DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Sentry With Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Jason Day, and More Golf Advice (2024)

January 1, 2024

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The Sentry. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

I always spend my offseason in hibernation mode, away from the accumulation of what becomes nearly 48 straight weeks of golf. Getting a reset before fully diving back into the mix at The Sentry has been something I have safely done for the past few years. However, this month-long hiatus has taken me back to when I used to play with my Tamagotchi as a young child.

It only took a couple of days of inactivity to come back to the PGA Tour taking a hit when it lost Jon Rahm to LIV. A few stray pieces of poop were never enough to kill your Tamagotchi character. Still, this continued destructive path will ravage professional golf for all players, content creators, and fans alike if something isn't done to alleviate the problem.

It is important to realize that golf is not a sport that can withstand two tours. Thankfully, there have been reports that the PGA and LIV merger will extend its talks, with a new goal being tentatively set for the Masters in April. Nonetheless, this is a pressing matter that needs resolution because I don't know how long people will continue watching this drama unfold. Fans want top-notch golf and not another season of 'Golf Shore.' The only 'GTL' I want moving forward is if it stands for 'Golf Tandem League.' Let's end this nightmare before our bad dreams turn into a full-time reality.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Sentry

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Sentry Model

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

• Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.

TeeOffSports membership

• $224.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
• You can also try things out for $14.99 per week or get the complete PGA Platinum package from everyone on the team for $299.99. I believe that deal is one of the best offers in the space since it includes top-notch work from the likes of Joe Nicely, Byron Lindeque, others, and myself!

Field

Field Size: 59
Cut: No Cut
Top 20 Entrants: 17

Last Five Winners Of The Sentry

Expected Cut-Line

Kapalua Plantation Course

7,596 Yards - Par 73 - Greens: Bermuda

Why does it feel like the event formerly known as 'The Sentry Tournament of Champions' has transformed into a contest for anyone still left on the PGA Tour? It is almost as if Commissioner Jay Monahan sat at the drawing board and decided to shorten the event's name to simply 'The Sentry,' all while enhancing the field to account for the purge of his tour.

I realize that is too broad of an overstatement since players like Justin Thomas and Min Woo Lee aren't in Hawaii to begin their 2024 season. Those are options that Monahan would have loved to utilize because of their sheer popularity. Still, the expectation of this being a more robust contest does prop to the forefront of the discussion when you insert an additional 20+ of the best PGA Tour players in the world into the mix.

Designed in 1991 by Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore, the minor restorations provided to the property over the past 33 years have yet to do much to augment the challenge when we look directly at scoring rates over the past few years. 36 of 38 players finished 10-under par or better at the course in 2022. The same sentiment came to fruition in 2023 after 33 of 38 golfers landed under that same mark.

Slow Bermuda green complexes and open fairways are pronounced from the second you step onto the grounds. We see a 12% increase in driving accuracy that is accompanied by an eight-yard upsurge in distance. Those two factors help to proliferate the GIR uptick that expands from 65% to 79% -- creating one of the highest expected 'Green in Regulation' projections on tour yearly.

I will say that Kapalua possesses more scrambling and three-putt avoidance than most birdie shootout courses. It is likely one of the main reasons why a non-American has won this event 11 times since 2002. Nonetheless, we are looking at a tournament with massive inflation regarding proximity within 100 yards and slow and soft Bermuda that will get highlighted on these gargantuan green complexes.

Essentially, if you can produce birdie looks when you get a short iron in hand and control your putter on a surface that is meant to be pure but slow, that will be the recipe for who walks out of Hawaii with the first title of the year. Added distance does help because of the wide-open nature, but I am more intrigued by how players increase their projection when given easy fairways + limited rough over the straight return of length off the tee.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (35%)

Three-Putt + Split Between Slow/Soft Bermuda (10%)

Strokes Gained Total: Soft/Slow Greens (10%)

Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring (15%)

Strokes Gained Total: Easy Fairways + Limited Rough (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Total Number Of Top-10's Out Of The Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are three players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

Ownership will shift over the upcoming days. That is one of the reasons I want to ensure that we avoid getting mentally stuck over numbers that will inevitably look vastly different 48 hours from now. That said, highlighting the pros and cons of all three names does emphasize a clear-cut power ranking system for me.

Scottie Scheffler ($11,000) would be my preferred target in this section because of his robust statistical profile in every non-putting metric. My model did uncover a 33-spot improvement on these slow Bermuda greens versus his baseline if we are looking for the potential of him spiking with the flat stick.

Those projections will exponentially add to the upside my data uncovered from his first-place marks for weighted total driving, GIR percentage, weighted scoring, overall par-three/par-four projection, weighted strokes gained total, strokes gained total on soft and slow greens, and strokes gained when given an easy-to-hit fairway that has no rough. There is a reason he is the man to beat on all sites.

I am going to pass on Viktor Hovland ($10,500). His late-season surge from winning the FedExCup Championship is being baked into his going rate here in Hawaii. Sure, there are some metrics that will overwrite his previous history at Kapalua. However, Hovland has yet to come better than 18th place at this limited-field tournament during all three past iterations. 

