RADIO
Phoenix Raceway: NASCAR teams better have a grasp on the track, given it hosts the championship race. But for you, I'm going to attempt to help you choose drivers that will help benefit your pockets this weekend.
Last year, Team Penske was very strong at Phoenix -- and strong at most racetracks that used the 750 horsepower, low downforce package. So, of course, we're going to highlight some of those drivers. What about Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing? They also ran well in the desert, so maybe they'll catch your eyes.
Regardless, the 2021 campaign is four races old and the unpredictably came to a screeching halt last weekend with a dominant Kyle Larson victory at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Expect more of the same from the big teams this weekend in Phoenix.
DFS Lineup Picks - DraftKings, FanDuel
Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles, rankings and and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups.
Kevin Harvick
(DraftKings $11,900 | FanDuel $14,000 | DK SportsBook +650 )
For years, Phoenix has been Harvick's personal playground, but the nine-time Phoenix winner hasn't seen victory lane at the track in three years.
There's no doubt about it, Phoenix is Harvick's best track on the schedule. Nine wins; 18 top-five and 25 top-10 finishes in 36 starts with 1,662 laps led. His statistics are straight up bonkers at the one-mile track. He's got 15 consecutive top-10 finishes at the venue, dating all the way back to 2012.
Because of a lackluster race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway last weekend, the No. 4 Ford will take the green flag from 18th, so it's not surprising at all to see Harvick be the most expensive driver this weekend. Odds are, he'll race to the front and put any of his doubters -- from how his season has began -- in the rear-view mirror.
Chase Elliott
(DraftKings $11,500 | FanDuel $13,500 | DK SportsBook +550)
Remember how last fall's race ended? Elliott was crowned the 2020 Cup Series champion in dominant fashion.
On that warm, November afternoon, Elliott began the race shotgun on the field and soared inside the top 15 by lap 15. His impressive drive continued by holding off Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski (more on them later), leading a race-high 153 laps.
This weekend, the No. 9 car is slated to begin the race in sixth, making his job a tad easier from November. With the way Hendrick Motorsports has began the 2021 season, there's no reason to believe Elliott won't be a factor come Sunday.
Joey Logano
(DraftKings $11,100 | FanDuel $12,000 | DK SportsBook +800)
Sneakily, Logano is quite good at Phoenix. Let's look at 2020 alone: Across two races, the No. 22 car led 185 laps, picked up a victory, earning an average finish of second. Not too shabby.
Arguably, Team Penske is currently the second best team in Cup, only behind HMS. But we also haven't been to a 750 hp track yet, where the Nos. 2 and 22 teams were strong last season.
Expect more of the same on Sunday. Wholeheartedly I believe we see both Logano and Keselowski run at the front.
Brad Keselowski
(DraftKings $10,400 | FanDuel $12,500 | DK SportsBook +650)
Speaking of.... Keselowski four races last season, three of which came at 750 tracks (Bristol Motor Speedway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway and Richmond Raceway). I don't see how anything changes from just a few short months ago.
Let's not forget, Keselowski was the only driver that passed Elliott on track last November, coming to the close of the second stage, picking up the victory. Unfortunately for the 2012 champion, his pit crew struggled throughout the day, losing him more than 10 spots on the afternoon.
So was that a fluke? I believe so. Team Penske has among the best crews in the garage, and will look to rebound Sunday. It just won't be for the title. Spoiler alert: The No. 2 car is my pick to win the race.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS NASCAR subscription?
Like what you're reading? You can show your support for Dustin by using promo code RACING when purchasing a NASCAR Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium NASCAR articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer!
Aric Almirola
(DraftKings $9,000 | FanDuel $9,000 | DK SportsBook +5000)
Something has to go right for Almirola at some point, right? I think this is a good weekend for his luck to turn in the right direction.
Why, you ask? Phoenix is one of Almirola's better tracks on the circuit, posting five top-10 finishes in the last seven races at the venue. He's consistently and consistent, and that's all the No. 10 team needs this weekend.
Starting 32nd, there's almost only one way to go: Up.
Alex Bowman
(DraftKings $8,700 | FanDuel $8,000 | DK SportsBook +3000)
In 2016, Bowman had one of his best drives in the Cup Series -- period -- at Phoenix, replacing Dale Earnhardt Jr. in the No. 88 car. Starting from the pole, he led a race-high 194 laps and ultimately finished sixth.
Since then, it's been hit or miss at his home racetrack. Across both races last season, Bowman earned an average finish of 15th while his teammate Elliott contended for the win both times (winning the aforementioned championship race). But with the No. 48 car starting mid-pack in 21st, it's a risk worth taking.
Look, a lot of eyes are on Bowman this year, and through four races he has a best outing of ninth. Should HMS be as strong as they've been the last two weeks, maybe it's Bowman's turn to cash in.
Erik Jones
(DraftKings $7,000 | FanDuel $5,700 | DK SportsBook +12500)
Who saw Jones' first top-10 finish with Richard Petty Motorsports coming at Las Vegas? Not me, even though I've had him on this list a few times this season.
Though he underperformed at JGR, Jones his a solid driver, with the stats to prove it at all NASCAR levels. And shorter tracks like Phoenix have been RPM's strong suit over the past handful of years. Jones isn't too bad in the desert, scoring a quarter of top 10s in nine starts.
There's a good chance Jones drops back from his 14th starting position. At the same time, the No. 43 car could very well backup its performance from Vegas and have another solid outing. The choice to have him in your lineup or not is yours.
Anthony Alfredo
(DraftKings $5,800| FanDuel $3,500 | DK SportsBook +50000)
OK, going out on a bit of a limb here, but Alfredo has had a respectable start to his Cup career with Front Row Motorsports. No, it's anything near the tear his teammate Michael McDowell has been on, but it shouldn't be.
This season is all about learning and adapting for Alfredo. He's very inexperienced and is getting much-needed seat time. But through four races, he's ahead of Almirola and Matt DiBenedetto in points; not too bad for an inexperienced rookie at FRM.
Quite honestly, Alfredo's DraftKings price is a bit high, though his FanDuel stock is a tad low. Either way, if you need someone to round out your lineup, the No. 38 car is a respectable pick.
NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
More Fantasy NASCAR Analysis
The Keys to Weekly NASCAR Success
NASCAR is back, and it's time for you to win more with RotoBaller! Our NASCAR Premium Package for DFS and betting features several heavy hitters and proven winners.
Jordan McAbee anchors the team with his exclusive NASCAR DFS and betting picks, DFS projections and algorithm-predicted finishing order! Jordan had a 60+ unit betting profit in 2024 NASCAR, and a 25% average annual profit since 2018. He won the FSWA Racing Writer Of The Year award in 2023, and has been nominated for DFS Writer Of The Year in 2024.
Five-time NASCAR Racing Writer of the Year finalist and fantasy industry legend Scott "The King" Engel is also in the crew, bringing you his weekly strategies and lineup picks. Set your winning DFS lineups with our award-winning team. He has been nominated once again in 2024 for this award.
