RADIO
I am looking forward to Wild Card Sunday more than Wild Card Saturday. I think some of it is that I got a gut-feel like I know what is going to happen a little more on Saturday than Sunday. But that just means I took an even deeper dive into Wild Card Sunday DFS Stacks to see if anything popped. Perhaps you are now reading this on Sunday morning after my successful Wild Card Saturday DFS Stack recommendations?
Either way, there will not be a deep dive of the Cleveland/Pittsburgh game. I am happy for Cleveland fans that their team is finally back in the playoffs. But I will not be stacking the Browns in a single line-up. Despite their end of season swoon, Pittsburgh still is a top ten defense in nearly every category. Given the fact that Cleveland got absolutely demolished 38-7 last time these two teams played in Pittsburgh, I expect the Steelers to be heavily owned.
Instead, I am going to look to roster some options that are far less owned.
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The "Last Dance?" Stack
New Orleans Saints
I am convinced that this will be Drew Brees last playoff run. Let's all enjoy it while he is still here. In the meantime, why not make a few greenbacks off it!
I kind of feel like there's an interesting fact that has kind of slipped under the radar this week: the books have New Orleans as the third-highest implied total this weekend. The Bears have a strong defense, but one that has fared better against the run vs. the pass. Of the 12 teams playing this weekend, the Bears are allowing more quarterback fantasy points this season than half of them. Sean Peyton might try to establish the run, but I suspect sooner or later we'll see Brees take to the air.
But let's be honest, Brees is not the Brees of old. Peyton was often happy to allow Brees to fling it 40 or 45 times a game. However, since Brees has returned from injury, he has attempted 34, 26 and 32 passes for an average of 249 yards a game. And one of those games includes a game with zero TDs.
However, he sandwiched that game with a couple of three-score outings, both of which he surpassed 20 DraftKings points. Furthermore, we know Brees has been a monster at home throughout his New Orleans tenure, including the last two years. During this stretch, he's averaged 23.9 DK points per game at home with nine games of 20 or more points.
One of the issues with stacking Brees though is whom do you add to the stack? Kamara is definitely a consideration, albeit an expensive one. Kamara and Brees are less negatively correlated than most other QB/RB combos due to Kamara's frequent receptions and ability to make a house call on anyone of them. If you are saving elsewhere, spend up for Kamara. But I wouldn't stress if you can't fit him in.
And one easy piece to stack with Brees is Jared Cook. A review of the TE options for Sunday reveals very few options. You could spend up for Andrews, but his ownership will be higher than I would like. All you are hoping for this week at TE is basically a TD. And only five TEs scored more TDs than the seven Cook did this season. Furthermore, while Chicago has a great run defense, against TEs however, they've been absolutely horrendous. Da Bears have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. Drew Brees targeted Jared Cook five times last week and he turned four of them into 43 yards and a touchdown. I expect Brees' recipe for success this week to include some "Cook"-ing.
Let Jared Cook! ?#SAINTS | ?: Fox | #NOvsCAR pic.twitter.com/yMGlsGYfm8
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) January 3, 2021
The most intriguing option however in a New Orleans stack will be Michael Thomas. He is expected to come off of the IR and play this week. Let's assume he's 100% healthy. If Thomas scores this week it will be his first one of the season. The lackluster totals in the stat can be partially blamed due to injury. Because when healthy Thomas has shown glimpses of what might have been. He did manage to have two separate instances of nine catches and over 100 receiving yards. I like where Thomas is priced on FanDuel more than DraftKings. If I had to guess, I foresee stacking Thomas on the former and not the latter. But both will be a late decision.
The other beauty of stacking the Saints is that we can runback with a number of different price-points. We can spend up for Allen Robinson or go with the more frugal option of Jimmy Graham. However, I still like Cole Kmet and I'm not buying the revenge narrative. Yet rather than spend up for Robinson, I'll likely go with the pleasantly affordable Darnell Mooney. He is averaging double-digit fantasy points and at his low price could be a steal on this slate.
