NFL Betting Picks and Props for Novig (Week 1)

September 11, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo offers his top NFL sports predictions for Novig markets in Week 1 on the 2026-2027 season. Use his recommended picks to win on Novig.

Even though we haven't seen these teams yet this season, we still know quite a bit about their tendencies and personnel. Some teams will surprise in Week 1, but others may end up with truly predictable outcomes. I'll be zeroing in on those players and teams who seem the most like known quantities at this early stage in the season for my favorite market positions this Sunday.

I couldn't think of a better week to introduce NFL bettors to one of the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites - Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig for this weekend's games.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs.  Now here are some of my favorite NFL bets and player props for Week 1 on Novig!

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook. The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users - there's no commission kept by the site.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!

Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.

Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.

Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus

Use code BALLER, and you'll receive a $25 purchase match (50% discount up to $25) on your first Novig purchase.

You also get a free month of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS, and more!

You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

How Does Novig Work?

Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.

There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.

If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.

Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!

NFL Picks Against the Spread

All odds listed are from Novig and are listed in percentages, not traditional American odds.

Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (46%) 

The Raiders' 2026 resurgence nearly took a big hit when Ashton Jeanty had a preseason injury scare. Now they've revealed that Brock Bowers will miss the first few games with an injury of his own.

But we've seen Klint Kubiak do it before; his scheme is rock solid, and with the veteran leadership of Kirk Cousins under center, I think we'll still have an improved Las Vegas offense.

The real question here is "just HOW bad will the Dolphins be this season?"

Miami has a dearth of talent on offense, with DeVon Achane being the only proven playmaker. Even Malik Willis, who's obviously an exciting player in his own right, has a lot to prove here, and his lack of weapons in the pass game is concerning.

We have to take the dreaded extra half point here at -3.5, but we are being rewarded with some nice odds in return. The Raiders are at home, and I like their matchup here on both sides of the ball against a team I predict will be one of the two or three worst in the league.

Compare at -102 on FanDuel Sportsbook, where a 100-dollar bet returns $198 in winnings. The same bet would yield 215 dollars on Novig.

Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) vs. Washington Commanders (51%)

I think we all expect the Commanders to be better in 2026. But there are still some major issues with this team, including an offensive line that already lost their best player when Laremy Tunsil went down. Jalen Daniels is going to have his hands full with a very good Eagles pass rush, and the lack of a running game from the Commanders and their 32nd-ranked offensive line is likely to force Washington into a lot of passing situations.

The Eagles have a very good defense that brings back the majority of their key players. And while the offense struggled last year, they're expected to be better in 2026 under Sean Mannion, who replaces Kevin Patullo as the offensive coordinator.

Let's not forget that this Eagles team is only one season removed from perhaps one of the most dominant Super Bowl performances in recent years. They are the more complete football team, and I think they should be full touchdown (or better) favorites at home in this one.

Compare at -105 on FanDuel Sportsbook, where a 100-dollar bet returns $195 in winnings. The same bet would yield 198 dollars on Novig.

NFL Rushing Prop Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and are listed in percentages, not traditional American odds.

Omarion Hampton OVER 65.5 rushing yards (52%)

It's a shame that Hampton missed such a big chunk of his rookie year, but it's allowed him to come into this season a little under the radar. He had to run behind one of the worst-graded offensive lines last season as the Chargers were missing both their starting tackles for the majority of the season and several other key pieces.

This season, San Diego already lost new starting center Tyler Biadasz to an injury, but luckily drafted rookie Jake Slaughter, who can slide in and hopefully not miss a beat.

Arizona was gashed on the ground by opposing running backs last season, and I expect new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel to get Hampton involved as much as possible in this one, as he's been talking all summer about establishing his ground game as the priority in this offense.

NFL Receiving Prop Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and are listed in percentages, not traditional American odds.

Michael Mayer OVER 39.5 receiving yards (53%)

Mayer is going to have to step up in a big way for the Raiders on Sunday to help fill the void left behind by their top offensive weapon, Brock Bowers, who's been ruled out for this game and likely a few more.

Raiders All-Pro tight end Brock Bowers underwent a meniscus trim Tuesday in Dallas with Dr. Daniel Cooper and now is expected to miss “a game or two”, league sources told @rapsheet and me. Bowers got banged up “a little in camp” and the injury was diagnosed last week and surgery… pic.twitter.com/42ANGHbYSC

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 9, 2026

In the four games that Bowers missed last season, Mayer averaged 49 yards receiving and hit the over on this prop 75% of the time. We should see him on the field a ton in this game, as the Raiders run a lot of 12 and 13 personnel this preseason, and I'd expect Kirk Cousins to hone in on him to keep the chains moving.

Isaiah Likely OVER 3.5 receptions (47%)

Likely's reception prop feels far too low for what his target share COULD be in New York this week (and this year). The Giants don't have many other reliable options after Malik Nabers, and Likely is expected to serve as the second option for Jaxson Dart.

John Harbaugh loved to feature his top tight end in Baltimore and help facilitate the signing of Likely to a big deal. I really think he'll be highly involved this week.

Jaylen Warren OVER 2.5 receptions (53%)

I have been pounding the drum for Warren this preseason, and he was officially announced as the starter over Dowdle earlier this week. I don't think it matters who starts, and both backs will probably see a fairly equal amount of carries in the run game.

But I am expecting Warren to get more targets as a pass-catcher, a role that he's been very effective in during his career. I think he inherits the very valuable third-down role that Kenny Gainwell had last season, when he had nearly 90 targets last season.

Atlanta allowed RB1s to catch 3+ passes 57% of the time last season.

David Montgomery OVER 10.5 receiving yards (53%)

There's some juice here, but as you can tell, I love receiving props for running backs. They are often too low for the backs' expected role and can go over a lot easier than a receiver with a big 6.5 or 7.5 receptions prop.

#Texans RB1 David Montgomery touchdown catch out of the backfield from C.J. Stroud @KPRC2 pic.twitter.com/jBV91ncANu

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) July 30, 2026

While Woody Marks is sure to work in for some passing downs, I expect Monty to get a few targets of his own as the early-down guy. He's a very capable pass catcher and could go over this number with one solid catch and run.

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