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Frank's deep dive into starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, waiver wire adds for Week 9 of 2026. Are these unlikely aces potential league winners?
We're moving onto our ninth edition of Unlikely Aces in 2026. This is an article where we dive into surprising pitchers who have exceeded expectations so far this season. The goal here is to try to figure out whether or not they're worth holding or if you should try to cash in and sell high for a profit. We'll also consider buying high if everything looks good under the hood.
Pitching has been filled with injuries this season, which seems to be the case every year, although it's kind of crazy this year, with high-end arms like Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet currently on the injured list. That's where the Unlikely Aces come in. These pitchers have been exactly what your fantasy team has needed to help overcome these injuries. But can they keep it up?
Read on to find out how you should value Michael Wacha, Emerson Hancock, and Michael Soroka. Each of these pitchers has strong ratios, but we'll take a closer look if underlying metrics support this breakout. Find out why Wacha and Soroka are ripe for regression, while Hancock is starting to slow down after a hot start. Do note that any roster percentages referenced here are from Yahoo! leagues.
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Michael Wacha, SP, Kansas City Royals
45% Rostered
Michael Wacha is a veteran righty putting up strong ratios so far this season. In 70.1 innings, Wacha has a 2.69 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP with a 21.7% strikeout rate and an 8.0% walk rate. This is a pitcher who has quietly put up three sub-3.50 ERA seasons in his last four. That doesn't include what he's done this year so far. Wacha has established himself as an underrated innings-eater.
We just saw Wacha put up seven strong innings against a tough Yankees lineup, allowing only two earned runs with two walks and five strikeouts.
What Wacha does well is utilize his six-pitch arsenal effectively, spreading it out between his four-seamer and changeup while also including a cutter, sinker, curveball, and slider. He's a crafty veteran who knows how to overcome his 98 Stuff+.
Despite how effective he's been, Wacha's four-seamer has been hit hard, as highlighted by a .367 xwOBA. However, he's gotten a bit lucky, as it's only given up a .289 wOBA. This is seen in his 4.07 SIERA, which is considerably higher than his 2.69 ERA.
Wacha's best pitch has been his changeup, which is allowing a .234 xwOBA on the season. The pitch has induced a 33.6% whiff rate.
In terms of pitch mix, it's been almost identical across the board. The only notable difference is that Wacha has cut his slider usage from 12.2% to 7.9% while bumping up his curveball from 7.7% to 9.5%. This makes a lot of sense, since his curveball has been much more effective (.222 xwOBA) than his slider (.296 xwOBA), making it the right move.
It's starting to feel like Wacha is just the kind of crafty pitcher who can consistently outperform his peripherals. While he's not going to maintain such a low WHIP, especially considering his below-average strikeout rate, he's likely to be a solid contributor for the backend of your rotation.
Wacha tends to get in a rhythm, as he's in right now, so ride the wave while it lasts.
Verdict: You probably won't get much in a sell-high attempt, as Wacha has that "boring veteran" label attached to him. Therefore, the move is to just hold him and enjoy this production while it lasts.
Emerson Hancock, SP, Seattle Mariners
64% Rostered
Emerson Hancock is having a breakout season, putting up a 3.07 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP with a 26.2% strikeout rate and a 5.7% walk rate in 58.2 innings. You have to be impressed with how he's bumped up his K% by 9.6% while trimming his BB% by 2.4%. He's inducing whiffs at a much higher rate, as his swinging-strike rate has gone from 8.9% to 11.3%.
The biggest change here is that Hancock has bumped up his sweeper usage from 3.2% to 20.5%. The pitch has been terrific for him, as it's inducing a 37.0% whiff rate while allowing a .183 xwOBA.
Hancock has also started to throw a cutter (11.8% usage). This is a pitch that has impressive metrics, including a .199 xwOBA and a 34.9% whiff rate. So, here we have a pitcher who has upgraded his arsenal in a major way.
This is a brand new pitcher, but you already knew that, since Hancock has been highlighted before, especially after his dominant outing on Sunday Night Baseball against the Guardians in his season debut.
So then why am I including him in this article?
That's because, since his 14-strikeout game against the White Sox, heading into Tuesday's start, Hancock had a 4.45 SIERA with a 20.0% strikeout rate and a 10.0% walk rate. He ended up pitching a gem against the A's, but the strikeouts are still down.
While Hancock has clearly shown growth as a pitcher, it may be time to try to sell high, especially with Bryce Miller back healthy and looking rock-solid on the mound.
Verdict: Put out some feelers on Hancock to see what you can get for him. With that said, I should point out that this could just be the ebbs and flows of a long season. We can't overreact, but we still have to consider the risk that he's regressing a bit. We'll keep a close eye on Hancock's next few starts.
Michael Soroka, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
38% Rostered
Michael Soroka is putting up a 3.27 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP with a 24.5% strikeout rate and a 6.0% walk rate. You have to like that 18.5 K-BB%, which is a career-high. Soroka has also increased his swinging-strike rate from 9.4% to 10.3%. What's most intriguing is that the ERA is supported by the underlying metrics, including an impressive 3.40 SIERA.
You have to like the change in pitch mix, which supports this potential breakout. Soroka throws five pitches, including a slurve, four-seamer, cutter, changeup, and sinker.
This is a major change from last year. Soroka has decreased his four-seamer usage from 45.4% to 32.9%. That's a good idea because it's been his worst pitch, allowing a .370 xwOBA. Soroka has introduced a brand new cutter, which he didn't throw last year. The pitch has induced a .325 xwOBA with a 21.3% whiff rate.
After getting crushed by the Brewers for eight runs in three innings on April 30th, Soroka has been terrific. During these four starts, he has a 1.48 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP with a 21.6% strikeout rate and a 5.2% walk rate in 24.1 innings. While he's gotten a bit lucky in this stretch (3.59 SIERA), it's clear that he's in a nice rhythm right now.
However, we should note that other than a start at Coors, it's been an easy stretch for Soroka. He's faced the Rockies at home, the Rangers on the road, and the Pirates at home during this stretch.
This could be just a case of him taking advantage of exploitable matchups. With that said, the season-long numbers still look good, so Soroka looks like a rock-solid contributor for the backend of your rotation, especially since the Diamondbacks are starting to heat up. That could provide more win opportunities for this right-hander.
Verdict: Even with these numbers, I'd still rank Soroka third on this list, behind Hancock and Wacha. But we have to acknowledge how effective he's been recently. He's not a pitcher I'm getting too excited about, but he can still be a solid contributor.
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