking Tier Player Brad Kyle Nick Bill Composite
1 1 Mike Trout 1 1 1 1 1
2 1 Mookie Betts 3 2 2 3 2.5
3 1 Kris Bryant 2 3 3 2 2.5
4 2 Charlie Blackmon 4 6 4 4 4.5
5 2 Bryce Harper 6 4 5 7 5.5
6 2 Trea Turner 5 9 6 5 6.25
7 2 Nelson Cruz 9 5 7 9 7.5
8 2 Starling Marte 10 8 9 6 8.25
9 2 Ryan Braun 7 11 8 10 9
10 2 J.D. Martinez 13 7 11 8 9.75
11 2 Yoenis Cespedes 14 10 10 11 11.25
12 3 George Springer 12 12 13 12 12.25
13 3 Giancarlo Stanton 8 13 14 18 13.25
14 3 A.J. Pollock 11 17 12 17 14.25
15 3 Christian Yelich 17 14 18 15 16
16 3 Carlos Gonzalez 20 15 17 13 16.25
17 3 Wil Myers 15 20 15 19 17.25
18 3 Ian Desmond 23 18 20 14 18.75
19 3 Kyle Schwarber 24 16 23 16 19.75
20 3 Justin Upton 21 21 16 24 20.5
21 3 Gregory Polanco 19 26 19 22 21.5
22 4 Khris Davis 27 22 21 25 23.75
23 4 Odubel Herrera 25 23 27 21 24
24 4 Jose Bautista 16 25 28 30 24.75
25 4 Jackie Bradley Jr. 32 19 29 20 25
26 4 Andrew McCutchen 29 24 24 23 25
27 4 Jose Ramirez 18 32 22 31 25.75
28 4 Matt Kemp 30 27 26 27 27.5
29 4 David Dahl 26 31 25 29 27.75
30 5 Miguel Sano 34 29 30 32 31.25
31 5 Adam Jones 39 28 39 26 33
32 5 Dexter Fowler 22 41 31 41 33.75
33 5 Hunter Pence 35 34 33 34 34
34 5 Stephen Piscotty 41 30 38 28 34.25
35 5 Ben Zobrist 31 42 32 39 36
36 5 Billy Hamilton 37 35 35 38 36.25
37 5 Kole Calhoun 33 39 36 37 36.25
38 5 Joc Pederson 40 33 41 36 37.5
39 5 Mark Trumbo 43 40 37 37 39.25
40 5 Lorenzo Cain 38 38 44 40 40
41 5 Adam Eaton 44 37 45 35 40.25
42 5 Marcell Ozuna 47 36 48 33 41
43 5 Andrew Benintendi 36 46 34 48 41
44 6 Michael Brantley 42 47 43 46 44.5
45 6 Jose Peraza 28 54 40 56 44.5
46 6 Carlos Beltran 46 43 47 44 45
47 6 Adam Duvall 54 44 42 43 45.75
48 6 Domingo Santana 51 49 50 50 50
49 6 Nomar Mazara 66 45 49 42 50.5
50 6 Carlos Gomez 48 52 53 49 50.5
51 6 Randal Grichuk 52 51 52 53 52
52 6 Curtis Granderson 45 58 46 63 53
53 6 Willson Contreras 60 53 54 52 54.75
54 6 Michael Conforto 68 48 59 45 55
55 6 Byron Buxton 56 55 56 54 55.25
56 7 Jayson Werth 53 57 64 61 58.75
57 7 David Peralta 73 50 68 47 59.5
58 7 Yasmany Tomas 64 59 60 55 59.5
59 7 Melky Cabrera 57 61 62 59 59.75
60 7 Matt Holliday 63 65 57 57 60.5
61 7 Rajai Davis 69 56 69 52 61.5
62 7 Josh Reddick 50 74 55 67 61.5
63 7 Cameron Maybin 49 80 51 72 63
64 7 Ender Inciarte 65 66 65 68 66
65 7 Jacoby Ellsbury 61 73 66 66 66.5
66 7 Kevin Kiermaier 59 69 75 64 66.75
67 7 Hunter Renfroe 76 64 67 60 66.75
68 7 Shin-Soo Choo 55 76 58 78 66.75
69 7 Max Kepler 80 63 71 58 68
70 7 Brett Gardner 58 75 61 79 68.25
71 8 Hernan Perez 81 62 72 65 70
72 8 Jay Bruce 86 60 73 62 70.25
73 8 Yasiel Puig 67 68 77 70 70.5
74 8 Jason Heyward 72 67 78 69 71.5
75 8 Corey Dickerson 70 79 70 71 72.5
76 8 Leonys Martin 74 71 80 73 74.5
77 8 Alex Gordon 71 72 79 77 74.75
78 8 Brandon Moss 62 87 63 90 75.5
79 8 Michael Saunders 75 81 81 74 77.75
80 8 Josh Bell 79 86 76 76 79.25
81 8 Keon Broxton 98 78 74 75 81.25
82 8 Alex Dickerson 78 82 84 84 82
83 8 Steven Souza Jr. 82 83 88 81 83.5
84 8 Nick Markakis 84 88 86 82 85
85 9 Chris Owings 88 91 83 85 86.75
86 9 Lonnie Chisenhall 77 99 85 86 86.75
87 9 Danny Valencia 100 84 82 88 88.5
88 9 Melvin Upton Jr. 85 92 87 91 88.75
89 9 Hyun Soo Kim 99 77 101 83 90
90 9 Andrew Toles 115 70 95 80 90
91 9 Mallex Smith 83 98 89 97 91.75
92 9 Kevin Pillar 89 101 91 87 92
93 9 Scott Schebler 106 85 94 89 93.5
94 9 Aaron Altherr 92 90 100 94 94
95 9 Travis Jankowski 87 100 90 101 94.5
96 9 Manuel Margot 108 89 93 92 95.5
97 9 Roman Quinn 94 93 99 100 96.5
98 9 Angel Pagan 97 97 101 93 97
99 9 Raimel Tapia 90 101 97 101 97.25
100 9 Brandon Drury 93 101 98 101 98.25
101 10 Chris Coghlan 91 101 101 101 98.5
102 10 Robbie Grossman 102 94 101 99 99
103 10 Jarrod Dyson 104 95 101 98 99.5
104 10 Jorge Soler 95 101 101 101 99.5
105 10 Aaron Judge 111 101 92 95 99.75
106 10 Tyler Naquin 101 101 101 96 99.75
107 10 Howie Kendrick 96 101 101 101 99.75
108 10 Blake Swihart 105 96 101 101 100.75
109 10 Seth Smith 103 101 101 101 101.5
110 10 Denard Span 107 101 101 101 102.5
111 10 Andre Ethier 109 101 101 101 103
112 10 Trayce Thompson 115 101 96 101 103.25
113 10 Abraham Almonte 110 101 101 101 103.25
114 10 Colby Rasmus 112 101 101 101 103.75
115 10 Ben Revere 113 101 101 101 104
116 10 Gerardo Parra 114 101 101 101 104.25

