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Hey there RotoBallers! In this article, I will be taking a look at some of my favorite Yahoo DFS lineups picks for the NFL Playoffs Divisional Round slate. These DFS picks are based on a multitude of factors including matchup, talent, recent performance, Vegas odds, and pricing on Yahoo.
The Divisional Round brings us a small slate with just four games. Of the four games, we have two projected to be high-scoring in the Titans-Patriots (47.0-point over/under) and Saints-Vikings game (45.0-point over/under). The Jaguars-Steelers and Falcons-Eagles games are both expected to be low scoring, with over/unders set at 41.0 and 41.5 points respectively.
Of the four games, the Patriots have the highest implied team total at 30.25 points while the Jaguars and Titans have the lowest at 16.75 points. On to the picks!
Quarterback Picks for Yahoo DFS
Tom Brady, New England Patriots vs. TEN, $41
The Patriots are surely itching to get back to just playing football after a drama-filled bye week that saw an ESPN story question just how much longer their dynasty will last. Drama aside, don't expect the Patriots to have much trouble against a Titans team that barely snuck into the playoffs and shocked the Chiefs in the Wild Card round. Brady is the most expensive option on Yahoo but he is also the highest projected quarterback on the slate with the most explosive ceiling. Unlike the other similarly-priced top quarterbacks on the slate, Brady has a plus matchup against a leaky Tennessee pass defense that ranked 24th in DVOA in the regular season. Brady is the top QB option on the slate by a wide margin and can be used in cash or GPPs. He may not be the best play from a point per dollar standpoint but he's the safest option on the slate.
Case Keenum, Minnesota Vikings vs. NO, $29
Keenum's success in 2017 was one of the better stories of the season. The former journeyman quarterback leaned heavily on the talents of Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph, Latavius Murray, and Jerick McKinnon to post a career-best 3,547 yards and 22 touchdowns while only tossing seven interceptions. Coming off a first-round bye, Keenum will have his work cut out for him as the Vikings welcome a New Orleans pass defense that finished the season ranked fifth in DVOA. Keenum isn't a safe play but his offense has the second-highest implied team total on the slate at 24.5 points, putting him on the radar as a decent option based on the limited options on the slate and on how excellent his offense has been this season. Vegas likes the Vikings' chances as they have them as four-point favorites in a game with a decent 45-point over/under.
Running Back Picks for Yahoo DFS
Dion Lewis, New England Patriots vs. TEN, $22
Lewis has been absolutely sublime since Rex Burkhead injured his knee ahead of Week 16. Since then, the Patriots have deployed Lewis as their bell cow back and he hasn't disappointed, rolling up 222 rushing yards, 64 receiving yards, and four total touchdowns in those two games. Burkhead has returned to practice but by all accounts, he isn't moving well and is unlikely to play this weekend. That means another week of locking in Lewis as a top fantasy running back. At just $22, he is an absolute steal. Make sure you have heavy exposure to Lewis in your Yahoo contests this weekend.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans @ NE, $21
Henry is in a situation similar to that of Dion Lewis. Due to the injury to DeMarco Murray, Henry will operate as the Titans' lead back for a third consecutive week. The second-year runner has impressed in his two games as the team's main runner, racking up 207 rushing yards and two touchdowns over the past two games. His low salary of $21 still hasn't been adjusted to account for his increased opportunity of late, making him an excellent value this weekend. The only concern here is that the Titans are significant road underdogs and may be forced to abandon the run earlier than they would like but Tennessee has been pretty committed to running the ball and could use that as a strategy to attempt to keep the ball out of the hands of the New England offense.
Wide Receiver Picks for Yahoo DFS
Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings vs. NO, $29
With the Saints expected to use top cornerback Marshon Lattimore to shadow Stefon Diggs on the outside, look for Thielen to take advantage of a much softer matchup against P.J. Williams in the slot. In his rookie season, Lattimore has instantly developed into one of the top cornerbacks in the league. Look for him to blanket Diggs throughout the contest which should funnel extra targets toward Thielen. As mentioned above, the Vikings have the second-highest implied team total on the slate. Thielen was one of the more consistent fantasy receivers in the league this season and is a rock-solid option, especially in cash games.
Ted Ginn, New Orleans Saints @ MIN, $12
With four catches for 115 yards and a touchdown, Ginn showed us in the Wild Card round that he still has plenty of upside, even at 32-years-old. The veteran wideout should be in line for another big game as the Saints go on the road to tangle with the Vikings. Minnesota will use top cornerback Xavier Rhodes to shadow Michael Thomas, which will benefit Ginn greatly. While he isn't likely to be heavily-targeted, Ginn still has big-play upside. On a normal slate, Ginn would be a better option in GPPs, but on a small slate such as this, he is fine for all contests, especially at just $2 over the player minimum price on Yahoo.
Tight End Picks for Yahoo DFS
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles vs. ATL, $26
While Rob Gronkowski is the top tight end play, it is worth considering Ertz at a $6 discount instead of the New England tight end. Ertz has remained a fantastic fantasy option, even with the injury to quarterback Carson Wentz. Backup signal-caller Nick Foles has looked to Ertz often, targeting him on the highest percentage of his pass attempts this season. The Falcons don't represent a plus matchup for tight ends, but they haven't been especially tough on them, either. In the regular season, Atlanta ranked 14th in DVOA against the position and allowed the 12th fewest points to the position.
Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings vs. NO, $17
The Saints were extremely tough on enemy tight ends this season, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game on Yahoo and ranking sixth in DVOA. That being said, Panthers tight end Greg Olsen shredded them for eight catches, 107 yards, and a touchdown in the Wild Card round. While we can't expect Rudolph to do that, the Vikings are expected to score plenty of points this weekend and Rudolph continues to operate as one of the team's top red zone options. This is a better play in tournaments.
Defense/Special Teams Pick for Yahoo DFS
New England Patriots vs. TEN, $16
While the Jaguars employ the most talented defense left in the playoffs, they have a road date against an explosive Steelers offense. The Patriots defense, meanwhile, sets up as an excellent fantasy option at home against a Titans offense that was 23rd in the league in total yardage and 19th in points per game. Vegas has assigned the lowest implied team total of the slate to the Titans, expecting them to score just 16.75 points. While the overall numbers on the New England defense don't look great, they did improve dramatically as the season went on.
