RADIO
This weekend the NASCAR circuit heads to Talladega Superspeedway for the second pack-style race of the season. And like every other year, just about anyone can win on a superspeedway.
Don't believe me? Michael McDowell and Front Row Motorsports (66-1 odds) won the Daytona 500, just two months ago. Over the years, other underdog drivers have won at Talladega such as David Ragan (also drove for Front Row Motorsports) and Lake Speed. But typically, the same guys run up front at Talladega and Daytona. Ultimately, it can come down to avoiding the melee that is the "Big One' and be towards the front at the end.
Because of that, this week, picking a DFS lineup for DraftKings, FanDuel or straight up picking a winner on DK SportsBook is nearly impossible. But here are some drivers to keep an eye on.
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DFS Lineup Picks - DraftKings, FanDuel
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Brad Keselowski
(DraftKings $10,500 | FanDuel $14,000 | DK SportsBook +1100)
When looking at the spreads -- and prices -- for this weekend's race, it's quite funny. On both DraftKings and FanDuel, there isn't much of a gap between the top handful of drivers or so, but the price range is drastically different between the two entities. Whereas you might be able to get away with three or four big-name drivers that historically have run well at Talladega on DraftKings, there's really no way you could slot in more than two on FanDuel and still have a respectable backend. But again, it's Talladega so anything can happen.
Brad Keselowski enters the weekend as the highest priced driver on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Some of that is because, though he starts 10th, it's lower than some oh closest competitors (more on that in a minute), meaning more points should he finish better than his starting position, or win.
Look, Keselowski is stout at Talladega. He leads all active drivers with five wins at the racetrack, including his memorable first career win in 2009. But even when he's had to win (ala 2014 in the postseason), the Michigan native has got it done.
On paper, it hasn't been pretty of late, having zero top-10 finishes in his last six trips. But the No. 2 car has led at least 10 laps in seven of the past 10 races in Alabama. Keselowski is due for a win.
Ryan Blaney
(DraftKings $10,100 | FanDuel $13,500 | DK SportsBook +1000)
While one Team Penske driver hasn't found success at Talladega since 2017, another Penske driver has done the exact opposite. Ryan Blaney is seemingly always in contention for the win at the 2.66-mile track.
In 13 starts at Talladega, Blaney has just four top-10 finishes, but two of those have been wins, both coming in the last three races. Those two triumphs came in spectacular fashion, winning by .007 seconds -- photo finish -- in both of them.
In the season opening Daytona 500, Blaney was out by lap 15 because of a monstrous crash that caught up nearly half the field. Look for the No. 12 car to show what its capable of once again on a superspeedway this weekend.
Denny Hamlin
(DraftKings $10,000 | FanDuel $12,500 | DK SportsBook +650)
There's only so many close times Denny Hamlin can finish inside the top five without winning a race, and when it comes to current drivers on superspeedway tracks, arguably, there's no one better.
Hamlin has won three of the last six Daytona 500s and is also the most recent winner at Talladega (last October). In that race, the gameplan of the No. 11 team was to stay out of trouble due to their points position. Turns out, he won the race.
For the third time this season Hamlin will start from the pole. That means, potentially, he could score some valuable points for you by leading laps, as he's led 346 laps at Talladega. He's also led the most laps in two consecutive races this season, only to score finishes of second and third, respectively.
Joey Logano
(DraftKings $9,800 | FanDuel $13,000 | DK SportsBook +900)
Told you, we were going big this weekend. But just like Keselowski, Blaney and Hamlin, Joey Logano is almost always a mainstay towards the front of the field at Daytona and Talladega.
Last fall, Logano led a race-high 45 laps at Talladega. Last August in the regular season finale at Daytona, the No. 22 led 36 laps and swept the first two stages. I would argue, though he might not have the amount of wins as Keselowski or Hamlin does collectively on superspeedways, that the Connecticut native is the best active superspeedway racer, and hands down the most entertaining with the maneuvers he makes.
Here's my bold statement of the week: I predict the No. 22 car to lead the most laps on Sunday. If so, that could pay off for you!
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Aric Almirola
(DraftKings $8,700 | FanDuel $12,000 | DK SportsBook +1600)
While the top four drivers listed are among the top five favorites for the win, Aric Almirola is no slouch on superspeedways. Both of his Cup victories have come at Daytona and Talladega, most recently winning in 2018.
Of all drivers in the field, Almirola has been the most consistent driver of finishing in the top 10 at Talladega over the last handful of years. Prior to his 37th-place finish last October, the Florida native had a streak of eight consecutive top-10 finishes at Talladega. That's impressive at any racetrack, let alone a superspeedway!
Don't forget, Almirola was among the pre-race favorites for this year's Great American Race. But on lap 14, a bump draft from Christopher Bell went wrong, triggering the "Big One." This week, Almirola said stage points don't matter for the No. 10 team because of their points position. He's going to Talladega win one objective: Win the race.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
(DraftKings $8,500 | FanDuel $11,000 | DK SportsBook +1800)
Like Almirola, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has seen the most success of his NASCAR career come at superspeedway tracks. He's aggressive, and oftentimes it pays off, with wins at both Daytona and Talladega.
Stenhouse finished second to Blaney in this race last year. In 15 career starts at the 2.66-mile track, the two-time Xfinity Series champion has nine top-10 finishes, with six of those being top fives (his most finishes inside the top five at one track). He's a great value pick, and probably underpriced when it comes to DraftKings this weekend.
Stenhouse said on Friday he's always confident heading into superspeedway races, so don't be surprised to see the No. 47 running towards the front. JTG Daugherty Racing has proved over the years it has a respectable superspeedway program.
Ryan Newman
(DraftKings $7,600 | FanDuel $3,500 | DK SportsBook +3300)
Most people remember Newman at Talladega for his remarkable crashes, twice flipping at the track. But though he's never won in Alabama, he's come awfully close, especially recently.
In Blaney's first victory at the superspeedway, it was Newman that lost out by .007 seconds. In the 2017 fall race that Keselowski won, it was Newman that was leading at the white flag. Of his seven starts at the track, he's had five top-10 finishes, with two runner ups.
Expect the typical Newman strategy at Talladega: Run at the back, hang on the tail end of the draft and be there at the end. Odds are he finishes inside the top 10.
Justin Haley
(DraftKings $5,900| FanDuel $3,500 | DK SportsBook +10000)
Justin Haley is a veryyy solid superspeedway races. He ended last year with three straight wins on such tracks in the Xfinity Series, including a season sweep of Talladega. And in limited starts at such tracks in the Cup series, he hasn't been too shabby.
No one can forget Spire Motorsports upsetting the world in the summer 2019 race at Daytona, when it was Haley, making just his third Cup start, ended up in victory lane (albeit in a rain-shortened race). In last year's Daytona 500, Haley finished 13th for Kaulig Racing, which made its first Cup start. And last fall Haley also competed at Talladega, missed the carnage and finished 11th.
Haley is very impressive at superspeedways and clearly knows what he's doing. The No. 77 car is most definitely worth its low price.
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