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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 7/28/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
There's a saying that "all good things must come to an end," but I am not sure that softens the blow any, as we had an awesome 11-1 run on NRFI and YRFI bets heading into last Friday, only to go 1-3 on the night.
But baseball is not the sport for those who expect to win every night. Variance is always going to rear its ugly head, and being consistent over the long season is the ultimate goal. Instead of sulking about a hot streak ending, I am diving headlong into this slate and ended up with six (YES, SIX!) NRFI bets for tonight's games!
On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI and YRFI bets today for MLB games on Monday, July 28, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are bets where you try to pick whether or not two MLB teams will combine for one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
We prefer to target NRFI because it tends to occur more frequently, which is why you usually see shorter odds than on YRFI. This strategy can change on a slate with worse pitching options, and we have seen offenses start to push back against the NRFI in the summer months, when hitting conditions are better.
The best part of NRFI wagers is how they settle so quickly. This is a fun sweat, as these six outs can be thrilling, especially if your pitcher works his way out of a jam. Remember to only go with a smaller percentage of your bankroll because this can be a volatile market, with even the best pitchers struggling in the first inning.
Best First Inning Bets Today (July 28, 2025)
- Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds: 7:10 pm
- Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers: 7:40 pm
- Atlanta Braves at Kansas City Royals: 7:40 pm
- Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals: 7:45 pm
- Washington Nationals at Houston Astros: 8:10 pm
- Seattle Mariners at Athletics: 10:05 pm
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds NRFI (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- CIN: Chase Burns
I have to try to keep these blurbs shorter today since we have six games to cover! This is one of several elite pitching matchups tonight as the Dodgers send Yamamoto to the mound to face the electric Reds' rookie, Chase Burns.
The caveat here is that the game is at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, and we have a slight breeze out to left field. That's why we are getting some nice odds; otherwise, I would expect to see this bet around -150 in a different venue.
Yamamoto is 16-4 on NRFIs this season, while Burns is 4-1 through his first five starts. Both offenses are 7-3 on NRFIs over their last 10 games, which is a pretty neutral mark compared to the rest of the league.
There's the home run risk here, especially with Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman against Burns, but the rookie also has dynamite strikeout stuff and could whiff the side as easily as he could get touched up.
I'm in on elite pitching matchups, even if there is some risk associated with the ballpark.
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers NRFI (-140 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- CHC: Matt Boyd
- MIL: Jacob Misiorowski
This matchup is arguably as good as the first one, as the rookie Misiorowski has looked dominant so far in his limited MLB experience, while Boyd is enjoying a massive resurgence in his career in Chicago this season.
Boyd is 15-5 on NRFIs this season and is enjoying a five-game NRFI streak right now. He's been fantastic in those five most recent starts, allowing just two earned runs total over 33 innings.
To help his cause, the Brew crew bats are still streaking (in a bad way) as far as NRFIs go, with a 10-0 NRFI record over their last 10 games.
The riskiest part of the matchup is the rookie known as "The Miz" against the Cubs' big boppers at the top of the lineup. But after seeing Miz dominate the Dodgers right before the break, I'm convinced he's probably matchup-proof when he has control of his elite stuff.
Atlanta Braves at Kansas City Royals NRFI (+100 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- ATL: Spencer Strider
- KCR: Rich Hill
Yes, that's right, we have Spencer Strider pitching and +100 odds on a NRFI! Strider is 10-3 on NRFIs and facing a Royals team that is 8-2 on NRFIs over their last 10 games. The wind is going to be blowing out at Kauffman Stadium, but this ballpark is one of the best pitchers' parks in the league, so it's not as big a deal as if it were in another venue.
The reason the odds have to be where they are has everything to do with 75-year-old Rich Hill making his second start for the Royals. Okay, Hill is just 45 years old, but it feels like he's been pitching since the 1950's and he will be bringing his fastball in around 86 mph.
But Hill was moderately effective in his debut start and has found a way to get guys out late in his career by throwing a big, slow, breaking ball that hitters aren't used to seeing.
The Braves can struggle against lefties, and all we need is one clean inning from Hill. I think I am in on him for this price, as I am pretty confident Strider can get us a goose egg in the bottom of the first.
Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals NRFI (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- MIA: Edward Cabrera
- STL: Andre Pallante
This pitching matchup isn't going to get your attention today, but I would like to point out that Cabrera has been pretty darn good lately, drawing interest from multiple teams as a trade target ahead of the deadline.
Cabrera has had just one "bad" start over the last few months and has seen his walk rate drop, meaning he's been more dependable and able to avoid more baserunners.
Pallante isn't a great pitcher, but he's having a decent season and is a classic groundball pitcher who usually manages to eat innings even without having strikeout stuff.
Pallante has been an NRFI stalwart this season, too, with a 16-4 record this season. The Marlins' bats have been pretty hot, but I am leaning into Pallante's track record on this one.
Washington Nationals at Houston Astros NRFI (-150 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- WAS: Brad Lord
- HOU: Framber Valdez
The Astros are the other team in baseball riding a 10-0 NRFI streak on offense, and they just happen to be facing a pitcher in Lord who has been solid in the first frame this season (Lord is 7-1 on NRFIs).
Brad Lord is not a great pitcher, but he's not as bad as I thought once I dug into his numbers, and he's been quite good at not allowing home runs (0.56 HR/9 this season).
Valdez is just 13-7 on NRFIs this season, but he gets a matchup with a cold Washington offense that is 8-2 on NRFIs over their last 10 innings and just slumping altogether.
Odds stink on this bet, but I am going to pair it with the Cubs-Brewers game for my DK NRFI boost parlay.
Seattle Mariners at Athletics NRFI (+115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- SEA: Luis Castillo
- ATH: JP Sears
Let's roll one more just for fun! Full disclosure - this is a very risky bet as the odds imply because it's being played in a tiny ballpark in Sacramento, and the wind is supposed to be blowing out around 12 to 14 mph tonight.
YIKES, that's going to result in some home runs. But can we avoid one in the first inning?
I have to take a shot on this NRFI because both pitchers have been tremendous on NRFIs this season, despite being somewhat mediocre overall. Both Sears and Castillo have identical 20-1 NRFI records!
That's nuts, and perhaps one of them will ruin their record today, but I am going to go for it anyway. Feel free to fade me if you hate the venue and weather, but I am going to back the strong results of both starters anyway.
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Best NRFI hit rate: Astros, Brewers (100%)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Orioles, Phillies (40%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: White Sox (5)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Orioles (.357)
- Best First Inning On-Base Percentage: Orioles (.440)
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