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Over the years, Kentucky Speedway has favored some drivers more than others. Last year, the first race at the 1.5-mile track with the current aerodynamic package, was a snoozer until the final restart, when the Busch brothers battled it out on a two-lap dash.
That's not surprising for Kentucky. Unfortunately, it's been criticized over the years for not being a track that's easy to pass at. Take Thursday's Xfinity Series race for example, Ross Chastain said post-race the track is "terrible."
But even with the lack of passing, there's still points on the line. Sunday's race is scheduled for 267 laps, meaning there's 66.75 points on the line for laps led and 133.5 for quick laps. Track position will be king, like the past three races of the season, so let's see who you should have in your lineup.
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My DFS Lineup - Quaker Stake 400
Kyle Busch ($10,100)
Career at Kentucky: 9 starts. 2 wins, 621 laps led
Average finish at Kentucky: 4.7
If you would have told me Busch -- the defending Cup Series champion -- wouldn't have a single playoff point through the opening 16 races of the 2020 season, I would have looked at you like you were crazy. Turns out, though, you'd be right.
The season has not gone well for Busch. Sure, the No. 18 team has nine top-10 finishes, but has not shown the sheer speed that Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin has, scoring four victories.
You can throw those 2020 lackluster numbers out the window when NASCAR enters the Bluegrass State. Busch has been the best driver ever at Kentucky Speedway: two victories, seven top fives (most in track history), eight top-10 finishes (most in track history) and 621 laps led (most in track history). Starting from the pole at a venue where track position is kind, surely, the No. 18 will lead some laps on Sunday.
Brad Keselowski ($9,000)
Career at Kentucky: 9 starts, 3 wins, 524 laps led
Average finish at Kentucky: 12.3
Quietly, Keselowski is having a really solid season. The No. 2 Ford has 11 top-10 finishes through the opening 16 races, scoring two victories. And at Kentucky, the Michigan native has been lights out.
As mentioned above, Busch holds many of the track's records, but Keselowski has the most wins with three. It has been feast or famine at the track, though, as the No. 2 car has finishes of 20th and 39th in two out of the three races at the track.
With Keselowski starting the 400-mile race from sixth at one of his best racetracks on the circuit, he's surely worth the price and probably undervalued.
William Byron ($8,600)
Career at Kentucky: 2 starts, 0 wins, 0 laps led
Average finish at Kentucky: 19.0
If you've been following these articles for the past month or so, you know I've chosen Byron quite a bit. Why? Because one of these races the No. 24 team is going to put it together and have a standout run.
With Byron, there's not much of a track record to work with at Kentucky, after all, Sunday will be just his third start at the track. In the scoring column, he finished 18th last season, can't change that. However, he was running on the front row late when the No. 24 jumped the restart, having to make a drive through penalty.
Track position is everything and Chad Knaus has proved since joining Byron last year he will strategically get the No. 24 to get to the front; take last weekend for instance, winning the opening stage at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. With a 21st-place starting position there's room to work with, so put Byron on your team.
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Erik Jones ($8,400)
Career at Kentucky: 3 starts, o wins, 1 lap led
Average finish at Kentucky: 5.3
Aside from Darlington Raceway, Kentucky has been the best circuit on the Cup schedule for Jones. Expect that to continue this weekend.
The 2020 season has had highs and lows for the No. 20 team, including last week, blowing a right front tire and taking a heavy lick to the outside wall. Sitting six points outside the cutline for the playoffs is not a good look, but it was around this time last year Jones got hot at some of his best tracks.
Since entering the Cup level in 2017, Jones has a worst finish of seventh at Kentucky. Had the Busch brothers raced each other just a tad harder last season, the No. 20 car was in the catbird seat to score the victory, finishing third. With a 16th-place starting position in JGR equipment, expect this driver to move up the scoring pylon.
Tyler Reddick ($8,200)
Career at Kentucky: 0 starts, 0 wins, 0 laps led
Average finish at Kentucky: N/A
As a rookie, Reddick has had to tackle these tracks for the first time this season. Unfortunately, for him, when thinking of Kentucky, it doesn't suit his driving style, rim-riding against the wall.
However, Reddick has proved this season he's been able to adapt. He's coming off an eighth-place finish last week at Indy, another tricky, flat track. Currently, the No. 8 team sits on the bubble in terms of making the playoffs, so Reddick's going to need to be balls to the wall over the final 10 races of the regular season.
Beginning the race in 24th, Reddick is an easy pick for the lineup this week. Expect him to surprise people with another solid run this season.
Michael McDowell ($5,700)
Career at Kentucky: 6 starts, 0 wins, 0 laps led
Average finish at Kentucky: 31.5
Remember when I said hold the phone on McDowell's average finish at Indy last weekend and he scored a career-best finish of seventh on a non-superspeedway? Listen to me again, put the No. 34 car on your lineup this weekend. Now.
McDowell is in the midst of his best season of the Cup level, and seemingly getting better as the season goes on. His team, Front Row Motorsports, is also having its best season since entering Cup, despite scoring two previous victories (2013 and 2016). Aside from an early incident in the second race at Pocono Raceway, the No. 34 team has 13 top-25 finishes in the last 14 races. Why is that important? McDowell also has a streak of three straight top 25s at Kentucky.
But 25th isn't good, right? It's decent for a small team like FRM, but with this year's numbers, it's a disappointment for the team. Expect McDowell to get a top 20 this weekend, as he has done in five of the past six races, including four top 15s. His 30th-place starting position gives optimism for additional points, too.
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