RADIO
It's down to one. The NASCAR Cup Series championship race is upon us, before the sport has 12 off weeks before returning at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum come early February for an exhibition race.
For whatever reason, when the championship races comes around, typically the four quickest cars are those that are battling for the championship. Expect the same on Sunday afternoon, as the four drivers competing for the title are the drivers that led the most laps in 2021.
Because it's championship weekend, this here column will focus on those four drivers, giving some background on why they should be in your lineup. And even if you start two of those drivers in your lineup, you can make the real money on the back half of your lineup. Choose wisely!
Holiday Special! Save 50% on any Premium Pass using discount code THANKS. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESSDFS Lineup Picks - DraftKings, FanDuel
Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles, rankings and and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups. Just a reminder, qualifying isn't until Sunday morning at 9:00 a.m. ET, just four hours before the scheduled green flag.
Kyle Larson
(DraftKings $11,500 | FanDuel $14,500 | DK SportsBook +190)
At this point I feel like a broken record, but Kyle Larson should probably be atop your lineup come Sunday afternoon. Once again, the No. 5 car will start from the pole, laying down the quickest lap in qualifying on Saturday. It's the 12th time he will start from the pole this year, sweeping the final four races.
Because the No. 5 Chevrolet will have clean air early, he'll likely control the first part of the race. Who knows, maybe it's another stomping, like we've seen so much this season. He's also pretty sporty at Phoenix, entering the race with five consecutive top-10 finishes.
Look, this feels like the year of Larson. He's won nearly every big race he's competed in 2021, whether it's been in NASCAR, World of Outlaws, late models or midget cars. He's my pick to win the title.
Denny Hamlin
(DraftKings $11,000 | FanDuel $13,500 | DK SportsBook +400)
For the fourth time since NASCAR went to the Championship 4, winner-take-all format (2014), Denny Hamlin has made it to the final race of the year still championship eligible. This year, he's hoping the outcome is different from the past three.
When Hamlin made it to the Championship 4 last year, he didn't think he a shot at the title. For the year, his No. 11 Toyota ranked 12th in overall speed on 750 horsepower tracks. This year, he's the fastest on such tracks, and was out front late last week at Martinsville Speedway before a mistake from Alex Bowman turned him.
Hamlin will start sixth in the race, third of the Championship 4 drivers. In 32 Cup starts at Phoenix, Hamlin has 15 top-five finishes and led 854 laps. It would only be fitting for the championship to come down to Larson and Hamlin after the years they've had.
Chase Elliott
(DraftKings $10,800 | FanDuel $14,000 | DK SportsBook +300)
According to DK Sportsbook, Chase Elliott is the second favorite for the championship at +300. That shouldn't be a surprise as the No. 9 car won the championship last year, in its first season being determined at Phoenix.
This year has been an interesting one for Elliott. He's won just two races, and both of them have come on road courses (COTA and Road America). His last oval win was this race last year, in which he started from the rear and still led 153 of 312 laps.
There's no doubt Elliott had the fastest car in this race last year. He starts second on Sunday and could lead laps early. Of course, though, if he were to finish below second, it will affect your lineup negatively. He has three podium finishes in 11 Phoenix starts.
Martin Truex Jr.
(DraftKings $10,400 | FanDuel $13,000 | DK SportsBook +500)
Martin Truex Jr., he too isn't too shabby at Phoenix. After all, he won the spring race at the track, leading 64 laps.
The reason to have Truex in your lineup is clear: He's been really good on 750 hp tracks this season. All four of his victories have come on 750 tracks, including three flat tracks in Phoenix, Martinsville and Richmond. Certainly, the No. 19 car will be a factor, as he's finished in the top two in points the last three times he's made the Championship 4.
Another thing to consider, Truex has the potential must upside of the four championship eligible drivers. The No. 19 Toyota starts 12th, lowest of the four drivers. In 31 starts at Phoenix, he's got 13 top-10 finishes. It's going to likely take another win -- like March -- to win his second championship.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS NASCAR subscription?
