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Week 8 NCAA college football betting picks and matchups previews. Dominick's top CFB games to watch in Week 8, including betting lines and recommendations.
Can Penn State beat Ohio State for the first time since 2016? Can USC get over its terrible loss to Notre Dame and rebound? Can Alabama avenge its 2022 loss to Tennessee and remain in the hunt for the playoffs? These are the three biggest questions in Week 8 of the college football season and we will try to answer them here.
Normally we try to select five games to preview. This week, there are three key games so we will just focus on them. Alabama looks to continue its march to Atlanta while Penn State looks to finally vanquish division-rival Ohio State. These will be two key games in terms of the CFP.
While USC and Utah are both on the brink of playoff elimination, the Trojans will look to win against a Utah team that is remarkably similar to the Notre Dame squad that just dismantled USC by 28. How will head coach Lincoln Riley respond? Let us now look at the top three games of Week 8 and find out what to expect across the country.
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(6)Penn State vs. (3)Ohio State
Betting Lines: Ohio State -4.5(-115) O/u 46.5 O(-105)U(-115)
James Franklin was just 1-8 against Ohio State during his tenure at Penn State. If there is one game the Nittany Lions want to win each season, this is the one. This is the main reason that Penn State fans grow frustrated with Franklin despite him bringing the school some of its best results in many years. Saturday will be another opportunity for Franklin to get the monkey off his back and win a game against the Buckeyes. This time on the road at The Horseshoe, which is never easy.
Although everyone thinks of Ohio State as an offensive machine, it has been the defense that has been paving the way in 2023. Much the same way Penn State has used its defense to mash opponents. Ohio State’s defense ranks seventh in the nation, allowing just 263.5 yards/game. It is also second in the nation allowing just 4.0 yards/play. The Buckeyes defense also ranks third in the nation allowing only 9.7 points/game during the 2023 season. With its offense averaging 36.0 points (21st) this is finally a complete Ohio State team under head coach Ryan Day.
Penn State, whose defense is also playing great, is fielding an offense averaging 44.3 points/game, which is good for sixth in the nation. But this will be a defensive matchup in Columbus. Ohio State allowing those 263.5 yards is looking up at very few teams. One of the teams it is looking up to is Penn State which ranks No. 1 in the country, allowing only 198 yards/per game. It is also the only team ranked above Ohio State in yards/play allowing only 3.4 to lead the nation. The Nittany Lions have allowed 8.0 points/game which ranks them second in the nation and they also lead the country in pressure rate against opposing QB while only passing four rushers. This means they can get home without blitzing. Something important against a Buckeyes offense with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Treyvon Henderson.
This will be the biggest game of the season for both teams until both take on Michigan later in the season. While this is the ultimate rival for Penn State, it is only the second-tier rivalry for Ohio State who will want to beat Michigan even worse. This does not mean the Buckeyes will take Penn State lightly, but it does mean the gravity for Penn State is a bit higher than it is for Ohio State.
Betting: Penn State +4.5(-105) UNDER 46.5(-115)
(15)Tennessee vs. (8)Alabama
Betting Lines: Alabama -8.5(-105) O/U 48.5 O(-115)U(-105)
While Alabama has been winning its games since a loss to Texas, it has looked extremely vulnerable. Saturday, after jumping out to a 24-6 lead over Arkansas, Alabama was forced to hold on for a 24-21 win. This came as Alabama came into the matchup favored by 19 points and only one week after the Tide were forced to hold on against Texas A&M for a six-point win. That victory over A&M was aided immensely by the coaching of Jimbo Fisher.
Tennessee comes in after defeating the same Aggies team 20-14 on Saturday. This was the first victory for Josh Heupel in which he failed to score at least 30 points during his time with the Volunteers. This shows the improvement of the Tennessee defense in 2023 and this is why the total is as low as it is at 48.5. Both teams will be able to stop the offense of the other team.
QB Jordan Milroe and the Alabama offense have only averaged 219.7 passing yards/game (82nd) on the season. While normally the run game would pick up the slack, the Crimson Tide rank just 73rd in rush yards at 148.4. Tennessee is good at stopping the run as it has allowed only 105.2 yards/per contest. This makes Tennessee a top-20 run defense. It also comes in with a top 30 pass defense allowing 197.8 yards passing.
For Alabama, the defense is just as good. The Rush defense allowing 105.3 yards/game, sixth in the nation, will have a tough time against a Volunteer rushing attack, which ranks sixth and runs for 231.3 yards per game. The passing offense, something everyone expects from a Josh Heupel team, ranks 88th nationally and is averaging 212.5 yards/game with QB Joe Milton at the helm.
The Volunteers have seen the limitations of Milton. This has forced them to become a run-first team. With both teams looking to run the ball to gain control, the number of drives will be limited, and scoring will be at a premium. This means taking the favorite or the over is risky.
Betting: Tennessee +8.5(-115) UNDER 48.5(-105)
(14)Utah vs. (16)USC
Betting Lines: USC -6.5(-114) O/U 55.5 O(-115)U(-105)
Few teams have the same physical defense Notre Dame employed against USC on Saturday. One of the teams that does? Utah. The next opponent for USC as it looks to regroup from the lopsided defeat in South Bend in Week 7.
After losing to Utah 43-42 during the 2022 regular season, USC lost again in the Pac-12 championship game by a score of 47-24. The lopsided nature of this game was due in part to quarterback Caleb Williams suffering an injury early in the contest. But the USC defense, as it has for the entire tenure of Lincoln Riley, did not help matters.
Quarterback Cam Rising has not played this season for Utah. After tearing his ACL against Penn State in the Rose Bowl, Rising was expected back in Week 1 but he has yet to see the field. Despite this, Utah still comes into the game with just one loss. A 21-7 decision against Oregon State.
As both Utah and USC look to remain in the hunt for the Pac-12 championship game, this will be a key game for both. Utah averages only 322.2 yards/game and ranks 117th in the nation. USC ranks 94th allowing 397.0. But the determining factor will be on the score board where USC has allowed 30.0 points while Utah has only been able to score 21.7 on average.
Utah will be able to limit the USC offense. But it will be unable to stop Williams and the Trojans' offense for a second game in a row. With Rising set to miss another game, the offense of Utah will not be able to make enough plays to win. USC will use what tiny home-field advantage The Coliseum offers to pull away and get back on the winning track.
Betting: USC -6.5(-114) UNDER 55.5(-105)
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