RADIO
Week 17 is always a tough week and that extends to the Week 17 GPP DFS stacks. The reason is simple: some of the studs, like Patrick Mahomes, will not be playing this week because the Chiefs have already clinched the top seed in the AFC. And while none of us are likely to be dumb enough to start Mahomes, what about Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce? Chad Henne will step in for Mahomes and he's so cheap that even if he tosses just one touchdown each to Hill and Kelce, it could be worth a potential stack.
The keyword there is could. If I'm playing a showdown for that game, I might include Henne. But with 14 other games on the slate, I will look elsewhere. But not just any game. For example, I'm not even considering the Las Vegas/Denver game as neither of those teams has very much to play for one way or another. What I will be looking for are teams that do have something to play for, which fortunately gives us at least ten teams. Furthermore, as I often do, I want to eliminate the stacks that I expect to be much higher owned and more advantageous for your non-GPP entries. I expect both sides of the Houston/Tennessee game to be heavily owned. I also expect that with the Colts in a must-win situation and facing the pitiful Jaguars, Rivers and his WRs will be a popular stack as well.
But one thing you will see I am doing this week is taking a chance on stacks that many might bypass because some of those starters might be exiting the games early. I am fully aware of that risk. But what if the starters don't get pulled early? What if their opponent forces them to stay in the game? Or perhaps the starter buries the opponent early with an onslaught of touchdowns and does enough in one half to surpass what a majority post in a whole game? Need more explanation? Just read my Week 17 GPP stack recommendations and your questions might be answered.
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The "Cue John Facenda" Stack
Green Bay Packers
Many might be surprised to learn that the amazing voice of John Facenda never once uttered "the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field....." for NFL Films, but that truth does nothing to tarnish the mystique. I also distinctly remember Michael Vick going into Lambeau Field during the playoffs and winning. And it still doesn't tarnish the legacy for me. Truth or myths aside, I can promise you that the Packers would like to secure the home-field advantage throughout the playoffs that comes with the number one seed. Possibly more important will be the precious bye that is limited to the top seeds in each conference this year. Simply put, I expect the Pack to do all they can to try to capture the top seed in the NFC this week.
We know they have the personnel to do it. And it starts with Aaron Rodgers, who is coming off his sixth game of the season passing for four touchdowns. Sitting at 44 touchdown passes to just five picks, Rodgers has made an extremely strong case for MVP. Even if he doesn't win, it is certainly an MVP-caliber season. And I wouldn't be surprised if Rodgers tries to get to 50 touchdowns on the season. It probably won't happen, but I expect him to be very low-owned with a tough matchup against the Bears. Given that Rodgers is actually cheaper this week than last, there's a bit of a buying opportunity this week on an MVP player.
Half a dozen touchdown passes is unlikely, but I wouldn't be surprised if Rodgers tries to toss three touchdowns to fellow stud Davante Adams to get him to twenty touchdowns. Twenty receiving touchdowns is an amazing feat, but it is even more impressive when we recall that Adams missed two games earlier this year. Yet, it's not just the touchdowns. Adams has a tremendous 44 catches over his last four games, enabling him to surpass the century mark for the first time in his career. Sitting currently at 1,328 receiving yards, I do expect Adams to also surpass his career-high 1,386 yards as well. Adams is one of the more expensive players on the slate, but for good reason. And that also should help diminish his ownership, giving him an even higher probability of being a "slate-breaker".
What I like about pairing Rodgers and Adams is that we have an obvious "runback" with Allen Robinson. Robinson doesn't have quite the numbers that Adams does, but he too has now hit the century mark for receptions for the first time. He has 1,213 receiving yards and with 188 receiving yards, will break his career-high. The Packers Defense has played extremely well as of late, but I remind you that the last time Robinson played the Pack, he burned them for a pair of scores.
The "Is There a Need to Circle The Wagons?" Stack
Buffalo Bills
This will be a low owned-stack, automatically making it very attractive to me. Let's start with the critical question: does Buffalo really need to win this game? It's a question of whether they will have the two or three seed, and Pittsburgh has already announced they are sitting Ben Roethlisberger. Conventional wisdom is that Pittsburgh is likely to be the three seed and Buffalo would get the number two seed even if they don't win. That same theory says that since the Bills can't get a bye, they have less motivation to go all out. And the theory continues that if form holds, they're going to be playing the Steelers in the second round regardless of what happens this weekend.
Sounds like a load of buffalo chips to me.
First off, if Buffalo has a chance at the two seed, they're going to do everything they can do to get it. We all know having two home games is better than one. And I agree that in this year of COVID-19, home-field advantage means less. But forcing teams to come to Buffalo in January is liking forcing teams to come to Green Bay in January. I don't see Buffalo wanting to give up that advantage. Plus, the governor has already announced that Buffalo will be allowed to have a limited number of fans in the stadium. Plus, what if the Steelers lose in the first round? Furthermore, if given the choice between playing the six seed and the seven seed without knowing who they are, wouldn't you choose the seven seed? Finally, if given the chance to help keep one of your division rivals out of the playoffs, don't you think you might be inclined to do so? I don't see the Bills laying down for Miami, which means I expect the Bills to bring their "A" game.