The "Follow The Points" Stack
Tennessee Titans
When deciding what offenses to stack, one of the easiest things to do is look at the lines on the game. The Baltimore-Tennessee game has by far the highest over-under of the entire playoff weekend. And not only is it the highest over/under at 54 points, but if forced to choose, I would still grab the over. I will be staying away from that bet, but I would not advise staying away from this game. I will have plenty of pieces from this game.
And while it's very tempting to stack the Ravens, we know the Titans have already beaten the Ravens. And unlike a potential Pittsburgh/Baltimore match-up, are the two teams that different from when they last played? We know this Baltimore defense is overrated. After all, against QBs and WRs they have only allowed the ninth fewest amount of points....Hold on a second...(checks notes)...
The "Follow The Points" Stack
Tennessee Titans Baltimore Ravens
There we go, that's better! I still think this will be a high-scoring game, but I'd much rather have the Baltimore side of it. And that starts with Lamar Jackson whom we will get to in a moment. He will be highly owned, but most will stack him with Mark Andrews or Marquis Brown or both. But just because we are talking about GPP stacks, it doesn't mean we can't go with what will be the highest owned QB on the board. We can go with Lamar and pivot to some of his other targets.
Because you are going to want to own Jackson on this slate as no one has higher slate-breaking potential. Yes, Jackson has yet to win a playoff game. But this could be when Jackson finally breaks through in the postseason. And that's not just my purple blood talking. The books have Baltimore favored by 3.5 points over Tennessee, which also means on a neutral field the books would have the Ravens winning by a touchdown. If Baltimore is going to move on, it will likely require a huge game from Jackson. But this is a great match-up.
The Titans gave up the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks during the regular season. That is by far the most of any playoff team. Seattle is the next closest but the Seahawks' defense has been playing much better since acquiring pass rusher Carlos Dunlap in a trade with Cincinnati. Furthermore, recall that the Ravens hung with the Titans earlier this season, with Tennessee winning it in overtime on a Derrick Henry touchdown run. That also was the last game Baltimore has lost with Jackson. Since missing the Week 12 loss to Pittsburgh because of COVID-19 protocols, Jackson has been on a tear, throwing 11 touchdown passes and scoring four times on the ground over the last five games. Avoid Jackson at your own peril.
So who are we going to stack with Jackson if we don't include Brown or Andrews? I would like Willie Snead if he were healthy, but he has been limited in practice and might not even play on Sunday. Myles Boykin has very quietly been coming on and has three touchdowns in his last five games. In those five games, he has seen at least 35 snaps and at least 50% of all the snaps. That is a sharp contrast to the five games previous to that where he never saw more than 33 snaps or more than 40% of the snaps. Some actually believed that Boykin might overtake Brown this year as the Ravens top receiver. That obviously didn't happen, but Boykin has much better hands than Brown and I expect Jackson to look Boykin's way more than a couple of times this upcoming weekend. At Boykin's low price and low ownership, he could easily help you take down a GPP.
Or you could go with Dez Bryant who is only $4900 on FanDuel and the absolute minimum on DraftKings. Bryant is obviously seeing the field less than Boykin, but he's becoming a viable red-zone threat. making his snaps count. Despite playing less than 20 snaps in weeks 15 and 16, Bryant still caught a touchdown both weeks. If the Ravens get into the red-zone a few times, Bryant could easily snag another touchdown. Especially given this:
Lamar Jackson in the red zone in his career: 46 TD / 0 INT pic.twitter.com/UGd0bNc0sq
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 3, 2021
Stacking Lamar Jackson with two of his cheaper targets will give you plenty of salary left over for a runback. You can easily afford AJ Brown, the most expensive receiver on the 3-game slate. Or you can also include the most expensive player on the slate, Derrick Henry, who tore up the Ravens in their previous meeting. You can see why I like stacking the Ravens this Wildcard Sunday!
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