RADIO
A weekly look back and ahead in the NASCAR Cup Series for DFS NASCAR players. Who were the best picks on DraftKings and FanDuel?
Every week following the most recent NASCAR Cup Series race and prior to the next event, we will review the previous week’s results for top takeaways, featuring the projections and predictions of the RotoBaller staff. Anchored by the 2023 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Racing Writer of the Year and well-regarded NASCAR DFS wizard Jordan McAbee, the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass includes everything you need to climb the tournament ladders, prevail in cash games and cash out in wagers every week.
I will look back at Jordan’s pre-race forecasts and also loop in the analysis of our other top NASCAR experts in a post-race breakdown of what was learned and can be utilized successfully going forward on DraftKings and FanDuel. Recent trends will be identified, and we will highlight where Jordan and the NASCAR team succeeded in their predictive endeavors.
For access to the full suite of content from Jordan and the crew and our deluxe garage of tools that can help you win big in both DFS and NASCAR betting, strap in with the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass. Included in the setup are our lineup optimizer, research station, cheat sheets, VIP chats, and much more. Enter promo code KING at checkout for an additional discount.
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Toyota/Save Mart 350 Recap: The Post-Race DFS Inspection
The Algorithm Is In Quite A Rhythm
Jordan McAbee’s totally unique and established algorithm for forecasting Cup race finishes is a focal point of RotoBaller’s NASCAR coverage for DFS competitors. Those who regularly rely on the formula have been enjoying a strong run of success during the last few events,
A mix of essential foundational statistics fuels the algorithmic formula, including recent results and overall trends, specific track data points, similar track performances, projected strength of the cars, practice speeds, starting positions, and other notable stats.
The algorithm then assigns a "Power Index" number to every driver that predicts which cars will have the top speeds for a race. All drivers are ranked by their Power Index marker to devise a projected finishing order.
Heading into Sonoma, the algorithm was on a very impressive recent run. At Gateway, the formula nailed five of the top seven finishers. Four of the top eight finishers at Darlington were forecasted to finish in that range. At Dover, the formula correctly projected eight drivers who finished in the top 10 to do so. Four of the top five finishers at Kansas placed within one to two spots of their predicted final positions.
At Sonoma Raceway, the formula rolled on with some more fantastic forecasting:
Kyle Larson – predicted to finish second and finished first.
Tyler Reddick – predicted to finish first, led the most laps (35 ), and had the most Fastest Laps (14).
Chase Elliott – projected to finish third, finished fourth.
A.J. Allmendinger – predicted to finish fourth, finished sixth
Ross Chastain – predicted to finish seventh, finished fifth.
Christopher Bell – predicted to finish 10th, finished ninth.
Ryan Blaney – projected to finish 11th, finished seventh.
Overall, the formula hit on eight of the top 11 finishers to place within that range. The algorithm came within one spot of correctly predicting the winner for the second consecutive week.
Larson Logs Third Win
Kyle Larson registered his third win of the season at Sonoma. It is imperative that you regularly consult the RotoBaller driver news feed for regular pre-race outlooks. Prior to the Toyota/Save Mart 350, driver updates writer Sean Engel, a 14-time DFS tournament winner, confirmed Larson as a supreme lineup pick.
Kyle Larson went from not being in the playoffs to being the regular-season points leader and the playoff point leader in a span of six days. What he said about that dynamic: pic.twitter.com/rns9dWZESy
— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) June 10, 2024
“Kyle Larson will start fifth for this week's Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. It's now the ninth time in his Cup career that Larson obtained a top-five starting position at Sonoma. In nine previous Cup starts at the site, Larson has one win, three top-10 finishes, and has led in three of the last five Cup events there.”
“With 14 starts completed in 2024, Larson has two wins, seven top-10 finishes, and leads all drivers with 655 laps led. During practice, Larson ranked as the fastest driver in five consecutive lap averages. Sonoma has been one of Larson's better tracks in recent years, and considering his practice speeds, expect him to be one of the favorites to compete for the win.”
Jordan recapped Larson’s victory in the post-race driver update.
“Larson had the best car all day, as he ranked fastest in Green Flag Speed and had the best Average Running Position as well. Looking at the points standings, Larson is now back atop there, as Denny Hamlin (who was the leader one week ago) suffered a blown engine at Sonoma. What's most impressive is that Larson is leading the points despite having one less start than every other full-time driver in the series. His current lead is 14 points over his teammate, Chase Elliott.”
Social Media Spotlight
This week’s betting preview for Iowa Speedway.
