Fantasy Baseball Third Base ADP Report - Draft Targets and Avoids (2025)

January 30, 2025

Tim's 2025 fantasy baseball third base (3B) draft sleepers, targets, avoids based on ADPs. His favorite third base fantasy baseball sleepers to draft in 2025.

The 2025 fantasy baseball average draft position (ADP) for third base steeply declines after the first four or five names.

This speaks to the varying skill offerings, uncertain trust in 2024 breakout names, and the realization by most early 2025 drafters that they can wait to wade through those giant middle tiers.

This ADP is from 20 NFBC Draft Champion drafts. You'll find the ADP tables below, along with my analysis of the ADP at the position, player values I like/dislike, etc. Reminder: this is simply the ADP data for third basemen, not my rankings.

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Third Base Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis

Third Basemen I Plan To Draft Most Frequently

1. Manny Machado - San Diego Padres
2. Isaac Paredes - Houston Astros
3. Junior Caminero - Tampa Bay Rays
4. Noelvi Marte - Cincinnati Reds
5. Matt Chapman - San Francisco Giants
6. Maikel Garcia - Kansas City Royals
7. Joey Ortiz - Milwaukee Brewers
8. Connor Norby - Miami Marlins
9. Ke'Bryan Hayes - Pittsburgh Pirates
10. Matt Shaw - Chicago Cubs

If you want stolen bases from a top ADP third basemen not named Jose Ramirez, who's elite regardless, you either pay for Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s game-changing contributions there or Machado's double-digit potential a round or two later.

If I'm not concerned about the batting average, I'd likely try for Chisholm. Still, in leagues where BA matters, I'd prioritize San Diego's likely cleanup hitter, which remains an incredible situation for fantasy production.

While the Pads' Statcast Park Factor ranks tied for second to last at 96, Petco Park continues to modestly improve home run potential: a 104 rating overall (ninth), 111 for righty bats (T-sixth). Machado has taken advantage:

Most HR at home in the last 10 seasons:

176 — Manny Machado
164 — Aaron Judge
162 — Nolan Arenado

The only players with 160 or more. pic.twitter.com/50xgmXbw9K

— StatMuse Baseball (@statmusemlb) December 27, 2024

Paredes' batting order role in front of Yordan Alvarez feels worthy of a fantasy target. Expect his price point to surge in the next month-plus.

Caminero's batting average in his first MLB action leaned heavily on success versus lefty pitchers, but he hit six of seven of his homers against righty pitching, which shows a foundation that is ready to explode. He turns 22 in July and, despite more growing pains to come, is worth the gamble among the group of names. Stash a more stable player in the later rounds of deep leagues to serve as insurance.

Even after the Jonathan India trade, Marte could be stuck in the Reds' plate-appearance shuffle in the infield, especially after the acquisition of Gavin Lux. However, the 23-year-old's power-speed combo could push him into a significant role that would compile valuable supplemental numbers at a fantasy corner infield spot.

Is Chapman a predictable HR and RBI grab? Sure. Does he require a large commitment of value? Not really in mixed leagues.

Is Garcia a predictable steals-first grab? Sure. Does he require a large commitment of value? Not really in mixed leagues. I can't hate that multipositional eligibility, either.

Ortiz's defense and versatility should keep him in Milwaukee's lineup all year. His hit tool carried his prospect hype, though, and another full year of experience should position him to increase his R+RBI potential while sniffing 20-20 territory. Norby carries a similar vibe with a much higher power ceiling.

Remember when Hayes was a middle-round pick in mixed drafts? Yeesh. The burden of proof that he can deliver on his past prospect hype is much more alluring in 2025 than in previous seasons. For a 20-20 year, if everything breaks, right? Why not?

Shaw's power remains in question, but the top Cubs prospect's bat speed, versatility, speed, and projectable extra-base offense should allow him to step into Paredes' abandoned role early in the season.

Third Base ADPs I Don't Love

Mark Vientos, New York Mets

It's difficult to criticize too many of these third-base ADPs, given the general reliability of the best names, a widespread acceptance of the risk-reward profiles comprising a giant mid-range group, the specialized targeting of those players with diverse skill sets that complete draft strategies, and the comfortable margin for error for those who wait. (If these mid-range names bust in mixed leagues ... who cares? Replacement value remains abundant.)

However, the most popular option after the top five is an apt case to examine.

While Vientos' pop looks real, can he take the necessary steps forward with plate discipline and sustain a pace close to his seemingly inflated 26.5% HR/FB last year? I'm not confident the flaws in the 25-year-old's game are baked adequately into his ADP.

The peripheral benefits of hitting behind Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto will keep his price relatively high, but the actual player's skills matter, too.

I get the urgency to grab one of the likely best players in that ocean of mid. Just be prepared to suffer the most from anyone drafting in those tiers if Vientos falls short of expectations.

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