NFL Pick 'Em Pool Picks (Week 18) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pick'em Contests (2025)

January 3, 2026

The top NFL Pick'em pool picks for Week 18 of the 2025 NFL season. Kyle's weekly NFL Pick'em pool targets, avoids, and predictions to help win pick'em contests.

Welcome back to our NFL Pick'em Pool Picks for Week 18 of the 2025 NFL season. The final week of one of the most chaotic regular seasons in recent memory is here. With much of the playoff field already locked up, several teams are expected to rest starters, likely leading to some bad football. Most of the intrigue is concentrated on Saturday, when both the NFC South and the NFC's top seed will be decided.

A good way to capture the parity and chaos of the 2025 season is by looking at EPA/play on both sides of the ball. The Rams are the only team ranked top 10 in both offense (third) and defense (fifth). And they are somehow the six seed in the NFC. In the previous three seasons, we had multiple teams ranked in the top 10 for both categories, with four in 2024, four in 2023, and five in 2022. The playoffs feel as wide open as ever, with every team carrying a real flaw. That creates a high-variance playoff landscape and the possibility of a few surprise teams to make deep runs in January.

Every week of the 2025 NFL season, I'll lock in my picks for each game and rank them based on my confidence level in the selection. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. As always, we'll dive into some traditional and advanced stats as well as historical trends on each side to find matchup advantages. Let's get to the picks for Week 18.

Week 18 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks

The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The projected winners are italicized.

16 - Jacksonville vs. Tennessee

The Titans have looked far more competent over the last month. Two of their three wins on the season have come in that span while averaging 26.3 points per game, tied for seventh in the league. However, Jacksonville crushed Tennessee in their Week 13 matchup, holding it to a 26.3% offensive success rate, its second-worst mark of the season. The Jaguars still have an outside chance at the one seed and are expected to play their starters, so they should take care of business.

"Trev's definitely been playing at a high level. ... That's why so many of these quarterbacks need that time. Timing and circumstances matter."

Jaguars HC Liam Coen tells @PatMcAfeeShow about Trevor Lawrence's growth this season 📈 pic.twitter.com/YhUJKY58Dh

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) December 30, 2025

15 - Denver vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert (rest) will sit out this matchup, setting up Trey Lance to make his second consecutive start in Week 18 after his lone start last season with the Dallas Cowboys against the Washington Commanders. He wasn't bad in that game, completing 20-of-34 passes for 244 yards with six carries for 26 yards and two sacks taken. It'll be much harder this time around against a Broncos defense that leads the league with 64 sacks this season.

The Broncos will officially lock down home-field advantage in the AFC with a win, though they have been in plenty of dogfights against bad teams and quarterbacks this season, so it could be closer than expected.

14 - Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona

The Rams were punched in the mouth on Monday night in Atlanta, losing their second game against the worst division in football this season in the NFC South. They're now locked into the sixth seed in the conference and appear destined for a rematch of last season's Divisional Round matchup with the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. They will play their starters for their likely last home game of the season against the Arizona Cardinals, who are 0-8 since Week 10.

Sean McVay: “This is a humbling league and we got humbled tonight.”

Says he won’t rest starters. “We need to play,” citing need for better football. pic.twitter.com/hB7rAEYIFE

— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) December 30, 2025

13 - Houston vs. Indianapolis

The ride for Philip Rivers has unfortunately come to an end, with rookie Riley Leonard expected to make his first career start in Week 18. That's a tall task against what's been a historically great Houston Texans defense. Since DeMeco Ryans took over as head coach in 2023, Houston owns a 6-1 record against rookie quarterbacks, recording 35 total sacks and forcing 10 turnovers in those games.

12 - New England vs. Miami

Drake Maye had a flawless performance last week against the lowly Jets, posting an absurd 100% adjusted completion percentage and a 99.8 total QBR, the highest since the metric began in 2006. The Patriots still hold an outside chance at the first-round bye, needing a win and a Broncos loss to the Chargers. We'll see another Day 3 rookie quarterback start in this matchup, as Quinn Ewers draws his third straight start, coming off his first career win over the Buccaneers.

Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency numbers through Week 17 @Unexpected_Pts

- Has Drake Maye been very fortunate with a weaker schedule, etc. Yes, he has.
- Even considering those advantages, Maye has still been the most valuable quarterback in the NFL pic.twitter.com/AnVSHMopNl

— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) December 31, 2025

Semi-Confident Picks For Week 18 Pick 'Em Pools

11 -  Cincinnati vs. Cleveland

Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense have been rolling since his return on Thanksgiving night, except for weirdly getting shut out for the first time in his career in Week 15 against Baltimore. They've scored at least 32 points in every other game, but face a Cleveland team that has given him fits throughout his career. He averaged just 4.9 yards per attempt against it in Week 1 this season, and has 17 total touchdowns to nine turnovers while taking 30 sacks in nine career games against the Browns.

10 - Minnesota vs. Green Bay

We may see a quarterback matchup of Clayton Tune and Max Brosmer in this version of Packers versus Vikings. That epitomizes Week 18 football. Jordan Love (concussion) is practicing and will have a chance to play, but is still currently in concussion protocol, while the status of Malik Willis (shoulder) is in question as well.

Brosmer was atrocious on Christmas Day against the Lions, posting just three net passing yards when accounting for his seven sacks. The last team to win with that few passing yards was the David Carr-led Houston Texans with -5 net passing yards in Week 13 of the 2006 season, per Stathead.

9 - Buffalo vs. New York Jets

Buffalo is expected to play its starters after just barely coming up short last week against the Eagles. Josh Allen (foot) is managing a foot injury, but should be good to go in Week 18 to face a Jets defense on the verge of making history as the first team since turnovers became official in 1993 to go an entire season without an interception.

