RADIO
I'm going to begin my Week 7 GPP DFS stacks with a discussion of a new element I am going to be adding moving forward. For the rest of the season, I will be adding to each recommendation a discussion of the "runback" options.
The concept of the runback is not new. However, I am seeing the use of that term far more this year than any other previous year. For those unfamiliar with the term, it is similar to a "game stack". If you're going to stack one team and expecting a lot of points, the opposing team is going to need to score a bunch as well. Therefore, you might as well include in your stack at least one other "runback" option. The difference is that a game stack often includes five or six players, usually two or three for each team. A "runback" is usually just one maybe two players from the opposing team and the focus in on the primary stack.
For example, the Chargers will be a popular cash-game stack this weekend. Expect tons of lineups with Justin Herbert and all his various targets on the Chargers. However, the "runback" option might be to add in Jacksonville WR like D.J. Chark or Keelan Cole for example. That is an example though for a cash game stack this week. Let's look at my week 7 GPP stacks and you'll see the runback options included.
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NFL Week 7 DFS Stacks: The "Low Cost" Stack
Washington Football Team
I featured Logan Thomas as one of my value plays this week so he's an obvious part of this build.
Per Football Outsiders, Ron Rivera's offense is playing at the situation neutral fourth-fastest pace. That should facilitate Thomas seeing a number of targets from Kyle Allen. Allen, meanwhile, looked solid last week in his second start this season. He completed nearly 74% of his passes for 280 yards and two touchdowns. Yes, it was against the Giants. But the Cowboys should provide even less resistance.
The Cowboys are giving up the fifth-highest average fantasy points per game to wide receivers. This makes Terry McClaurin an obvious play. McLaurin saw a dozen targets last week and should see a similar number this week. Already on pace to smash the 1K yard-mark-milestone and improve on last year's numbers, McLaurin will likely be highly owned but should put up quality numbers and is the showcase of this stack. He's a little off the pace to match last year's touchdown total, but expect him to right that ship this week.
In addition to Allen, McLaurin, and Thomas, I also might consider Antonio Gibson this week. Gibson has been targeted five times each of the last three weeks and has "take it to the house" potential every time he touches the ball:
I don’t care if you see Antonio Gibson as a WR or RB, this dude is an offensive weapon. Great athleticism, contact balance, and receiving ability.
I think he ends up being more RB that can be split out the slot in a pinch. Exciting player.
— Nick Farabaugh (@FarabaughFB) April 17, 2020
But if you are looking for the runback option, I'd go one of two ways. I'd either spend down and grab Dalton Schultz as Washington is allowing the fifth most TE fantasy points per game. Or spend up and grab Amari Cooper who saw ten targets under the stead of Andy Dalton and scored a touchdown as well.
NFL DFS Stacks: The "Contrarian" Stack
Jacksonville Jaguars
Be aware that this stack is exactly that--a contrarian stack. If I am playing a single entry game, I would absolutely avoid this stack. However, for those of you playing MME, you might want to grab a share of this stack. The books still have the Jaguars with an implied total of 20+ points. And with the Chargers having a stout run defense, expect the Jags to take to the air.
I was actually surprised to see the disparity from the Chargers run defense versus pass defense. You'll probably be surprised to learn as well that the Chargers are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. So you know what that means--Minshew Mania time!
Last week's game against Detroit was not good. However, previous to that Minshew has three games with at least two passing touchdowns and over 300 yards. And one of those was against Tennessee, who profiles defensively fairly similar to the Chargers. And I do like all three of Minshew's receivers in this game. Which two you choose will depend on your salary constraints and personal preference. D.J. Chark will cost you the most but comes with the highest floor. He saw 14 targets last week and should easily see double-digit targets again this week.
Laviska Shenault is the cheapest and has seen 27 targets over the last four weeks. However, with Chark returning last week to his perch atop the Jaguars WR corps, Shenault had one of his worst games. Keelan Cole meanwhile saw nine targets last week, his highest total yet this season. He also broke the century mark, something I expect him to do again this week.
If you're looking for a runback option, there are plenty. Both Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry are strong plays, but my preference is Mike Williams. A troublesome hamstring has limited Williams most of this season, but he exploded last week for his first game this season with triple-digit receiving yards. He also scored twice. Last week's game was certainly a welcome break in what has been a disappointing season for Williams, but I think it's the start of a new trend versus the aberration.
Of course, if Jacksonville is too contrarian for you, let me give you a GPP stack that you might like a little more even though the match-up is not great.
NFL DFS Stacks: The "Strong Team/Questionable Match-up" Stack
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are off to a perfect 5-0 record. However, they are facing a huge test this weekend as they visit the Tennessee Titans this week. The Titans are also 5-0 and becoming a very trendy pick to make it to the AFC championship game.
But let's not crown the Titans just yet. Their passing defense is far weaker than one might expect. I personally suspected them to be about middle of the road. They're not. They've given up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to TEs as well as QBs in addition to the third most to WRs.
So let's start with the WRs. Both Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster are priced very closely together on both sites. DraftKings has Claypool priced higher than Juju this week but I think some of that has to do with the full PPR scoring on DraftKings. I would include both of them in my stack this week. Juju has been a disappointment and has seen his yardage totals decline each and every week. Given that he had only six receiving yards last week, this is a trend his owners need to see end. The good news however is that he is still nearly playing 100% of the snaps in the slot, which should enable him to capitalize on some decent match-ups. This week that option is rookie cornerback Kristian Fulton. If forced to choose, however, I'd go with Claypool. He is averaging 14 yards per target and a score every 3.8 touches. With the Titans allowing 23.6 targets per game and 45.1 PPR points, expect Claypool to continue to provide support for his Rookie of the Year campaign.
Of course, you could always pivot to Eric Ebron too. At this point, we know that Ebron is not quite the model of consistency. In fact, it is his inconsistency that is so maddening. However, at his low price point this week, a touchdown catch should make him a profitable pick. The Titans meanwhile have given up scores already this year to such notable TEs as Darren Fells, Noah Fant, and Kyle Rudolph. Given that Ebron has a 13-TD season not too long ago, don't be surprised to see Ebron put six on the scoreboard this week.
He'll likely receive the pass from Ben Roethlisberger who continues to play well after playing just three games last year due to injury. He's not putting up big yardage totals, but is averaging more than two touchdown passes a game. He's also thrown just one INT all year. Meanwhile, Tennessee has allowed over 250 yards and two touchdowns to each of the quarterbacks they've faced the last four games.
This is still a relatively affordable stack, especially if you include Ebron in your stack. Therefore, the obvious runback choice is A.J. Brown. Pittsburgh is allowing the 12th most fantasy points to WRs. All Brown has done in the last two weeks in his return from injury is score three times.
With all the strong pieces, this makes for a potentially sneaky but very strong Week 7 GPP stack!
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