This won't be an easy matchup. The Dolphins are giving up the second-fewest passing touchdowns. However, it's been a bit of a "bend don't break" kind of pass defense as they are 19th in passing yards allowed. And before you give me the "Well, they will just run the ball then...." argument, you should know that the Miami defense is an even better 17th in rushing yards allowed. And remember, this is a Miami defense that just allowed Derek Carr to complete 21-of-34 passes for 336 yards. And I think we can all agree that this year, Josh Allen is a far better quarterback than Derek Carr.
Allen has been one of the hottest quarterbacks lately. He had one of the better Decembers, throwing just one interception and a dozen scores! And oh yeah, that's in addition to the three he ran in himself. If Buffalo goes up big early, Allen might be pulled. But Buffalo embarrassed New England early last week and Allen still managed to have four touchdowns and 320 yards. How can you possibly avoid him right now?
Obviously, Stefon Diggs has aided Allen in reaching those heights. Diggs has been even hotter than a Times Square Rolex lately. Diggs has excavated his way to 516 receiving yards in December alone!
The NFL leader in receptions and receiving yards.@stefondiggs | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/ADraiqaM52
— NFL (@NFL) December 29, 2020
Miami is middle-of-the-pack in PPR fantasy points allowed to WRs (15th most). Like Allen, I would fade Diggs at your own risk.
The third piece for this stack gets interesting. If John Brown can come off the COVID-19 list, I do like him here. If. And I do like some of the other Bills receivers, but I've been driving the Dawson Knox bandwagon lately and I'm not getting off now. Knox dropped an easy touchdown pass last week, but Allen continued to look his way and Knox finished with a respectable 51 yards, second on the team behind only the aforementioned and studly Diggs.
Are these two options too expensive for you? You know I'm not gonna ignore my frugal friends out there. How about this?
The "Are you kidding me?" Stack
New York Jets
There is more to the title of this stack than you might expect. We'll get to the more obvious one in a moment. But for now, I will say that I know a couple of Jets fans and that can lead to moments of cruelty. I am generally very nice to Jets fans because if nothing else, their team hasn't. However, when the "good news" broke earlier in the week, I couldn't resist. So I reached out to two of the Jets fans I know, who happen to be quite the shrewd negotiators and are as sharp as a whip. The amazing part is that both conversations were mirror images of the other and went something like this:
ME: "Did you hear about the Jets and Adam Gase?"
Them: "What?", with fear and absolute trepidation dripping from their voice. At this point, I paused to let their mind consider the possibilities. "Don't tell me they extended him?"
ME: "Yup...three years"
Them: "Are you KIDDING me?!?!?!?"
At that point, I couldn't be cruel anymore and told them the good news about Adam Gase being gone after this week.
ICYMI yesterday: @Craigcartonlive broke the news that the decision to fire Adam Gase has been made.https://t.co/UIsz6sH0Q9
— WFAN Sports Radio (@WFAN660) December 30, 2020
Both those two Jets fans separately acknowledged I got 'em good but added "Because nothing would surprise me with that team!"
And that's why we're going with them this week. Yes, they absolutely fit into the "are you kidding me?" category when I suggest the stack, but they also might surprise you. They surprised the Rams and Browns, putting both of those teams on the playoff bubble. But Sam Darnold is starting to look very competent and has not thrown a pick in his last three games. And Darnold has looked very sharp, but his WRs are not always the most dependable:
#JetsTwitter Sam Darnold is the guy. Nothing better he can do on this play but time and time again he gets let down by his teammates. Barrios drops a perfectly thrown ball for a TD and instead Jets drive ends in 3. Get #darnold some receivers! pic.twitter.com/MSn0l9iXwE
— JetsFanPage (@NewYorkJetsGuy) December 24, 2020
So obviously, we will not be stacking Braxton Berrios with Darnold. However, can we stop pretending that the New England secondary is any good this year? They got absolutely torched last week to the tune of nearly 350 passing yards. The reason they are not giving up more passing yards is they are getting steamrolled by the run as well--they gave up 566 rushing yards the last three weeks. But with RBs La'Mical Perine and Frank Gore both expected to be out this week, I think the Jets will have to pass the ball. And they do have some viable targets at WR.
Jamison Crowder hauled in seven of nine targets for 92 yards and a touchdown in Week 16. Crowder is now averaging over 60 yards per game and gives us a solid floor at a discount of more than $2500 less than the top options. A similar line this week will make us a profit and give us plenty of salary space to fit a couple of high-priced RBs into our lineup.
But along with Crowder's solid floor, we are also going to pair Darnold with the extremely affordable Breshad Perriman who provides plenty of upside. The two-touchdown, 100+ yard day he had back in Week 9 is the type of potential output that might be possible. This stack presents plenty of risk but gives you nearly $37K to spend on the rest of your roster on DK and nearly $42K to spend on FanDuel. Couple this stack with the right slate-breaking studs and you got yourself a GPP-winning Week 17 stack!
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