 

Are there any picks you want to defend?

Kyle: I hewed pretty closely to the consensus for the most part, and where I did deviate, Bill mostly rode my coattails. A couple that stand out:

I'm the low man on Polanco. I am a fan - he was the subject of one of my earliest RotoBaller articles, in fact - just not enough of one to have him in the top 25. The pop and speed combo is nice, but he's a neutral asset at best in AVG, and his run production was underwhelming for spending most of the season in prime lineup spots. I'm also wondering if the power spike will hold up and whether he'll run often enough to be a 20/20 threat again. I also come in lowest on Dahl, which surprises me given how much I like him and his lineup/park context. That .404 BABIP is a major red flag; even modest regression would take a chunk out of his value.

On the other side of the equation, I'm championing JBJ. In a vacuum, he and Polanco are pretty close in value, but Bradley enjoys a much more favorable supporting cast and home park. And while I'm on record as thinking that the Great Stolen Base Famine narrative is a bit overblown, speed is a significant part of why I dig Toles so much as a late-round flyer in 2017. There are questions about playing time and lingering makeup concerns, but he's a sneaky 30 SB threat who won't hurt you in any other cats.

Bill: I'm highest on Odubel Herrera, which kind of surprised me. I'm buying into Herrera as a player who is still working towards the peak of his abilities. He improved in almost every category from 2015 to 2016: he nearly doubled his walk rate, cut down on his K-rate, had more steals and runs scored by a healthy margin, and even popped 15 homers thanks to the highest ISO of his career. There isn't a ton to suggest that power will regress, either--he had just a 10.6 HR/FB rate, so I think 15 homers is around where we can expect him from year-to-year. Herrera should be able to sustain a batting average above .280, and with his walk rate improving along with his contact, he should be on base regularly enough to swipe 25-30 bags. As a member of the Phillies, the counting stats will always be somewhat depressed, but Herrera is a multi-category contributor who I am very high on in 2017, especially if he can take another step forward as a complete hitter.

