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We're back with another smorgasbord of Friday baseball as we begin the final weekend of the first half of the season. There are some hitters in especially appealing spots once again this week, and two pitchers who should have the right set of conditions to put together impressive performances against weaker opponents.
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I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Friday, July 7, 2023, in this article. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Aaron Civale OVER 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-126 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Civale has been impressive throughout most of the season and has generated a 3.00 ERA while surrendering two earned runs or less in five of the six starts he's logged since returning from a near-two-month stay on the injured list due to an oblique issue. His two worst outings of the season have come at home, but even those haven't been truly poor – he's yielded four earned runs apiece over 11.2 combined innings to the Mariners and Brewers in those outings.
Friday's favorable matchup comes in the form of a Royals team that's been one of the most punchless on the road against right-handed pitching in the last month, posting just a .231 average, .287 wOBA, -10.2 wRAA and 27.2 percent strikeout rate in that split. Civale, who's never had elite swing-and-miss stuff by any stretch, has seen a drop in strikeout rate this season to a middling 18.4 percent, but he's recorded at least six Ks in two of eight starts and has hit five in another pair of outings.
Given he's worked at least six frames in each of his last three starts and Kansas City has made such poor contact versus righties, I like Civale's chances of getting to at least six punchouts Friday, and oddsmakers apparently do also judging by the price.
Jordan Montgomery OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-111 Caesars SportsBook)
Montgomery not only enters Friday's road start against the White Sox in the midst of an impressive stretch of pitching, but he also draws a very enticing matchup on paper. The southpaw has posted five straight quality starts and came just an out short of also doing so in the outing right before that streak. Montgomery has generated a 4-0 record, 1.38 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and a tiny 0.3 HR/9 in that 32.2-inning sample.
While most of that success has come at home, Montgomery still has better numbers on the road this season. He's carrying a 2.91 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 0.8 HR/9 in 46.1 innings outside Busch Stadium, and he now gets a crack at a White Sox squad that's posted a 26.8 percent strikeout rate, .200 average, .572 OPS plus MLB-low .247 wOBA and 52 wRC+ against southpaws at home in the last month. Zooming out to a sample of the entire season at Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago is still a below-average team in terms of run scored in the split, posting a -4.8 wRAA.
Considering all those metrics, Montgomery should have a good chance of getting to at least six frames, which he's already done in five consecutive starts.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
— La Nación Red Sox (@lanacionboston) July 1, 2023
Justin Turner OVER 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The righty-swinging Turner has always thrived in same-handed matchups, and Friday, he draws a particularly enticing one versus A's rookie starter Luis Medina. The 24-year-old has pitched to a .285 BAA, 1.71 WHIP, 6.72 FIP, and .399 wOBA against righty bats, along with a 2.5 HR/9.
For his part, Turner boasts an impressive .298 average against right-handed pitching at Fenway Park, and he enters Friday's game in the midst of an absolutely torrid stretch at the plate that includes a .526 average (10-for-19) with a double, a home run, and seven RBI over his first five games of the month.
Turner has a combined 114 hits, runs, and RBI in 44 home games this season, an average of 2.6 per Fenway contest. Given Oakland's bullpen has also pitched to a 6.63 ERA, a .306 average, and a .386 wOBA against right-handed hitters in the last two weeks, I see this prop as extremely viable for Turner.
Amed Rosario At Least 2 Hits (+175 FanDuel SportsBook)
Rosario has punished Royals starter Daniel Lynch for a .546 average across 11 career encounters, a sample in which he hasn't struck out and also boasts a trio of extra-base hits. The veteran shortstop has always been an effective hitter against left-handed pitching and is particularly thriving versus southpaws this season, posting a .325 average, .867 OPS, and .375 wOBA in that split.
Those figures bump up to .347, .997, and .420, respectively, when just looking at his body of work at home against lefties. Then, Lynch has been very effective against righties over a small sample this season, but he conceded .313 and .287 averages, along with a combined 28 homers, to that handedness of hitter over his first two big-league stints in 2021 and 2022.
With the Royals bullpen also having pitched to a 6.52 ERA, .282 average, and .345 wOBA in the last two weeks, I like Rosario's chances of posting his 21st multi-hit game of the season.
Austin Slater OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Slater is typically in the lineup in right field and the leadoff spot over Joc Pederson when the Giants face lefties, and such should be the case again Friday with Austin Gomber on the hill for the visiting Rockies. Slater has enjoyed his encounters with the struggling Colorado southpaw over the years, posting a .600 average with three doubles and two triples over 16 plate appearances.
Gomber has been appreciably better on the road than at Coors Field, but he's still given up a .344 wOBA and 1.9 HR/9 when traveling. Meanwhile, Slater has slammed left-handers for a .385 average, .942 OPS, .415 wOBA, and 164 wRC+. Given how much hard contact he's managed off Gomber and the fact Colorado relievers have also pitched to an 8.13 ERA, .342 BAA, and .418 wOBA against right-handed hitters in the last two weeks, I'd roll the dice on Slater picking up at least two total bases.
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