Like what you're reading? You can show your support for Dustin by using promo code RACING when purchasing a NASCAR Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium NASCAR articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer!
Tyler Reddick
(DraftKings $8,500 | FanDuel $8,000| DK SportsBook +6000)
Now that the four drivers running for the championship are taken care of, let's focus on drivers who will be good selections for the back half of your lineup. To me, Tyler Reddick is the obvious first choice.
Sure, Reddick has just three starts at Phoenix in the Cup Series, and the results, not good. Since taking over the No. 8 ride, the two-time Xfinity Series champion has a best finish of 19th in the desert, with an average result of 27th. The good bit of news is, in March of 2020, he drove from 29th to second before blowing a tire.
Of late, Reddick has been hot as the season has wound down. At both the Charlotte ROVAL and Texas, the No. 8 Chevrolet was in contention for the win late. Because he starts 20th on Sunday, there's optimism to use Reddick.
Bubba Wallace
(DraftKings $7,700 | FanDuel $7,000 | DK SportsBook +10000)
The 2021 season has been a growing year for Bubba Wallace and 23XI Racing. Prior to Daytona, expectations were sky high and a bit unrealistic. Still, Wallace did get to victory lane in his first year with the team.
On paper, the No. 23 Toyota has shown more consistency over the second half of the season, particularly on 750 tracks. That's been Joe Gibbs Racing's bright spot, something it put an added emphasis on going into the year.
In qualifying, Wallace laid down the 25th quickest lap, meaning there's a lot of room to move forward. In March, the No. 23 car finished 16th, which would give you a net positive this weekend. Entering the race, he's got three consecutive top 20s at the track, and rounded out the top 10 in this race three years ago.
Ryan Newman
(DraftKings $6,900 | FanDuel $5,000 | DK SportsBook +30000)
Ryan Newman has put together a workman like career, winning big races and a lot of poles. That full-time career could come to an end this weekend, as Brad Keselowski will replace him at Roush Fenway Racing next season.
The last two years haven't gone as planned for Newman, picking up just seven top-10 finishes in his last 68 starts. He had double that during the 2019 season alone, his first year with Roush. And during a 25-minute media session on Saturday, he was open about the last two years and the direction NASCAR is heading.
Should this be Newman's last race, he should be appreciated. His numbers haven't always been flashy, aside from his dominant sophomore season in 2003, winning eight times. He's also always been a good hand at Phoenix, winning at the track twice in the last 11 years. The No. 6 car starts 19th on Sunday, one of his better starting positions of the season. This is a sentimental pick.
Ryan Preece
(DraftKings $5,800 | FanDuel $4,500 | DK SportsBook +35000)
Of drivers that are set at a low price this weekend, Ryan Preece sticks out. The No. 37 Chevrolet will start 31st, meaning there's almost only one way to go: Forward.
Preece enters the weekend not knowing what his 2022 season holds. There's potential landing spots in the lower two NASCAR national touring divisions that are appealing. But his immediate focus is improving on his Phoenix statistics.
Since moving to the Cup Series full time in 2019, Phoenix hasn't been one of his better racetracks. However, he does have a best finish of 18th. It gets tricky when you get to the bottom of your lineup, but of the drivers that a low price, the No. 37 car has the most potential.
NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
More Fantasy NASCAR Analysis
The Keys to Weekly NASCAR Success
NASCAR is back, and it's time for you to win more with RotoBaller! Our NASCAR Premium Package for DFS and betting features several heavy hitters and proven winners.
Jordan McAbee anchors the team with his exclusive NASCAR DFS and betting picks, DFS projections and algorithm-predicted finishing order! Jordan had a 60+ unit betting profit in 2024 NASCAR, and a 25% average annual profit since 2018. He won the FSWA Racing Writer Of The Year award in 2023, and has been nominated for DFS Writer Of The Year in 2024.
Five-time NASCAR Racing Writer of the Year finalist and fantasy industry legend Scott "The King" Engel is also in the crew, bringing you his weekly strategies and lineup picks. Set your winning DFS lineups with our award-winning team. He has been nominated once again in 2024 for this award.
