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The second round -- otherwise known as the Round of 12 -- of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs kicks off this weekend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. And arguably, this is the most important race of the postseason, until the championship race.
Why, you ask? You see, this round is filled with two wild cards tracks: Talladega and the Charlotte ROVAL, where anything can and will happen. Because of that, teams put an added emphasis on winning at Las Vegas, assuring they'll be locked into the Round of 8, no matter what happens at the next two venues.
Last year, Vegas native Kurt Busch upset the field at his home track, stealing one of the eight spots in the penultimate round. The following week at Talladega, the No. 1 car got airborne as a result of the "Big One."
Happy New Year! Save 30% on any Premium Pass using discount code NEW. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESSSo yes, Sunday's race in Sin City is important. And if we go by the spring race, it's not surprise that Hendrick Motorsports will be the frontrunners. But who else should you keep an eye on?
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Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles, rankings and and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups. Just a reminder, qualifying isn't until Sunday morning at 9:00 a.m. ET, just four hours before the scheduled green flag.
Kyle Larson
(DraftKings $11,000 | FanDuel $14,500 | DK SportsBook +400)
Before we get down to selections, one thing I noticed for this weekend was, all driver prices are relatively high. That means you'll want to make wise picks, and picking drivers that start towards the rear could benefit you more than most weeks. But it also means you'll need to be strong at the top. And this year, you can't get any stronger than Kyle Larson.
Larson is coming off his sixth victory of the season by winning last week at Bristol. He did so by leading the most laps, though had to pull a slidejob on Kevin Harvick in the final handful of laps. Nonetheless, he earned his sixth win in 29 starts with Hendrick Motorsports, as opposed to his six previous wins with 219 starts at Chip Ganassi Racing. ...And people were worried he wouldn't pick up this package.
It all circles back to Vegas, where Larson earned his first triumph in the No. 5 Chevrolet six months ago. He will be strong this weekend, as he has been at the majority of 550 horsepower races in 2021. Look for a dominant performance on Sunday.
Denny Hamlin
(DraftKings $10,500 | FanDuel $13,000 | DK SportsBook +450)
If there's one driver who can give Larson a run for his money this weekend, it may just be Denny Hamlin. After all, the two drivers have the most top-10 finishes and best average finish on the year, and have duked it out for the last three months.
Quite simply, the fierce competition between the Nos. 5 and 11 teams has made each driver better. And in March, Hamlin led a total of 47 laps before fading to fourth at the checkered flag. But like Larson, the No. 11 has been strong on 550 tracks this season -- the best of the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers.
Hamlin also starts from sixth position, which is attractive should he finish better than where he began. But surprisingly, he's never won in Sin City, despite having consecutive top-five finishes at the track. Prior to that, he had just two top fives in 17 starts at Las Vegas, with the last coming in 2015. So, it's not one of his best tracks on the schedule...
Joey Logano
(DraftKings $9,900 | FanDuel $10,500 | DK SportsBook +1500)
...But it is one of Joey Logano's best tracks, especially recently. Since 2019, the No. 22 Ford has won two of the last five races at the track -- both spring races in 2019 and 2020. He's also led laps in 11 straight Vegas races, his longest current streak in the Cup Series.
Even when Logano is off at Vegas, it's still respectable. Earlier this year, the No. 22 car finished a lousy ninth, and ran in the back half of the top 10 for the majority of the race. But both of his Team Penske teammates -- Brad Keselowski and Ryan Blaney -- finished inside the top five.
Logano had a solid opening round of the playoffs, with an average finish of eighth. It's possible he recreates some of his Vegas magic and finds what Penske has been looking for the second half of the season on 550 tracks.
Martin Truex Jr.
(DraftKings $9,700 | FanDuel $12,000 | DK SportsBook +1100)
Speaking of someone who had a good opening round, not many did better than Martin Truex Jr. The No. 19 Toyota won at Richmond and had an average finish of fourth in the first three playoff races. And since winning at Vegas for the first time in 2017, he's been quite solid.
