RADIO
The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on May 15, 2023. Casey Wilson's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Monday, everyone. I hope you had a great weekend filled with baseball. We welcome the work week back with a ten-game slate. Today's slate has some top-end pitching options in tough matchups. There also isn't much value at pitching, making pitching less of a priority tonight than usual. Sure, we can get a ceiling game out of someone tonight, but I don't think there is a priority on the mound tonight.
Bats are the priority tonight, as there are genuinely four stacks I could rank as my top options. I will mix and match them in three entry-max lineups with my pitching options. Tonight is a slate where I may build my stack first and fit whatever pitching fits after that. When I build, I usually start with my SP1, build my main stack, and go from there. Tonight will be different as some offenses are in some smash spots.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 5/15/2023 and the slate locking at 7:07 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Merrill Kelly, ARZ at OAK ($8,800 DK, $9,700 FD)
Merrill Kelly and the Arizona Diamondbacks travel to the Coliseum to face the Oakland Athletics tonight. I expect Kelly to get some ownership here, as he seems like the safest option on the board tonight. Framber Valdez is expensive facing the Cubs at home. Pablo Lopez is on the road against the Dodgers. Freddy Peralta is on the road against the Cardinals. I like all three of those arms tonight, but if deciding on my SP1 in cash, I will take the discount in Kelly in a great matchup.
Kelly is 3-1 with a 4.25 SIERA, 25.6% K, 11.1 % BB, and 11.0% SwStr. None of these numbers jump off the page, but Kelly has been the model of consistency this season. He has scored 17.9 DraftKings points or more in four of his last six starts. The Oakland A's lead baseball with a 25.6% K against right-hand pitching this year. They also have a 92 wRC+, .298 wOBA, and .367 SLG, all below average in MLB ranks. I don't know if I will play Kelly in tournaments as I don't know if the upside is entirely there, but he is where I'm starting my lineups in cash.
Framber Valdez, HOU vs. CHC ($10,700 DK, $10,700 FD)
Of all the studs on today's slate, I expect Valdez to get the most ownership. This is entirely justified because of how good he has been. Valdez enters todays start with a 3-4 record, 2.80 SIERA, 27.1% K, 4.8% BB, 11.4% SwStr. Valdez has been one of the best ground ball pitchers over recent years, and this season is the same story. He has a 62.6% GB in 2023. It is hard to string together big innings against him because of the K% and GB%.
The Cubs aren't exactly a cakewalk of a matchup. They own a 24.2% K against left-hand pitching. Valdez does have some K upside in this matchup. What worries me here is the Cubs have a 120 wRC+, .350 wOBA, and a .463 SLG. These numbers are scary to me as they have swung it pretty well against lefties this season. The reason I like Valdez here is because Lopez and Peralta are in very similar spots with the matchups they have. I'll side with the talent and ground balls of Valdez when paying up.
Hunter Greene, CIN @ COL ($8,300 DK, $8,800 FD)
Talk about a true boom or bust spot here today. Hunter Greene will get the rock in Coors Field, making him an ultimate tournament play for tonight's slate. Greene has an 0-3 record with a 3.75 SIERA, 29.0% K, 9.1% BB, and a 14.8% SwStr. His strikeout upside gives him the ceiling we want in tournaments, and at Coors Field, he should almost have no ownership. I love taking chances on arms with a massive ceiling when they are low-owned. He has the upside to break a slate at low ownership.
The Rockies own a 23.0% K, 81 wRC+, .313 wOBA, and a .394 SLG against right-hand pitching. When factoring that they play half their games at Coors Field, this matchup is elite. Interestingly, while sorting by home and away, these numbers don't change much for the Rockies as you would expect. They have a 21.7% K, 84 wRC+, .340 wOBA, and a .441 SLG at home. This spot is attackable, and at next to no ownership, I'm willing to have some shares hoping we hit a ceiling game out of Greene.
Also consider: Freddy Peralta, Michael Wacha, Pablo Lopez
Want more MLB DFS tools and content? Our MLB Premium package includes our daily DFS Cheat Sheets, Research Station, Optimizer, and access to our Premium Discord Chatrooms, where members can chat with our MLB analysts. Check out this recent big win from RotoBaller's Jon Anderson on DraftKings - join in on the winning!
🍾 BOOM!! A huge congrats to Jon, winning a juicy $50k last night!
Be sure to read his premium MLB #DFS articles 3x a week, all his other excellent analysis, and give a follow @JonPgh - all very much worth it 👌
Win Big With #RotoBaller ➡️ https://t.co/1uotAV6253 https://t.co/ipSgrl5dOr
— RotoBaller (@RotoBaller) May 10, 2022
DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 1B, TOR vs. Jhony Brito ($5,800 DK, $3,800 FD)
Vlad will face Brito here tonight at home. Brito has shown severe reverse splits this year in the big leagues. He has a 1.74 HR/9 and a 5.36 SIERA. Against right-handed hitters, he has a .399 wOBA, .338 ISO, 40.0% hard hit, and a 36.4% FB. Vlad has hit right-hand pitching his whole career, and 2023 is no exception. He has a .390 wOBA, .261 ISO, and a 49.0% hard hit against right-hand pitching this season. Brito is also a big-time sinker ball pitcher, and Vlad smashes sinkers to a .454 wOBA and a .219 ISO.
