Fantasy Football Draft Targets And Avoids- NFC North Breakdowns For Cole Kmet, David Montgomery, Aaron Jones, more

Welcome to the second entry in this series where, using Yahoo's half-PPR ADP, we identify players from each team that fantasy managers should target or avoid based on their current price. The first entry, which focused on teams in the AFC North, can be found here. Today, we will focus on the NFC North.

When it comes to fantasy football drafts, we spend so much time evaluating players, but we often don’t spend enough time evaluating how much they cost. Getting a player’s future production correct is only half the battle. Deciphering what that production is worth on draft day is even more important.

Every player has a price, and you should never be all-in on someone before you figure it out. We all want to draft the players we like the most, but it might be wiser to end up with zero shares of a player we like if their price is too high. The same is true for being out on someone whose price might actually make them a value. In this series, we will focus on the price of each player and tell you who to target and who to avoid on draft day. With fantasy football draft season right around the corner, don't forget to use the promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10% discount on any premium purchase.

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Chicago Bears

Players to Target – RB Roschon Johnson

The Bears' backfield is the perfect example of an ambiguous situation. Nobody knows for sure which of their three running backs will end up leading the way, not even Chicago’s offensive coordinator, Luke Getsy. This ambiguity makes it an enticing backfield to target because the uncertainty keeps their prices low.

Currently, Yahoo drafters are selecting Khalil Herbert as the RB37. Former Panther D'Onta Foreman is going as the RB45. Fourth-round rookie Roschon Johnson is the cheapest of the trio, coming in at RB49, making him our ideal candidate. When the outcome is unknown, like in Chicago's backfield, it's best to target the cheapest option. Additionally, Johnson may also have the upper hand over his teammates.

Foreman, while productive last year with Carolina, has mainly been a journeyman running back and is only on a one-year contract. Herbert was also drafted by the previous regime. While the Bears won't be ready to compete in 2023, they could be in 2024. The front office and coaching staff might decide they want to get a good long look at Johnson in the second half of the season. This could make Johnson a viable fantasy asset down the stretch, and his cost is incredibly cheap for the upside it presents.

Not only that but the options in Chicago’s offense are limited. Justin Fields’ ADP is high, despite doubts surrounding his ability to be an elite passer. The Bears' dismal passing volume also makes you wonder what D.J. Moore’s upside is in the Windy City.

Players to Avoid – TE Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet’s current ADP doesn’t seem too outlandish at first. After all, Yahoo drafters are selecting him as TE14, which is a relatively small investment all things considered. However, he is someone fantasy managers ought to be avoiding.

Last season, Kmet had 11 weekly finishes as the TE15 or lower. Keep in mind that this was in an offense where Chase Claypool was a non-factor and Darnell Mooney missed five and a half games. Despite these circumstances, Kmet only managed four weekly finishes inside the top 10. What’s going to happen this year if Claypool is up to speed and Mooney is healthy? Let's not forget that D.J. Moore is now on the roster as well!

Last season, the Bears averaged a mere 22.2 pass attempts per game, the lowest in the NFL since 1990. The passing volume in Chicago is clearly a major concern. While it is likely to increase in 2023, it will still be one of the league's worst. Even if we project the Bears to throw the ball 28 times per game (a significant increase from last season), they would have only ranked 29th in passing attempts compared to last season. This doesn't even take into account their ongoing quarterback concerns.

The numbers above are Justin Fields’ stats compared to the 33 other qualifying QBs. The Bears' extremely low team passing volume is one significant part of the problem. However, the other issue lies with Fields' passing ability. To put it bluntly, based on what we’ve seen, he is a very bad passer. Both of these factors put every Bears pass-catcher at risk of falling short of their ADP expectations.

D.J. Moore’s ADP of WR22 is another concern that fantasy managers need to approach with caution. Moore's upside is relatively limited because we can't realistically expect a massive increase in volume. This will remain an issue even if the Bears show improvement in passing volume compared to 2022. The efficiency of Fields is another variable to consider. Simply put, there are a lot of things that could go wrong for both Kmet and Moore. If you’re looking for a more in-depth read on Moore’s fantasy outlook, you can find that here.

The reality is that the volume is not going to increase enough to sustain the new additions to the Bears' offense and keep Kmet fantasy-relevant. Fantasy managers would be wise to consider selecting Tyler Higbee, Greg Dulcich, or Juwan Johnson, all of whom are cheaper than Kmet.