Jordan McAbee's NASCAR Betting Picks: Iowa Corn 350 at Iowa Speedway (Premium Content) https://t.co/8RysyRfFKT #FantasyNASCAR pic.twitter.com/wq6iuLALdP
— RotoBaller NASCAR (@NASCARDFS) June 11, 2024
The happy wagering recap from Sonoma.
Great week at Sonoma!
+6.6 units ✅ on the betting card
+48.1 units 💰 over last 14 racesVery happy with my DraftKings projections as well! Lineups built on the livestream were solid! #NASCAR @RotoBaller pic.twitter.com/wclixbKYmI
— Jordan McAbee (@FanRacingOnline) June 10, 2024
Chastain’s car for this week’s event at Iowa gets the thumbs up. Will the winnings from a tournament this week go towards a die cast purchase?
Dope. https://t.co/bhCpvwZWgg
— Jordan McAbee (@FanRacingOnline) June 11, 2024
Road Courses Might Derail Denny
Will Denny Hamlin finally earn his first Cup championship in 2024? In his post-race driver recap, driver news writer Sean Wrona warned that road courses may ultimately prevent Hamlin from earning the elusive championship this year.
“Denny Hamlin had a catastrophic engine failure while crossing the start-finish line to complete Lap 2 in Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma. The engine failure came without warning, snapping a five-race top-five streak for Hamlin, and cost him the points lead to eventual race winner Kyle Larson. Hamlin was relegated to a 38th-place finish, the first time he finished last in a race since last year's Charlotte Roval race, although he also finished last in the previous Sonoma race after a crash.”
“Clearly, road courses are Hamlin's biggest Achilles heel right now, as his second-place result at Watkins Glen last year has been his only top-10 road-course finish in the Next Gen car. With this year's playoffs having two road courses for the first time, Hamlin will need to work on this if he wants to finally win his first NASCAR Cup Series championship.”
Forecast Of The Week
Jordan McAbee stood firm on sticking with Chris Buescher on a road course in his weekly Cup picks article and was rewarded with a strong finish: “I'm going to keep going to the Chris Buescher-road course well until he hurts me. This guy has finished 11th or better in each of the last 11 road course races, and he's started 20th or worse in four of the last seven. His average finish in those four races? A very solid 7.25.”
.@Chris_Buescher has been a hell of a road course racer in the Gen 7 era.
He's finished top 10 in 10 of his last 11 RC starts (only other was a P11) and has finished 4th and 2nd in his last 2 starts at @RaceSonoma.
But he's yet to win on a road course in his Cup Series career.
— Davey Segal (@DaveyCenter) June 9, 2024
“This weekend at Sonoma, Buescher was 18th-fastest in practice and qualified 26th. He should be able to move up a good amount during the race, grabbing Place Differential points, and he's moderately priced at $8,600 on DraftKings.”
Here is the satisfying post-race update on Buescher.
“Heading into the Toyota/Save Mart 350 race on Sunday, it looked as though Chris Buescher may have been in a little trouble, as the Roush-Fenway Keselowski Racing driver qualified 26th and didn't look overly impressive in practice. However, as he normally does, Buescher came through with a solid performance--it was a road course, after all --and wound up third when the checkered flag waved. He also added in a Stage win, giving him 44 much-needed points on the day.”
“Looking at the playoff picture, Buescher now has a 24-point cushion on the cut line. The third-place result makes it 11 road course races in a row which he has finished 11th or better. His Place Differential during the race also helped DFS players massively, as Buescher was the highest-scoring driver on the slate, putting up 72.9 FPTS on DraftKings.”
Around The Track
-In the weekly Cup picks preview article, Allmendinger was recommended as a tournament play and delivered a respectable finish. – “Are people sleeping on A.J. Allmendinger for this race? Yeah, he didn't make the final round of qualifying, but he is a legitimate threat for a top-five finish. At $8,800 on DraftKings and with some Place Differential upside, I really like Allmendinger this weekend.”
-McDowell was pinpointed as a nifty play in the pre-race outlook. – “Michael McDowell qualified 12th for this weekend's Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway, but he should be able to improve on that positioning during the race itself. McDowell's No. 34 Ford was sixth-fastest in practice on Friday and the Front Row Motorsports driver has been very solid at this track as of late, with finishes of seventh and third in his last two Sonoma starts.”
“McDowell is also a solid road course racer overall, with finishes of eighth or better in six of the last eleven races on this track type. McDowell is priced at $8,500 on DraftKings and could go under-owned.”
