NFL Best Bets, Player Props for ProphetX (Week 1)

September 10, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo's expert NFL Week 1 best bets and top player props for ProphetX. Take advantage of peer-to-peer odds with no vig and lock in your trades today!

The first two games are just getting us warmed up for the first big NFL Sunday! Set those fantasy lineups and get some wagers in on your favorite teams and players to make your Sunday viewing experience even that more enjoyable.

If you're tired of getting juiced-up odds on traditional sportsbooks, then consider the sports prediction market! Our partners at ProphetX have constructed an excellent platform and are offering some of the best odds in the industry!

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs.  Now here are some of my favorite NFL bets and player props for Week 1 on ProphetX!

What is ProphetX?

ProphetX is an exciting platform and one of the top peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. Since users are technically playing against each other, and not the house, there are consistently better positions to be taken on sporting events and outcomes, and therefore more potential profits for correct positions.

Users can also set their own price on markets and wait for other users to match them. ProphetX allows users a lot of flexibility in that regard and an opportunity to try and corner their own market.

ProphetX is legal in 48 states and is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

ProphetX Promo Code and Welcome Bonus

Use code BALLER, and you'll receive $20 in bonus cash once you deposit and play through $10.

You also get six free months of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS, and more!

You can claim your welcome offer to ProphetX right here!

NFL Picks Against the Spread

All odds listed are from ProphetX and are listed in percentages, not traditional American odds.

Houston Texans Moneyline (48%)

Home underdogs are almost always an appealing target, and this Houston team is my absolute favorite underdog in Week 1.

I think the Texans are a legit Super Bowl contender and have just as much of a chance at winning the AFC as any of the other top-tier teams. That includes the Bills, who have a solid all-around team but continue to come up short in the postseason.

Houston matches up well with the Bills. They have an elite defense that can slow down Josh Allen and company, and they want to play a ball-control style of offense that can be effective against this "bend-but-don't-break" Bills defense.

Houston has beaten the Bills the last two years in a row. Now they get them at home in the opener, in what should be one of the best matchups on the slate. The value is on Houston here; they have the mojo on this Bills team, and I think they'll have just enough offense to outlast the Bills in this one.

Compare at +100 on DraftKings, where a 100-dollar bet returns $200 in winnings. The same bet would yield 208 dollars on ProphetX.

Chicago Bears -3 (51%)

The Bears were -2.5 the last few weeks and have finally moved to -3 in most markets. But the good news is that while we get a better return on our investment at -3, we still have some safety here with the chance of a push if they win by just a field goal.

Chicago is on the road here, but coming off a big year under Ben Johnson as they came up just short against the Rams in the playoffs last season. I am not sure if they can repeat that run, but their offense should be a force again this year with Caleb Williams coming into his own and having a full arsenal of weapons at his disposal.

The Panthers haven't done much to improve their roster this offseason, in my opinion. There are still major questions about Bryce Young's ability as a starting quarterback in this league, and the offense is missing their two best starting offensive lineman with both tackles out.

This Carolina defense was a below-average unit last season, too. Chicago's defense worries me a bit, too, but the talent difference on offense is enough for me to comfortably back Chicago to cover here.

Compare at +-118 on DraftKings, where a 100-dollar bet returns $185 in winnings. The same bet would yield 196 dollars on ProphetX.

NFL Rushing Prop Bets

All odds listed are from ProphetX and are listed in percentages, not traditional American odds.

Kyler Murray OVER 22.5 Rushing Yards (52.6%)

Murray only appeared in five games for the Cardinals last year, but he went over this number in all five of them, averaging 34.6 yards rushing per game.

Scrambling is just such a big part of Murray's game, and he's broken off so many exciting long runs in his career. He's truly a lot of fun to watch and the kind of unique athlete who can go over this prop total in one long run.

1st and 20? Easy work for @K1

📺: #DETvsAZ on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/H7UIqh71g2

— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024

If we go back over his last 30 games, spanning three years, Murray has a 63% hit rate on this number. There's no reason to think he won't be running in Minnesota, too, as he did in Arizona.

NFL Receiving Prop Bets

All odds listed are from ProphetX and are listed in percentages, not traditional American odds.

Chris Olave OVER 76.5 receiving yards (49%)

This game between Detroit and New Orleans continues to see action on the over and now has a total of 52.5. It could easily be the top shootout on the slate this week as it's in a dome and features two offenses that we expect to be pretty good.

Detroit's offense is already an established juggernaut, but New Orleans is an emerging unit led by second-year quarterback Tyler Shough.

It was Shough who energized this team last season and brought the best out of Olave, who had the best season of his career and finally managed to stay healthy for the most part.

Olave averaged 82.1 yards per game in the seven games that Tyler Shough started. And while 76.5 feels like a big number out of the gate, he's expected to see a ton of volume in this passing game with Jordyn Tyson out with an injury already to start the season.

Whether the Saints are going blow for blow with the Lions in a shootout, or they're playing catch-up after going down early, this sets up Olave to have a big game against a Detroit secondary that will be missing several key starters.

Anytime Touchdown Bets

All odds listed are from ProphetX and are listed in percentages, not traditional American odds.

Dallas Goedert Anytime Touchdown (31.75%)

Goedert had a banner year in 2025, catching 11 touchdowns for Philadelphia and garnering a 32.7% red zone target share. He added two more touchdown catches in the postseason loss to the 49ers, too. They even schemed him the ball here on a run play.

TOUCHDOWN DALLAS GOEDERT‼️ pic.twitter.com/gPMBmDgM7w

— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) January 11, 2026

A.J. Brown, who was another big-bodied target near the goal line, is gone. So don't be surprised if Goedert continues to be one of Jalen Hurts' top options down inside the 10-yard line.

Washington really struggled against tight ends last season, ranking 26th in yards per game to the position and 30th in touchdowns allowed. Goedert only faced them once last season, but secured a TD catch in that one. I'm not betting on too many touchdown props in Week 1, but this one feels like a slam dunk (okay, I know it's not basketball season yet, sorry!)

A $10 winning position on this market returns $31.50.

Good luck if you're tailing these bets, and thanks for reading.

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