Detroit Lions

Players to Target – RB David Montgomery

David Montgomery is an awesome value for fantasy managers looking to wait on selecting a running back. He’s currently being selected as the RB27 on Yahoo, with an absurdly low seventh-round ADP. Last season, Jamaal Williams finished as the RB18 in terms of half-PPR PPG average, and Monty is better than Williams.

Along with Montgomery, the Lions added shiny new rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, making their backfield the lifeblood of their offense. Their pass-catching weapons are basically Amon-Ra St. Brown and nobody else, at least until Jameson Williams returns from a six-game suspension. As a result, this offense relies heavily on its running game, supported by a top-five offensive line.

Last year, Detroit's running backs combined for 426 carries, 115 targets, and 81 receptions. I can assure you there will be plenty of opportunities for both Montgomery and Gibbs to be involved. While Gibbs may get most of the passing work, fantasy managers should expect Montgomery to handle goal-line situations.

Montgomery is not getting nearly enough credit for the player he’s been since entering the league. Since his rookie season, he’s averaged 268 touches per season and 1,212 scrimmage yards. He has also added 39 receptions per season. Fantasy managers can currently draft a player of that caliber in the seventh round, who is also on a top-10 offense with a top-five offensive line. Moreover, his team lost their bulldozing runner who scored 17 rushing touchdowns last year. What’s not to love? If you're looking for a more in-depth read on why to target Montgomery, you can find that here, where I discuss some of the best cheap, workhorse running backs.

Players to Avoid – None

Truthfully, there are no Detroit players you need to avoid at their current prices. If you want to draft Jared Goff as QB16, go for it. Gibbs at RB15? Sounds good to me. What about ARSB at WR9 or Jameson Williams at WR49? Both are totally reasonable. Even rookie Sam LaPorta’s TE21 ranking is not something fantasy managers need to shy away from. This offense is going to be one of the better ones in the NFL, especially considering their bottom-10 defense. However, Monty’s ADP is the best of the bunch.

Green Bay Packers

Players to Target – RB Aaron Jones

The quarterback change from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love has most fantasy managers nervous to invest in the Green Bay offense. As a result, Yahoo drafters are currently selecting Aaron Jones as the RB16. This makes him an excellent target when we examine his all-around efficiency (specifically his yards per touch and PlayerProfiler’s yards created per touch statistic) since Matt LaFleur became his head coach. Jones stands out as one of the most complete backs in the NFL.

He can be effective if used primarily as a rusher and can also excel as a pass-catcher. This past season, he ranked in the top 10 for rushing yards over expected per attempt, yards after contact per attempt, and true yards per carry. Since 2019, Jones has consistently finished inside the top 12 in targets, receptions, and receiving yards among running backs. Not surprisingly, his fantasy production has been superb ever since LaFleur came over to Green Bay.

While there may be concerns about Love’s negative impact on the Packers’ offense, it's important to note that Jones managed to finish as an RB1 last season. This was despite scoring only seven touchdowns, which was the lowest since his rookie season. In fact, it was his lowest touchdown rate in the past four years by a significant margin. In 2019, he scored on 6.67% of his touches. He scored on 4.43% and 4.48% of his touches in 2020 and 2021, respectively. In 2022, his scoring rate dropped to 2.57% and he still finished as an RB1! This should ease concerns regarding a potentially poorer offense.

With Jones' current price at just RB16, the "Jordan Love risk" is already baked into his price. The potential of Jones to perform as a backend RB1 is still there and is far more obtainable than his current price suggests. He is the best value pick among players in the RB2 range.

Players to Avoid – RB A.J. Dillon

It’s really hard to see what value there is for fantasy managers at Dillon’s current price on Yahoo at RB31. He provides very little standalone value. It seems the only way he can earn his current cost is if Aaron Jones gets hurt, which is obviously a possibility.

However, if that is the only route, fantasy managers are better off drafting a much cheaper handcuff. Using RotoViz’s NFL Player Stat Explorer, which you can find here, you can see just how valuable Dillon has been week-to-week since 2021.

The reality is, not very valuable. There’s an awful lot of red (RB3 finish or worse) on there. Jones played all 17 games this past year but missed two in 2021. In those two contests -- Weeks 11 and 18 -- Dillon scored 12.7 and 7.2 points in half-PPR scoring, respectively.