I am not going to solely discredit a younger version of him after not producing to the tune of what his current self has found. Still, landing outside the top 30 of a 59-man field for expected strokes gained on slow/soft Bermuda greens and three-putt avoidance may put too much stress on a sometimes rocky short game.

And then it looks like the popularity around Xander Schauffele ($10,000) will end up being the ultimate decider of his playability. Outside of his withdrawal at the event last season, the American has not finished lower than 12th at Kapalua since 2018. The wide-open nature of the layout has always propelled his driver to greater heights, making him someone who is adequately priced in most market projections.  

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

There are a few routes to try and get unique in this section, even if none of those paths will involve Patrick Cantlay ($9,900) or Collin Morikawa ($9,100) since both are slotted to land as two of the more popular choices on the board when the event starts on Thursday. 

I have been a proponent of this idea over the years that any "safety" answer can sometimes cause an overinflation in popularity, especially in a no-cut event like we have here at Kapalua. Still, each has substantial merit from a statistical perspective when diving into the duo grading inside the top three of this event for their expected floor production. It doesn't mean I will necessarily play either when constructing my final player pool, but I will let numbers settle before taking a strong stance on what route I want to use for the season's opening tournament. My early lean would be to play one and fade the other when push comes to shove.

Part of that reason of eliminating one of those options entirely is because I do have a plethora of contrarian choices that are popping as massive values in my sheet when looking into the likes of Tyrrell Hatton ($9,200), Tommy Fleetwood ($9,000), and Matthew Fitzpatrick (9,500). I've talked about how a non-American has won this event 11 times since 2002 because of the sheer importance of scrambling and three-putt avoidance. Those are two areas where the English trio has generated top-15 expectation grades for the week.

My model only had one top-20 golfer in the field rank better when comparing a proper price tag versus their current ownership projection than Fleetwood and Hatton (we will get to that golfer soon), which generated this value outlook that pushed those two men into borderline overweight locks if the numbers hold steady.

Fitzpatrick will need a little more help to enter the same range of becoming a fixture to all builds. However, if there is a potential situation occurring where he is accurately priced on DraftKings and is generating one of the more substantial deviations on the slate because of his inferior popularity return, I will take a chance that Fitzpatrick's probable leverage can create an advantageous game theory route for us in Hawaii. We will need those divergences in our build when dealing with only 59 players.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Decisions will need to be made for Jordan Spieth ($8,800), Ludvig Aberg ($8,700), Rickie Fowler ($8,600), Sam Burns ($8,200), and Sungjae Im ($8,100).

My data liked all of those names and could find varying reasons each was roster-worthy, but this isn't one of those spots where "new year, new me" is going to come into play. Let's be honest. Those resolutions rarely make it. I don't expect anyone to be shocked who reads my articles weekly that Jason Day ($8,500) is a recommended play since I may be his biggest supporter in the golf space outside of his family, although it was highly encouraging how the 36-year-old placed as the most significant outlier of all top-20 golfers when comparing their fair price versus projected ownership.

I don't know if Day will ultimately become the seventh Australian winner of this event since 2004, but it is that mix of Day, Fleetwood, Hatton, and Fitzpatrick where I found most of my betting intrigue outside of constructing a one-person card in Scottie Scheffler.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

The numbers for me are pretty straightforward here in the $7,000s. Anyone listed between Sahith Theegala ($7,600) and Lucas Glover ($7,500) in that second image will likely not make my final player pool. I don't hate Kurt Kitayama ($7,400) if we are looking to throw a complete dart on a 1-3% owned golfer. However, most of my interest will land amongst the names in the opening image of Eric Cole ($7,400), J.T. Poston ($7,200), Corey Conners ($7,500), and Justin Rose ($7,600).

It just will come down to finding high-end potential in multiple areas for how we want to add from this section because there is no point in playing for safety in a no-cut tournament when we need top-10 potential. I will say that Cole was the elite producer in expectation from that list because of his four top-four finishes in five events to end 2023, but I will find myself mixing and matching each of Rose, Conners, Cole, and Poston into various builds. 

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

Let's rapid-fire through a handful of these names.

Brendon Todd ($6,900) - Brendon Todd gets Paul Tesori on his bag for Kapalua after Tesori and Cameron Young split at the end of 2023. Additional knowledge of the course should benefit a golfer who finished 13th here in 2021. My model believed Todd was the best golfer in this range.

Chris Kirk ($6,800) - With the increase all players receive from within 150 yards on their approach shots, Chris Kirk's top-12 grades within every 25-yard bucket from 0-150 yards should help add to his third-place three-putt avoidance percentage. 

Seamus Power ($6,300) - The hope would be that Seamus Power's time off has helped him return to his early-season form of 2023. Power's potential to score on these wide-open and easy tests has always been pronounced, something we see when looking into his multiple top-10 grades for strokes gained total on soft greens and similar courses.

Taylor Moore ($6,700) - Taylor Moore is a quality Bermuda putter who has the opportunity to spike with his long-iron play. If he can produce birdie chances on the par-five locations, there is potential for a quality finish.

Mackenzie Hughes ($6,400) - The reduction in overall approach importance could help one of the best short-game players in this field. Consider Hughes the cheap version of how Matthew Fitzpatrick has found success at Kapalua in the past.

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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

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