Is Baker Mayfield Going To Be Starting QB for Carolina? Fantasy Football Impact

July 20, 2022

Having acquired QB Baker Mayfield from the Browns, many are wondering if he will be the Carolina Panthers' starter this season. Josh Constantinou breaks down what you can expect from Mayfield and the Panthers' quarterback position in 2022.

After an offseason full of turmoil for Baker Mayfield, he was finally traded from the Cleveland Browns to the Carolina Panthers.

This is a trade that has been rumored for several weeks and certainly makes sense for both teams. It also provides Mayfield with the fresh start he desperately wanted, in a new organization that wants him there.

The question that remains is where does this leave Mayfield for 2022? How does he fit into the team's depth chart and how will fit into the Panthers' offense as a whole?

Baker Mayfield Trade Details

First, let's break down the trade details, including both the compensation and financials.

The compensation is very minimal considering Mayfield was the No. 1 overall pick in 2018. The Panthers send their 2024 fifth-round pick that could become a fourth-round pick depending on his playing time in 2022.

As you can see, there was a lot of negotiating and compromise from all parties to make this deal possible. The Browns will absorb $10.5 million, free themselves of Mayfield and receive a pick, the Panthers receive an additional option at quarterback for only $5 million and a late-round pick, and Mayfield converts $3.5 million of his salary into incentives for the chance to re-establish himself as an NFL starter.

Will Mayfield Be The Panthers Starter?

Mayfield arrives in a new offense with a lot of work to do in a crowded depth chart.

Panthers 2022 Quarterback Depth Chart

1. Sam Darnold
2. Matt Corral
3. PJ Walker

*Baker Mayfield

While Corral is an interesting prospect from Ole Miss drafted 94th overall, he's unlikely to earn the starting role for Week 1. He could find himself at the helm towards the end of the season if the options ahead of him were to have a massive collapse, but for now, he's best viewed as the future, not the present.

Walker has only ever started in two games and will continue to operate as a depth option unless the team decides to proceed without him.

That leaves Darnold, who was drafted two spots behind Mayfield in the same 2018 draft, making it easier to compare their careers thus far.

Career Comparison

While neither quarterback is on track to end up in Canton, the numbers clearly side with Mayfield as the better passer in all statistical categories. He is more accurate, throws touchdowns at a higher rate, averages higher yardage totals per game, and although he has more total interceptions, actually has a lower interception rate than Darnold. Furthermore, he also has a better record as a starter and led his team to the playoffs two years ago.

Despite the questionable social media post after learning the Browns were interested in Deshaun Watson and the decline in his numbers last season while battling through a shoulder injury, Mayfield has shown moments of excitement and competency on the field that Darnold simply has not.

Both quarterbacks were unlucky to be drafted to a dysfunctional franchise with a below-average coaching staff but Mayfield has been more successful and reliable thus far.

What To Expect From Baker Mayfield In 2022

Having answered the question of who will start, the next question is what can be expected from Mayfield in 2022?

Durability

Until his shoulder injury last year, Mayfield played every possible game since taking over for Tyrod Taylor in his rookie season. He even toughed his way through the injury in Week 15 and 16 before finally being relegated to the bench. Thus, it's fair to assume he'll be available and healthy for the entire season, barring an unforeseen injury. This provides stability at a position the Panthers have experienced constant turnover in recent years.

Production

Mayfield had three straight seasons of over 3,500 yards and was on pace for a fourth until injury struck last year. He also threw for 22 or more touchdowns each of those first three seasons, so a reasonable projection would be 3,500+ yards and 25 touchdowns. Let's see how that stacks up compared to the production the Panthers have received over the previous three seasons.

Panthers Seasons Totals

As you can see, the passing yardage total would be about par with the previous three seasons, perhaps a little lower than 2019 and 2020; however, what really stands out here is the total passing touchdowns, which has been abysmal. Mayfield would project to add as many as 11 touchdowns that immediately become available for the receiving options in this offense. This is exciting news for star wide receiver DJ Moore, who has been unable to surpass four receiving touchdowns in a season, and further solidifies why Mayfield is the best choice to be their starter.

This will generate a higher overall fantasy output for this offense, increasing the ceiling all of the receiving options now have.

Leadership

The final aspect we'll cover here is the leadership and passion Mayfield brings to the Panthers. This is difficult to measure or quantify but is a crucial characteristic that not all players possess. Mayfield is tough, competes hard, and instills energy and excitement in his teammates, which figures to go a long way on a team that has struggled immensely the past few years.

Conclusion

The Panthers decided to make a low-risk trade to acquire what they believe will be their starting quarterback in 2022 and maybe even beyond. Mayfield will lead this team come Week 1 and provides them with a much-needed upgrade at the position.

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