RADIO
A weekly look back and ahead in the NASCAR Cup Series for DFS NASCAR players. Who were the best picks on DraftKings and FanDuel?
Every week following the most recent NASCAR Cup Series race and before the next event, we will review the latest results for top takeaways, featuring the projections and predictions of the RotoBaller staff. Anchored by the 2023 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Racing Writer of the Year and well-regarded NASCAR DFS wizard Jordan McAbee, the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass includes everything you need to climb the tournament ladders, prevail in cash games and cash out in wagers every week.
I will look back at Jordan’s pre-race forecasts and also loop in the analysis of our other top NASCAR experts in a post-race breakdown of what was learned and can be utilized successfully going forward on DraftKings and FanDuel. Recent trends will be identified, and we will highlight where Jordan and the NASCAR team succeeded in their predictive endeavors.
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Iowa Corn 350 Recap And New Hampshire Insights
Bingo On Blaney
I have often referred to RotoBaller’s Justin Carter as the “hardest-working man in fantasy sports.” Not only does he write about all three NASCAR series for the site, but Carter has also covered several fantasy sports for RotoBaller. He maintains a highly detailed approach while taking on a significant fantasy workload.
Every week on RotoBaller.com, Justin provides a free NASCAR Cup series race preview that complements the premium offerings. He supplies more angles to consider for newer NASCAR DFS players and savvy participants who know they should diversify and roll out multiple lineups.
This past week, Ryan Blaney won the first-ever Cup event at Iowa, leading for a career-high 201 laps as he snapped a 17-race winless streak. Before the dominant victory, Carter tabbed the Penske star as a prime tournament play. Blaney had a price tag of $9,800 on DraftKings and $12,500 on FanDuel.
“Blaney won the Cup Series championship last season, but he's yet to find his way to Victory Lane in 2024. Still, he's come close at times, posting four top 5 finishes already. That puts him halfway to last year's total with 20 races left to go. His luck hasn't been great lately, as he's finished outside the top 20 in three of the last four races.”
On the heels of their @iowaspeedway win, Ryan @Blaney feels like his No. 12 @Team_Penske group is positioned well to defend their #NASCAR Cup Series title.
🗣️ "I feel pretty similar. Honestly, probably even better than where we were last year."
More → https://t.co/MKhd9eLXG8 pic.twitter.com/zhpl9q9GwV
— SiriusXM NASCAR Radio (Ch. 90) (@SiriusXMNASCAR) June 18, 2024
“Blaney has wins at Iowa in the Camping World Truck Series and the Xfinity Series, which includes a dominating performance in the August 2015 Xfinity race. Blaney led 252 of 260 laps in that one.”
“Blaney's second-place starting spot gives him a shot to get some clean air early and lead a good number of laps if he can get past Kyle Larson at the start. Easier said than done, of course, but I think there's a lot of value in Blaney as a pivot off Larson.”
Larson led for 80 laps and won the second stage, and it appeared he might battle Blaney to the finish. But he hit the wall on Lap 219 and finished 34th. As the Cup Series heads to New Hampshire, I will note that Blaney has never won at the site and has only two top 5 finishes in 11 starts. For now, though, those who took Carter’s recommendation can bask in the glow of the call until the next event, after Blaney scored a massive 117.8 points on DraftKings.
Tag Team Action On No. 12
Carter wasn’t the only RotoBaller NASCAR analyst to pinpoint Blaney as a quality pick. In the driver news update feed, Adam Erhardt also provided an in-depth pre-race scouting report for DFS purposes and reflected many of Carter’s takes.
“Blaney will start on the front row in Sunday's Iowa Corn 350. Despite Sunday being the inaugural Cup race at the renowned short track, it is not the first time NASCAR has run a featured event there. Between 2009 and 2019, Iowa was a regular stop on both the Xfinity and Truck schedule, a time frame over which the track hosted a total of 33 NASCAR-sanctioned races. In two of these races, a young up-and-coming driver from the Midwest entered Victory Lane in America's Heartland with wins that proved he was a star on the rise.
“That driver was, of course, Ryan Blaney, who won the Truck Series race in September 2012 and the Xfinity race in August 2015. While a lot has changed since he last won at this venue, the fact that he has multiple victories there makes him a driver that must be considered heading into the weekend. Interestingly, in both of those races, the second-generation driver started from second place, the same position he will start from Sunday night.”
Given that he is a driver who is averaging 47.13 DraftKings points in the Next Gen car on short tracks (eighth-best among full-time drivers) and that he has experience on this track, Blaney looks like a tremendous pivot play off of pole-sitter Kyle Larson. He is a driver you will want to have plenty of exposure to in DFS this weekend.”
A Strong Test For The Algorithm
Jordan McAbee’s winning and exclusive algorithm for predicting Cup race results is an axis of RotoBaller’s NASCAR coverage for DFS players. Those who consistently consult the forecasting of the formula have been seeing very satisfying returns recently.
A recipe of tasty key statistics is baked into the algorithmic formula, including recent results and overall trends, specific track data indicators, similar track performances, predicted strength of the cars, practice speeds, starting slots, and other essential stats.
The algorithm then dishes out a "Power Index" number to every driver that projects which cars will attain the top speeds in a race. All drivers are ranked by their Power Index number to assemble a projected finishing order.
Entering last week’s debut Cup event at Iowa, the algorithm was consistently delivering appealing results. In the prior race at Sonoma, the formula nailed eight of the top 11 finishers to place within that range. At Gateway, the algorithm hit on five of the top seven finishers.