On that March afternoon, Truex led 150 of 267 laps en route to his first win of the 2017 season -- the year he ended up winning the championship. In seven races since then, he's earned four additional top-five results, including another victory in the playoff race at Vegas two years ago.
On Sunday, Truex will start from fourth position, which is a cause for concern. But if recent records indicate anything, he'll be running among the top five for much of the race and be in contention late. However, all four of Truex's wins in 2021 have been on 750 hp tracks.
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Alex Bowman
(DraftKings $8,300 | FanDuel $10,000| DK SportsBook +1600)
Alex Bowman hasn't been shy in the past regarding how much he enjoys racing at Las Vegas. However, in nine starts at the track, the Arizona native has led just a handful of laps, though rounded out the top five in this race last year.
Bowman narrowly advanced to the Round of 12 this season, but had a solid top-five run last weekend at Bristol. Forget about all the talk going into last Saturday's race that potentially two Hendrick cars would fail to advance -- all four did.
If Bowman is going to have a breakout run in this round, it's likely going to come at Las Vegas. He's won at an intermediate track before (now defunct to the schedule Chicagoland Speedway) and, as noted earlier, HMS cars are stellar on 550 tracks. The No. 48 Chevrolet starts seventh. If you want a driver that starts further back in the HMS camp, look at Chase Elliott to fill your lineup in 11th.
Matt DiBenedetto
(DraftKings $8,200 | FanDuel $8,000 | DK SportsBook +5000)
Now, we're getting to drivers in the back half of your lineup, but even those driver are costly this weekend. That means you've got to play the top half of your lineup smart, so your not picking up backmarkers to fill out those lineups.
But I like Matt DiBenedetto here. In 2020, the No. 21 Ford finished runner-up in both races, and probably should have won the fall race as he was in prime position on a rash of late-race restarts. Nonetheless, it was another one that slipped away.
While DiBenedetto is solid at Vegas, he hasn't been great on 550 tracks this season, despite earning three top 10s: Kansas, Atlanta and Michigan. As noted above, overall Team Penske (Wood Brothers Racing is an affiliate) has struggled at such tracks in 2021. But this is a good play of the No. 21 car, as it starts from 14th position.
Chris Buescher
(DraftKings $7,300 | FanDuel $7,000 | DK SportsBook +8000)
This year, I haven't been able to get a real gauge on where the No. 17 team ranks. Yes, Buescher has recently dropped to 20th in the championship standings, but in some races, he'll pop up from out of nowhere. Last weekend, however, was not one of those, as he placed 23rd. The week before that at Richmond, 24th.
One of the bright spots of Buescher's season, though, has been worn out, intermediate racetracks. While tire wear isn't a huge deal at Las Vegas, the track is worn out. Flashback to the first month of the season when the No. 17 car won a stage at Homestead-Miami.
For the price and where Buescher starts (25th), this is a safe choice. It's a quality car with an underrated and hungry driver that finished 14th at the track in March.
Erik Jones
(DraftKings $6,500 | FanDuel $6,000 | DK SportsBook +20000)
Erik Jones had his first breakout run with Richard Petty Motorsports at Las Vegas in the spring. The No. 43 Chevrolet ran around the top 10 all race long, and ultimately took the checkered flag in 10th -- his first top 10 with the team.
Since then, Jones has shown to be competitive on a variety of different tracks, even if the results don't back that. The No. 43 team also enters the race with a strong eighth-place finish just last weekend at Bristol.
Look, for the value this deep in the field, Jones, I think has the most potential for this weekend. But he does start 16th, one of his better starting positions of the season, which is a concern. So if you don't go with the No. 43 car, maybe someone like Michael McDowell (starts 23rd) or Corey LaJoie (27th) suits your lineup better, as they have a higher potential upswing in where they finish.
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