RADIO
My Week 7 GPP Value Plays are confined to games that I know will be played in the main slate this week. I think. While we all hope that the NFL season happens without any games missed due to COVID-19, it has already been marred by all kinds of scheduling changes due to the virus. So, as always, double-check the slate and your players before kick-off.
And speaking of scheduling, we are about half-way through the seasonal fantasy football season. Wrong or right, some of those owners will begin abandoning their non-contending seasonal teams and start looking to recoup some money on DFS. Therefore, we need to continue being diligent with our picks, and that includes finding key value.
Here are four Week 7 GPP value picks at each of the key positions that should help push you into the cashing zone on Sunday!
Week 7 Quarterback DFS GPP Value Play
Teddy Bridgewater at Saints (DraftKings $5800, Fan Duel $6800)
In the interest of full disclosure, you should know that I recently traded for a cheap Teddy Bridgewater in my primary keeper league where I just lost Dak Prescott. So perhaps I like Bridgewater more than I should. But that was not even close to a reckless move; and he's a gosh darn good play this week in DFS as well.
Bridgewater is coming off the worst game of his season so far, but the Chicago secondary is a far better secondary than the New Orleans secondary. While Chicago has given up the least amount of fantasy points to QBs this season, New Orleans is giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
The match-up is ideal. In addition to a weak secondary, we have an over/under set for this game of more than 50 points. And we all know that shoot-outs seem to occur at the Superdome frequently and I don't foresee this week being any different.
Plus, while Bridgewater might not be elite, he is a decent quarterback. He's completing over 70% of his passes and he's on pace for over 3500 passing yards this season. Given that there are only about half a dozen starting QBs priced lower than him this week, he makes for a great value play.
Week 7 Running Back DFS GPP Value Play
Zack Moss at Jets (DraftKings $4200, Fan Duel $5400)
This is not a pick for the risk-averse. If you are not looking for a "punt play" at RB, don't even consider this. Even if Moss does what I think he will do, he's not putting up 30 fantasy points. He's not going to have a huge game, however, I do think he will be sneak in as one of the top 35 RBs this week.
Moss only saw about 15 percent of the snaps last week, but he's outproducing Devin Singletary on a fantasy point-per-snap basis. He has not seen the volume of touches that Singletary has lately. However, recall that Moss missed three games due to a toe injury. Nonetheless, while Singletary has a touch percentage of 32 percent, Moss is barely behind him at 31.
And again, the Bills will be facing the Jets this week, who have been giving up just under 30 fantasy points to running backs. That's plenty of points to go around and I expect Moss to see double-digit PPR fantasy points this week.
Week 7 Wide Receiver DFS GPP Value Play
Brandon Aiyuk at Patriots (DraftKings $4100, FanDuel $5500)
Given some of the less successful attempts at hurdling a defender in the TNF last night, I again remind you that Aiyuk knows how to get it done:
*chef's kiss* pic.twitter.com/zFLrItCbcm
— CJ Fogler #BlackLivesMatter (@cjzero) October 5, 2020
Aiyuk is more than just an amazing hurdler. Aiyuk has three touchdowns in his last four games. The lone exception was the outlier game for the entire 49er offense two weeks ago against Miami. Locked in as San Francisco's WR2, expect a solid day from Aiyuk. Jimmy Garoppolo found his mojo again last week. With an injury-marred running game, expect Garoppolo to attempt close to 30 passes against the Patriots this week.
That's another detail I want to highlight. These ain't your much older brother's Patriots. The Patriots are allowing the fifth-most PPR points per target (2.05) to opposing WRs this season. I am also expecting Stephon Gilmore, still one of the better DBs in the league, to shadow Deebo Samuel. However, even if Gilmore shifts over to cover Aiyuk, Gilmore also has not been his best this season either. It's not horrible, but he has been victimized for 13-of-21 passing for 192 yards and two touchdowns so far.
Most people will stay away from Aiyuk this weekend. Don't be one of them.
Week 7 Tight End DFS GPP Value Play
Logan Thomas vs Cowboys (DraftKings $3500, FanDuel $5000)
Dalton Schultz looks like a great play this week, especially at his low price, and therefore I expect him to be quite the popular pick. If you're looking for someone a little less owned and just a touch cheaper, however, might I suggest the TE on the other side of this match-up, Logan Thomas?
Thomas scored last week against the Giants, but the Cowboys might be an even better match-up. The Cowboys have allowed the eighth highest catch rate to opposing tight ends. They are allowing an average of 14.33 fantasy points to opposing TEs this season. Given that Thomas has double-digit fantasy points on both sites last week, expect him to do it again this week. And given his low salary, he makes for a nifty week 7 GPP value play.
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