8 - Dallas at New York Giants

The Cowboys again find themselves in a matchup with the highest projected point total of the week (51.5), even against the lowly New York Giants. Dak Prescott continued his excellent season against Washington on Christmas Day, and is now in rare company, joining 2015 Drew Brees as the only other quarterback since 1960 to lead the NFL in passing yards while on the team with the NFL's worst scoring defense, per NFL Researcher on X. The Giants won (lost) the Tank Bowl last week against the Raiders and are now all but locked into the No. 2 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

7 - Philadelphia vs. Washington

This becomes a bit murkier with Philadelphia expected to rest its starters. Still, it will essentially be facing a team already playing plenty of backups, with journeyman Josh Johnson expected to make his second straight start. Tanner McKee will make his second consecutive start in a Week 18 game, and he looked the part last year against the Giants, throwing for 269 yards and two touchdowns in the 20-13 win.

NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 18

6 - Kansas City at Las Vegas

The Raiders will clinch the No. 1 overall pick with a loss, although Chris Oladokun and the Chiefs could have something to say about that. Oladokun has posted exactly a 3.35 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) in each of his two games. Geno Smith has five games below that mark this season, including a 2.65 ANY/A last week against the Giants' porous defense. It could be the last time we see Pete Carroll coaching on an NFL sideline, with reports coming out that he is likely to be one and done in Las Vegas.

Pete Carroll's last game as Raiders head coach? @DHx34: "I respect what he's done taking this job and the circumstances that came with it but, I think it's his time to go." pic.twitter.com/VCLnHAs9tk

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 31, 2025

5 - Atlanta vs. New Orleans

Atlanta pulled off the upset win over the Rams last week. It was its second win this season over an 11-win team on Monday Night Football, with the other coming back in Week 6 against the Bills. The Falcons defense has stymied some of the game's best quarterbacks and shut down rookie Tyler Shough in Week 12 before he caught fire over the last five weeks. The Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate posted a -0.19 EPA/play, second worst of the season, while taking five sacks, tied for the most in a game this season.

Also, it's worth mentioning that there is a scenario where the Falcons can decide the NFC South if Tampa Bay wins on Saturday. If both Atlanta and Tampa Bay win, it would create a three-way tie, with the Panthers holding the tiebreakers and clinching the division even in the event of a loss.

4 - Chicago vs. Detroit

These two teams look quite different from the last time they faced off in Week 2, when the Lions spanked Chicago 52-21. The Bears have really rounded into form while winning games that could have gone either way. Caleb Williams and the offense were terrific in last week's thrilling loss to the 49ers, while the defense still looks leaky. The Lions offense has stubbed its toe in both games versus the Vikings this season, but should still move the ball at ease against Chicago, setting us up for a classic shootout.

I’m very appreciative of Coach Johnson’s transparency and accountability. I asked him about the play calling at the end of the #Bears Field Goal drive, and he answered it straight forward like he always does.

A lot of Coaches would get offended, and either dismiss that question… pic.twitter.com/TH3SxcLLvW

— Herb Howard (@HerbHoward411) December 30, 2025

The Bears lock up the No. 2 seed with a win, potentially setting up a trilogy in their rivalry with the Packers in the first round of the playoffs after already delivering two classic finishes.

3 - Carolina at Tampa Bay

These teams face off for the second time in three weeks to decide the NFC South on Saturday afternoon. Both teams rank in the bottom 12 in DVOA (Tampa Bay 20th, Carolina 24th) and will have the privilege of hosting the loser of Saturday night's game between the 49ers and Seahawks.

This is what the hope of making the playoffs means to Panthers coach Dave Canales. pic.twitter.com/N6BOOXF0tn

— David Newton (@DNewtonespn) December 30, 2025

Carolina currently sits as a 2.5-point underdog, which is exactly where it wants to be with all eight of its wins coming as underdogs.

2 - Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore

The final game of the 2025 regular season will decide the AFC North on Sunday Night Football. Historically, the games between these two teams are always close and have been won by the underdog. It's unclear whether Lamar Jackson (back) will be ready to go for this game, but Tyler Huntley has been more than serviceable in his place, leading Baltimore to a critical win last week at Lambeau Field. Pittsburgh narrowly won its Week 14 meeting, which featured multiple controversial calls.

The Steelers still appear to be the better team at this stage of the season, despite last week's bad loss to the Browns. Their offense struggled without DK Metcalf, and his absence could ultimately be the defining factor of the game, with no other legitimate pass-catchers.

The winner of this game could have the luxury of facing the vaunted Houston Texans defense the following week in the Wild Card round. It could also be the final game of Aaron Rodgers' storied career if the Steelers lose.

1 - Seattle at San Francisco

What a matchup to decide the top seed in the NFC, eerily similar to last season's regular-season finale between the Vikings and Lions. The Seahawks and 49ers met in Week 1 this season, with the 49ers narrowly winning 17-13 in Seattle. Seattle has lost only two games since, but San Francisco has had its number in recent duels.

#NFL Net EPA/Play Rankings since Week 11

1. JAX
2. SF (OFF #2, DEF #15, ST #1)
3. NE
4. SEA
5. LAR pic.twitter.com/1ifLgyX0Tj

— SFdata9ers🏈📊 (@sfdata9ers) December 31, 2025

The 49ers are 7-1 against the Seahawks in their last eight matchups, although that one loss came in the 49ers' most recent home game against them in Week 11 last season. The 49ers have been elite on offense since Brock Purdy returned in Week 11, and are surprisingly short home underdogs (+1.5) for only the third time since 2022, losing all three of those games.

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