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Justin's NASCAR Cup Series DFS picks for the Shriners Children's 500 at Phoenix Raceway. Check out his sleepers and top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel for the race.
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Phoenix this weekend for what should be a fascinating race, as it's the first time we'll be seeing the sanctioning body's new short track package. Will it produce some more exciting racing? Or will it be a dud?
That level of uncertainty also makes it tough to predict what to what in DFS. My advice? Make sure you have at least one driver who starts at the front, in case passing is an issue. Preferably, you might want two of those guys.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for the Shriners Children's 500 on DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on Sunday, March 10 at 3:45 p.m. EST. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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Kyle Larson
Starts 17th - DK: $11,500, FD: $14,000
A poor qualifying effort for Kyle Larson has him starting 17th, but that starting spot offers some enticing place differential upside for the No. 5 car.
Qualifying results from Phoenix.#kylelarson #yungmoney #nascar pic.twitter.com/PFsy0qWAnC
— Larson Land (@LarsonLand) March 9, 2024
This has been a really good track for Larson. While his November 2021 win was his only victory so far at the track, he's finished in the top 10 in nine of his last 10 starts at the track. Last year, Larson led 201 laps in this race before finishing in fourth place. He was third when the series returned in November.
Sure, the starting spot isn't great, but Larson has succeeded here once before while starting outside the top 10. In 2019, he drove from 31st to sixth. Other than that, it's hard to really know how he'll navigate traffic here since he's started seventh or better in eight straight races.
Denny Hamlin
Starts First - DK: $10,500, FD: $12,500
During qualifying, the broadcast was talking about how important the No. 1 pit stall is at Phoenix, as the driver in that stall has done really well at this track. In fact, it was called the most important pit stall in terms of the advantage it provides in all of NASCAR.
So, of course, we've got to make sure we have some exposure to polesitter Denny Hamlin, who chose that No. 1 stall. Hamlin is the favorite to win Sunday's race because of that. He's won here twice before, most recently winning the November 2019 race, leading 143 laps in the process. That's one of three times that Hamlin's led 100-plus laps in a Phoenix race.
Bubba Wallace
Starts 22nd - DK: $7,700, FD: $7,500
After opening the year with back-to-back top fives, Bubba Wallace qualified fifth at Las Vegas last week. However, tire issues doomed him to a 35th-place result. Still, Wallace has been really fast to start the season.
Bubba Wallace talking about his car for Sunday #NASCAR pic.twitter.com/Z21hQ93ZQd
— Joseph Eigo (@JosephEigo) March 9, 2024
Now he heads to Phoenix, where he finished 10th last November. This hasn't been his best track, but he was top 15 in both races in 2023 and has shown improvement here over the last few seasons. I don't expect to see Wallace win this race, but he can easily go +10 or better in place differential, which would be a good result at this salary.
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Josh Berry
Starts 36th - DK: $7,200, FD: $6,200
Josh Berry went for a spin during qualifying and will have to start Sunday's race from 36th, giving the rookie driver a good bit of place differential upside, assuming this Stewart-Haas car can find some speed.
Here is the crash for Josh Berry in #NASCAR Cup Series qualifying: pic.twitter.com/B00nYsxTfu
— Toby Christie (@Toby_Christie) March 9, 2024
Stewart-Haas Racing doesn't look like it's back to its peak performance, but the team does look to have made some strides this season. Last week at Las Vegas, for example, Noah Gragson had a sixth-place finish for the team and Chase Briscoe led a lap.
As far as Berry's track record here, he's run one Cup Series race at this track, finishing 10th last March while he was filling in for Chase Elliott in the No. 9 car. He's got a best finish of third in the Xfinity Series at Phoenix.
John Hunter Nemechek
Starts 19th - DK: $6,500, FD: $4,500
John Hunter Nemechek was fast all weekend, except when it mattered on Saturday during qualifying. He was fourth in final practice and fifth in the five-lap average, as well as third in the 10-lap average.
Phoenix is a solid track for Nemechek. He's never won here, but between Xfinity and Truck Series starts, he's led laps in six straight starts, including double-digit laps in five of those. The results aren't always there, but Nemechek knows how to get to the front at Phoenix. Sure, this Legacy Motor Club team is still a work in progress, but the speed that both the 42 and Erik Jones' 43 car showed Friday and Saturday has me optimistic for this race.
Austin Cindic
Starts 34th - DK: $6,200, FD: $5,200
Qualifying went pretty bad for Penske, as not a single one of their three cars — four, if we include the Wood Brothers No. 21 — qualified inside the top 15. That makes all these cars interesting from a place differential perspective.
Because there's a chance that the Penske cars are just super slow on Sunday, I prefer to fade Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano and grab the cheap play, Austin Cindric, instead.
Cindric has struggled at Phoenix in the Cup Series, with just one top-20 finish in four starts. However, he's proven in Xfinity that he knows how to run well here, winning twice. He also had a runner-up finish where he led 113 laps.
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