J.P. Crawford - SS, SEA vs. Tanner Houck ($2,900 DK, $2,800 FD)
J.P. Crawford is the new Mariners' leadoff hitter and should immediately increase his fantasy production. He faces Tanner Houck today with a 4.39 SIERA, 20.6% K, 8.8% BB, and 0.96 HR/9. He has surrendered a .354 wOBA, .216 ISO, and a 35.6% hard hit to lefties this season. Crawford has a .363 wOBA this season and a .402 wOBA over the last 30 days against right-hand pitching. The intriguing thing here is his price has not caught up to his new role, and if he continues to hit lead off this is the cheapest we will get him.
Sean Murphy - C, ATL vs. Cole Ragans ($5,000 DK, $4,200 FD)
How good has Sean Murphy been this year? Murphy will face a lefty here in Cole Ragans, and he is what we call a lefty masher. Murphy has a .456 wOBA, .333 ISO, and a 55.2% hard hit against lefties this season. Over the last 30 days, he has had a .483 wOBA, .414 ISO, and a 63.6% hard hit against lefties. Those numbers are so ridiculous. Getting this much upside at a catcher position is enormous. I love Sean Murphy tonight.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Corbin Carroll - OF, ARZ vs. Drew Rucinski ($5,200 DK, $3,300 FD)
Corbin Carroll faces Drew Rucinski and an awful Oakland bullpen. Rucinski leads the slate with a 1.88 HR/9 and has a 6.56 SIERA. He has been getting crushed by lefties this season to a .564 wOBA, .300 ISO, and a 35.3% hard hit. Carroll has a .384 wOBA, .261 ISO, and a 41.3% hard hit against righties this year. It's even better over the last 30 days with a .443 wOBA, .296 ISO, and a 33.3% hard hit. We all know his speed, as Carroll has already stolen ten bases this season, so there is even more upside here for Carroll.
Dominic Fletcher - OF, ARZ vs. Drew Rucinski ($2,400 DK, $2,800 FD)
We will stay in the same game with Dominic Fletcher to find value. Fletcher gets the same matchup with the splits of Rucinski and an awful A's bullpen. Fletcher has a .594 wOBA, .296 ISO, and a 53.8% hard hit this season. He is raking right-hand pitching, and his entirely too cheap in this matchup on DraftKings.
Juan Soto - OF, SD vs. Brad Keller ($5,300 DK, $3,500 FD)
Juan Soto will face Brad Keller tonight at home. I don't love this park, so I usually try to avoid it, but as a one-off, Soto is an excellent play tonight. Keller has a 6.18 SIERA, 16.3% K, 18.0% BB, and only a 0.68 HR/9. He has always had trouble against lefties, and Soto is the best left-handed bat in this Padres lineup. Soto has a .449 wOBA, .301 ISO, and a 47.9% hard hit against right-handed batters this season. You can full-stack the Padres because of Keller's walk rate, but I like Soto more as a one-off tonight.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Drew Rucinski
The first obvious choice for a stack here is the Arizona Diamondbacks facing Drew Rucinski and the A's bullpen. Rucinski is 0-3 with a 6.56 SIERA, 8.2% K, and a 12.3% BB. He leads today's slate with a 1.88 HR/9. When we have a walk rate and home run rate this high, you can see why it immediately becomes a great spot to stack. Oakland's bullpen has been the worst in baseball, surrendering a 5.38 SIERA and a 1.49 HR/9. They have given up 138 runs so far this season. The next closest is the Chicago White Sox at 106.
Rucinski is more prone to getting hit by left-handed bats but can be attacked by either handiness. Against lefties this season, he has a .564 wOBA, .300 ISO, 35.3% hard hit, and a 35.3% FB. Against righties, he has a .304 wOBA, .167 ISO, 37.5% hard hit, and 27.5% FB. You can immediately see the difference in handiness, but with how lousy the A's bullpen is, I don't want to leave right-handed bats out of stacks. Arizona is sixth in baseball with a 112 wRC+ against right-hand pitching this season. They are fourth with a .339 wOBA and fight with a .446 SLG. I love this spot for the Diamondbacks today, but I expect them to be chalky. Differentiate in stacks or the rest of your lineup when playing them.
Favorite Plays: Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Dominic Fletcher, Lourdes Gurriel, Christian Walker, Pavin Smith
2. Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jhony Brito
The Blue Jays host the Yankees for a division battle starting today. The Yankees send Jhony Brito to the mound tonight. Brito has a 2-3 record with a 5.36 SIERA, 15.9% K, and a 10.1% BB. Brito has a 1.74 HR/9, the second worst on today's slate behind Rucinski. Brito allows many base runners and gets hit for power making him a perfect stack against candidate.
Brito has shown reverse splits this season which plays to the best bats in this Blue Jays lineup. Brito has a .399 wOBA, .338 ISO, 40.0% hard hit, and a 36.4% FB against right-handed bats this season. The Blue Jays have a 109 wRC+, .329 wOBA, and a .417 SLG as a team against right-hand pitching this season. When you factor in Brito splits and the strengths of this Blue Jays lineup being right-handed, we have a smash spot for the Blue Jays. Full disclosure this lineup is costly on DraftKings; you'll have to find some salary relief elsewhere.
Favorite Plays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman, Alejandro Kirk, Daulton Varsho
Also Consider:
3. Atlanta Braves vs. Cole Ragans
4. Cincinnati Reds vs. Connor Seabold
DraftKings and FanDuel Cores
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!