His two RB1 weeks (green) in 2021 were in Weeks 10 and 17. He just happened to score two touchdowns. Good luck predicting that! Over the past two years when Jones hasn’t been hurt, he’s given fantasy managers 12 weeks of RB2 value or better. He accomplished that just one time without a touchdown. In those 12 weeks where he was either an RB2 (black) or an RB1, he scored 14 touchdowns. That makes it very difficult to know when to start him.

Dillon is basically a touchdown-or-bust running back with a fairly high price tag considering what you’re getting back. Jamaal Williams and Damien Harris may also find themselves in a touchdown-or-bust role with their respective teams (Saints and Bills), but they’re both two to three rounds cheaper. Alvin Kamara and Brian Robinson, who are both going about 10 picks behind Dillon, offer much better value.

Minnesota Vikings

Players to Target – WR Jordan Addison

What should I start with -- the fact that Jordan Addison is really good at football, or the fact that Minnesota is an incredible fantasy landing spot for any receiver? Let’s start with Minnesota. Kirk Cousins has three straight seasons of throwing for more than 4,200 yards and has averaged 32 touchdowns over that time. Cousins is really good and incredibly underrated.

Vikings top-two fantasy football WRs with Kirk Cousins:

2022: Justin Jefferson (WR2); Adam Thielen (WR43)
2021: Jefferson (WR4); Thielen (WR14)
2020: Jefferson (WR9); Thielen (WR11)
2019: Stefon Diggs (WR25); Thielen (WR42)
2018: Thielen (WR7); Diggs (WR11)

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 16, 2023

And that’s the best part! All of Cousins’ stats have correlated beautifully with the fantasy success of his receivers and there is a ton of opportunity for Addison this year. Last season, the Vikings distributed 143 targets to Adam Thielen and Irv Smith Jr., both of whom are no longer with the team. They finished with 95 receptions, 898 yards, and eight touchdowns.

Now to Addison’s talent. Below is his Reception Perception chart from his 2023 rookie profile, done by the incredibly awesome Matt Harmon. You can read his entire profile of Addison here.

In his profile, Matt Harmon had the following to say about the talented rookie:

“His slight frame does show up in his work against press. His 51.1% success rate is quite poor and does give me some pause when projecting him as a full-time outside receiver… The rest of Addison’s route tree is darn near exceptional. He absolutely hammers defenses on short to intermediate in-breaking routes. Addison’s acceleration and well-timed breaks at route stems are marvelous when working over the middle… Overall, I see Addison as an excellent projection to a flanker/slot position in the NFL with the route acumen and timing to be able to contribute right away. He may top out as a strong running mate to a true No. 1 receiver but there is still a massive need for receivers like that across the league.”

Did you catch that last part? “Strong running mate to a true No. 1 receiver?” Sounds just like Minnesota. While defenses are occupied with Justin Jefferson, Addison will have plenty of favorable matchups that he should be able to exploit. He is currently only being drafted as the WR40 on Yahoo. He has WR2 upside this year and should be no worse than a solid WR3, making him an absolute slam-dunk pick at his current cost.

Players to Avoid – RB Alexander Mattison

Alexander Mattison’s ADP hasn’t gotten out of hand yet, but it will. He’s currently being selected as the RB26, but Dalvin Cook’s release is still relatively new. Mattison's ADP will continue to climb as the summer progresses.

Where would you rank Alexander Mattison in half-PPR, redraft leagues?

— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) June 8, 2023

If his ADP reaches the heights seen in the tweet above, being drafted in the RB13-15 range, fantasy managers should definitely avoid him. Ideally, you should be able to select Mattison as a backend RB2. Any higher than that and you’re drafting a player’s situation over a player’s talent. That's always a risky bet. Unfortunately, I suspect Mattison’s ADP will get up into the teens, making him a player to avoid.

The reality is Mattison has also not been that good. According to PlayerProfiler, his true yards per carry average last year was just 3.8, which ranked 57th. He had just one breakaway run, defined as a carry gaining more than 15 yards. His 1.4% rate was abysmal. His yards after contact per attempt of just 1.5 were tied with Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette. He also averaged just 0.73 yards per route run, indicating he leaves a lot to be desired as a receiver. Unfortunately, this isn’t a new trend.

In 2021, his true yards per carry average was even worse, clocking in at 3.5, which was 68th. His breakaway run rate was slightly better at 3.0%, but it still ranked just 39th among running backs. Put simply, Mattison is not as talented as Cook. Betting on Mattison is betting on his role. His role could be very good, but if he doesn’t play well enough to keep it, therein lies the risk.

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