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Another week, another short track and don't expect the top names to change.
Last week at Martinsville Speedway, Denny Hamlin led 274 circuits, the most laps he's led in a race in nearly 12 years. Meanwhile, Martin Truex Jr. finished the race strong, scoring his second victory of the young 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season.
Surely these two will be factors for the win this weekend, and two of the pre-race favorites. But let's find out who else you should keep an eye on ahead of Sunday's Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway (it's going to look similar to last week).
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Brad Keselowski
(DraftKings $12,000 | FanDuel $13,500 | DK SportsBook +750)
Do we remember what Brad Keselowksi did on tracks similar to Richmond stature in 2020? He dominated. Specifically in the Commonwealth and at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in August.
Being honest, it's quite surprising to see Keselowski with the fourth best odds to win Sunday's race at Richmond, behind Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson. Sure, all three of those drivers have wins at the .75-mile racetrack, but Team Penske has dominated these types of tracks over the past year and a half. Just last fall, Keselowski led a race-high 192 laps.
Here's another reason to feature the No. 2 car in your lineup: Keselowski starts 20th. Given the fact the Michigan native has just one finish outside the top 20 at Richmond since 2011 means he's likely going to score you points. Then again, he's had issues at two of his best racetracks so far this season, in Martinsville and Atlanta Motor Speedway.
Martin Truex Jr.
(DraftKings $11,400 | FanDuel $14,000 | DK SportsBook +400)
It took 81 races for Truex to score his first short track victory at the Cup level, but since then he's been on a tear, winning five of the past 11. That streak started two Aprils ago at Richmond.
In that cool, April night, Truex led 186 circuits. But over a five-race stretch, that was average for the 2017 champion at Richmond. Think back to the year Truex won the championship, he led 198 laps in the regular season finale. He followed that up with performances of 121 and 163 laps led in 2018 at Richmond. 2019, you ask? The aforementioned 186 and 109 laps in the fall. Over the last eight races at the track, he's paced the field for 970 laps.
So yes, there's a reason why Truex costs a lot of money this weekend. But it'll likely pay off for you.
Denny Hamlin
(DraftKings $11,000 | FanDuel $13,000 | DK SportsBook +600)
Man, Hamlin has done everything but win in 2021, having led 487 laps through the first eight races. Of those eight races, the No. 11 Toyota has seven top-five finishes, with an average result of 4.5. Solid.
Through Hamlin's 16-year Cup career, more times than not he runs towards the front at his home racetrack. Remember in 2018 when he led 381 laps, only to have a flat tire late and finish 24th? That was rough. But in the last 10 races at the track, the No. 11 has eight finishes of sixth or better.
In over 11,000 laps of competition at Richmond, Hamlin has failed to complete 12 of them. The No. 11 will start second on Sunday, meaning there's a good change he leads laps. He'll just have to pass True to do so.
Kyle Busch
(DraftKings $10,000 | FanDuel $12,000 | DK SportsBook +900)
Speaking of hit or miss, that's the way Kyle Busch's last two years have been. But there's reason for optimism in the No. 18 camp, like his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Truex and Hamlin, Busch is pretty sporty at Richmond.
In his last starts at the short track, Busch has nine top-10 finishes, sweeping both races in 2018. In 2019, he led 303 of 800 laps at the track, going on to finish runner-up and eighth, respectively.
Of the four Joe Gibbs Racing cars this year, Busch has shown the least amount of speed, while also showing flashes of that two-time champion. Odds are, the No. 18 team has a strong outing on Sunday. But in comparison to his teammates, I'd have the No. 18 car third on the list.
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Austin Cindric
(DraftKings $8,600 | FanDuel $6,000 | DK SportsBook +20000)
Austin Cindric will make his third Cup start of the season at Richmond, adding to the list of tough races on the circuit. Throw in the Daytona 500 which is a total crapshoot, and Atlanta where drivers are arms up for the duration of the event, Richmond is a challenging short track, because as Chase Elliott said earlier this week, pretty much all drivers run the same line.
So this weekend is about gaining knowledge and track time for Cindric. The No. 33 Ford will be starting from the rear, meaning there's just one way to go: Up. And I would expect a performance around 20th.
On paper, that doesn't look too good, but DraftKings players it's a net positive of roughly 18 positions. It also wouldn't surprise me if he ran better, having a pair of runner-up finishes in six Xfinity Series starts at the venue.
Aric Almirola
(DraftKings $8,200 | FanDuel $7,800 | DK SportsBook +8000)
Seems like I write this every week, but Almirola's luck HAS to turn around at some point. And like Martinsville last week, Richmond has been one of his better tracks on the schedule.
Yes, Almirola's style lends to short, flat racetracks. And while he's had breakout runs at Richmond (finished fourth with Richard Petty Motorsports in 2015; scoring a top five in 2018), his stats are roller coaster like at the track.
With another disappointing run last weekend at Martinsville, plus where the No. 10 car sits in points, Almirola will roll off from 22nd on Sunday. That streak of not finishing has to end at some point, right?
Austin Dillon
(DraftKings $7,500 | FanDuel $8,500 | DK SportsBook +4000)
Uh, this is a steal here.
Whether you're playing on DraftKings, FanDuel or just want to put a little money down for a longshot pick, Dillon is a great choice this weekend. Outside of Keselowski last fall, it was the No. 3 car that was second in class, despite missing pit road late, finishing fourth, leading a career high 55 laps.
Of the last four races at Richmond, Dillon has three top-six finishes. Surely it can be scary to get on the No. 3 bandwagon, because he was among the pre-race favorites for the Bristol Dirt Race and was a non-factor all race long. My expectations for Dillon are high this weekend.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
(DraftKings $6,200| FanDuel $6,300 | DK SportsBook +10000)
Quietly, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is having his most consistent season to date, despite being just eight races in.
When it comes to typical long green flag runs at Richmond, Stenhouse is one that will take advantage of pit strategy, splitting the final two stages into thirds. If that's the strategy he and crew chief Brian Pattie play this weekend is unknown.
Based of his sole race at Richmond with JTG Daugherty racing, expect the No. 47 to run between 15th and 20th. Last year he finished 18th, fourth best of non-playoff cars. Because Stenhouse starts 14th it might be an unattractive pick, but if you need someone to fill out your lineup, he could be your guy.
Look for Preece to have a solid top-15 run, which is a net positive from his 22nd-place starting position.
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