Brad: Rather than specifically defending a bunch of picks, I'll just admit that my first drafts in deep positions like outfield and starting pitcher are...choppy. Yea, Bradley Jr. and Piscotty should probably be a bit higher along with a few others of lesser consequence. I did notice that I seem to value proven 80-grade power over some of the more recent power surge breakouts. Specifically Stanton and Bautista. I may have to chop the legs out from under Joey Bats if he lands in the NL or in the wrong setting. That adjustment can be made if/when it's necessary.

Nick: I'm the only one with Justin Upton above #20, all the way at #16 at that, so I should speak on it. He somehow finished as the 31st outfielder on ESPN's Player Rater despite being atrocious from April 5th through August 20th (13 HRs, .228 average in 474 plate appearances). Then he hits .303 with 18 HRs over his last 152 PAs, and totally redeems himself! Okay, not totally, but I highly doubt he sucks for four and a half months again.

 

Which picks by others look overly bullish/pessimistic?

Nick: I'll understand some skepticism towards the new Jose Ramirez, but Kyle and Bill took it too far. This is a youngster (entering his age-24 season) who has always had plus speed and bat skills. At 23, he appears to have muscled up a bit and added power to the wheels. Mix in that low 10% strikeout rate, and you've got a nice five-category contributor on your hands.

Brad is also noticeably ahead of us on Bautista, but I can't buy in so high. His age-35 season was hamstrung by injuries and underperformance, and now he might not even get to call Toronto's power-friendly park home anymore. His strikeout rate rose by four percent, as did his soft-contact rate. The durability worries me enough to where I can't do top 25, let alone #16.

Kyle: Brad's got Bautista a bit high for my tastes. He's been a monster for the most part this decade, but there are enough reasons for concern (age, health, and not knowing where he'll be in 2017) to give me pause. I expect to adjust his ranking a bit once he signs, but doubt I'll bump him too much higher.

I'm not buying Maybin as a top 50 outfielder, either. Last season was the first time he hit above .270 and there's nothing in his profile to suggest he'll repeat that lofty .315 mark. He also just can't stay healthy, which kills his ability to make a meaningful contribution in any category outside of stolen bases. His totals there are already trending down, and he's about to turn 30. Pass.

I'll set aside my long-running irrational distaste for Jones to point out that despite his flaws as a player, he's averaged 30 HR, 90 R, and 90 RBI over the last five seasons and never hit below .265. At the very least, it's bizarre to rank him 10 spots lower than Kemp, who's essentially the same player, a year older, and on a worse team.

Brad: Stanton as the 18th outfielder (Bill) seems a little silly. This is a perennial first round pick we're talking about. The power bonanza makes players of Stanton's profile a little less valuable. However, if you want to veer away from 20 home run threats for some steals (i.e. Peraza), you'll need a couple Stanton's to make up the difference. If Stanton is sitting around in the 6th, 7th, or 8th rounds as Bill's ranking implies, you have the potential for a massive bargain. Bill clearly doesn't value the profile since he's also low man on Bautista (30).

My colleagues seem to really expect Mazara to break out. I really like Mazara too, but mostly in a dynasty setting. Mazara has a lot of adjustments to make before he's more than a league average hitter. In a redraft league and given his inability to steal bases, that's an uninspiring profile.

Bill: I'm not sure what Brad and Nick need to see to believe in Jackie Bradley, Jr. As Kyle so eloquently put it, I am in fact riding his coattails on the young center fielder, just because I don't see any reason why Bradley, Jr. would significantly regress from his outstanding 2016 campaign. His BABIP was .312 in 2016, so I don't see his batting average sinking much lower than the .267 it was last year. The counting stats will always be there hitting in the potent BoSox lineup...I'm just not sure I can find any reasons to have JBJ outside of the top 25 at this point.

I don't get the hate on Piscotty 2 Hotty either. He'll have Dexter Fowler, Aledmys Diaz and Matt Carpenter setting the table for him, so he's got a very real shot at 100 RBI. Add in maybe 25 homers, 85 runs scored and a batting average around .275 and you've got an easy top-25 outfielder. Even if those are generous projections, I don't see how he falls outside the top 35 this year as Brad and Nick have him.

 




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