Four of the top eight finishers at Darlington were projected to finish in that range. At Dover, the formula correctly forecasted eight drivers who finished in the top 10 to do so. Four of the top five finishers at Kansas placed within one to two spots of their projected final positions.
When we consider that this was the first Cup race at Iowa and there were no previous statistical data points to go by, projecting results was no easy task. Still, the formula showed it could generate quality outcomes.
Kyle Larson – predicted to finish first. He led for 80 laps, won the second stage, and had the second-most Fastest Laps (42).
William Byron – predicted to finish fourth and finished second.
Chase Elliott – projected to finish sixth, finished third.
Ryan Blaney – The race winner was projected to finish in the top 7.
Christopher Bell – predicted to finish eighth, finished fourth.
Joey Logano – projected to finish 10th, finished sixth.
Daniel Suarez – projected to finish 12th, finished eighth.
The algorithm might have come within one spot of forecasting the winner for a third consecutive week if Larson hadn’t been vanquished by a late-race mishap.
Social Media Spotlight
This week’s betting preview for New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
Jordan McAbee's NASCAR Betting Picks: USA Today 301 at New Hampshire (Premium Content) https://t.co/zndOsEJumh #FantasyNASCAR pic.twitter.com/yPh5AAYTwV
— RotoBaller NASCAR (@NASCARDFS) June 18, 2024
RotoBaller NASCAR writer Sean Engel, a 14-time DFS tournament winner, is eyeing a Martin Truex Jr. revival at Loudon.
A #NASCAR #DFS & #Betting observation to consider:
Martin Truex Jr. has no top-10 finishes since Kansas on May 5th.
With New Hampshire coming up, there's a high chance that fact changes. He has eight top-10s in the last nine Cup events there & he is the defending winner.
— Sean Engel (@SeanE247) June 17, 2024
Jordan just had to share this amusing series of clips from TrevChirps TikTok.
OF COURSE Austin Hill doesn’t have fun with this pic.twitter.com/Q1bJqQUYeQ
— Jordan McAbee (@FanRacingOnline) June 17, 2024
Keselowski Can Boost Your Loudon Outlook
Brad Keselowski has three top 3 finishes and four top 10s in his last six starts. Driver updates writer Chris Wassel says you should consider rostering the RFK Racing No. 6 driver in New Hampshire.
“Brad Keselowski started fifth at Iowa Speedway on Sunday evening. It looked like the RFK Racing driver would slip a lot. However, Keselowski managed to keep it together and finished 10th. He even racked up five stage points.”
“Keselowski is in the playoffs but dropped two spots in the points race. With New Hampshire coming up, Keselowski and his Ford should be ready for the one-mile track. He has an Average Finishing Position of 5,0, including two Top 5 results in the past three races at Loudon. Can the Ford driver contend again? That answer is yes.”
Forecast Of The Week
Adam Erhardt highlighted Ricky Stenhouse Jr. as a nifty play for Iowa, and those who followed the recommendation in the pre-race driver update were rewarded with his fifth-place finish: “Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will start from the 35th spot in Sunday's Iowa Corn 350. With just two top 10 finishes and after finishing outside the top 20 in three of the last four races, it is safe to say that 2024 has been a challenge for the 14-year Cup veteran.”
35th to 5th, glad to keep the trend of good runs at Iowa rolling 🌽 @NosEnergyDrink pic.twitter.com/j7gtmUevtM
— Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (@StenhouseJr) June 17, 2024
“The question now becomes: Is that bounce-back, season-saving race going to happen this weekend at Iowa? If you look at his qualifying position alone, the answer would be no. However, if you look at the actual numbers, there is a case to be made for the JTG Daugherty Racing driver this weekend at Iowa. Despite finishing last in his group's qualifying round, his speed of 131.316 mph was better than 10 drivers who qualified in Group A, which shows his car is not as bad as his qualifying spot may suggest.”
“Likewise, his speed of 135.356 mph in Friday's practice was the 12th-fastest of the day; another reason to consider Stenhouse this weekend is the fact that he won three consecutive races at this track in the Xfinity Series, something no other driver has done. At a starting position that offers tremendous Place Differential upside on a track he has had success on, the No. 47 should be included among your value plays in DFS this weekend.”
Around The Track
-In his Xfinity Series preview for Iowa, Carter touted Corey Heim and Sammy Smith as good mid-tier options. Heim finished third, and Smith placed fourth: “Heim turned in the fastest lap of practice, logging the only lap with an Average Speed of over 139 miles per hour. In fact, only two drivers were even over 138 miles per hour. He had a pair of top 10s at the site in ARCA with an Average Finish of 5.0. His production in 2024 in Xfinity has been hit or miss, but he did finish fourth at Richmond.”
“This is a home race for Smith, as the driver of the No. 8 car for JR Motorsports is from the Des Moines suburb of Johnston. He's run a pair of ARCA races at Iowa, most recently in 2022, when he led 64 of 150 laps and finished second to Brandon Jones. Smith was fifth in practice.”
In the pre-race driver updates feed, Sean Engel invited DFS players to roster Alex Bowman for Place Differential promise at Iowa. Bowman started 33rd and finished eighth. “This is Bowman's lowest starting position of the year so far in all Cup events, including exhibition and non-points races. Although this will be Bowman's first Cup race at Iowa, he does have a win in the ARCA Menards Series and two top-10 finishes in the Xfinity Series at the site.”
“The No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports driver is one of the most consistent drivers of the year, regardless of track type, as he has nine top-10 finishes through 16 races. In practice, Bowman showcased that he has one of the best cars in the field this week, as he had top 5 speeds through all eligible categories. With massive Place Differential upside, top-notch equipment, and faster practice speeds than most, expect Bowman to place in the Top 10.”
