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As we approach the college football season, RotoBaller will be your one-stop shop for everything college football DFS and college football betting related.
As opportunities to play daily fantasy sports and season-long fantasy expand, we will investigate some of the breakout candidates to keep an eye on for your fantasy leagues to keep you ahead of the competition.
While many of the big names in college football, like Spencer Rattler, Breece Hall, and Kedon Slovis, are household names by now, the real money can be made by knowing the next big breakout star. In this article, we take a look at some of the top offensive breakout candidates at each position to prepare you for the 2021 college football DFS season.
Quarterbacks
Coming to Western Kentucky from the small, private Houston Baptist program of the FCS level, you'd be forgiven if you've never heard of Bailey Zappe. Playing an abbreviated four-game fall schedule in 2020, Zappe excelled against three FBS opponents, and nearly led the Huskies to an upset over Texas Tech. In four games, Zappe threw for 1,833 yards (458 yds/game), and had 15 touchdowns with only one interception. The gunslinger from Victoria, Texas, has three years of starting experience and has been the starter for the Huskies and one of the top FCS quarterbacks since he stepped on Houston Baptist's small 2,111 undergraduate-enrolled campus in 2018. Taking a step up to the Conference USA level of competition will be a challenging test, but Zappe will have familiar faces in his offensive coordinator and three top wide receivers who all joined the transfer caravan to Western Kentucky this offseason.
Graham Mertz is the highest ranked Wisconsin quarterback recruit of all-time, and he has the full grasp on the starter's role after Jack Coan transferred to Notre Dame this summer. The Mission, Kansas, native was the 3rd ranked pro-style quarterback in the class of 2019, and finally got his chance to shine in last year's pandemic-altered season. Mertz showed flashes of excellence at times, including completing 20 of 21 passes for five touchdowns in his debut game against Illinois, but also showed very low performances such as a three interceptions in a loss at Northwestern. As the season progressed, coach Paul Chryst gravitated the team back towards a run-oriented offense taking some pressure off Mertz to rebuild his confidence. With a bowl game win over Wake Forest and the full confidence of the coaching staff, Mertz has excelled in fall camp and is the unquestioned starter in Madison. The only question for his fantasy value will be whether or not coach Chryst takes the training wheels off and opens up the passing attack or keeps the traditional rushing-oriented offense in place.
Replacing a top-tier quarterback like Kyle Trask is never an easy task, but all early reports out of Gainesville are glowing about Emory Jones. The junior dual-threat quarterback is finally getting his first chance at starting and the expectations are high. In limited action over the past three seasons, Jones has thrown for seven touchdowns and only one interceptions, while also proving proficient with his legs, averaging 5.6 yards per carry and gaining six touchdowns on the ground. If you were looking for an area of concern to damper Jones' fantasy expectations in 2021, it would be his receiving corps which is in the midst of a mini-rebuild having to replace the dominant trio of Kyle Pitts, Kadarius Toney and Trevon Grimes, who combined for 31 touchdown receptions last year.
Running Backs
Coastal Carolina was dubbed "America's Team" by many fans in 2020, and it is easy to see why they have a solid chance of replicating last year's success. Despite leading rusher and team captain CJ Marable departing for the NFL, his replacements Reese White and Shemari Jones appear to be fully capable of handling an increased workload. All early indications from camp are that White will take the lion's share of the carries in 2021 for coach Jamey Chadwell's Chanticleers. Marable rarely left the field last season, garnering 200 total touches and 19 touchdowns from scrimmage. In limited time as the #2 running back, White did manage 6 scores and averaged 5.4 yards per carry. The 5-foot-10 junior from Sandy Springs, Georgia, is a potential star to keep an eye on if he can secure his position atop the depth chart for a team that is likely to be in contention for a January 1 bowl game once again.
A successful Sun Belt team loses its star running back(s), but has a capable replacement ready to step in for an increased workload. Forgive me if you've already heard this story in the previous paragraph, but Louisiana's Chris Smith is primed for a breakout season. Playing behind star running backs Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas limited Smith's opportunities, but he took advantage of his limited chances for coach Billy Napier's team and carved out a role as an effective pass-catcher. Mitchell and Ragas combined for 272 carries, 1,636 yards, and 20 touchdowns last year to cap off stellar careers in Lafayette. The 5-foot-9 Smith, who had two kick return touchdowns in 2020, is the obvious replacement and will be running behind an offensive line that returns a combined 107 starts and over 7,200 snaps combined. Add to the offensive mix that southpaw quarterback Levi Lewis is 24-4 as a starter, and you get a very accomplished and deep Ragin Cajuns team that is hoping Smith can effectively step into the void left by Mitchell and Ragas.
Larry Rountree III had a prolific four-year run with the Missouri Tigers, racking up 3,720 yards and 40 touchdowns, but moved on as a sixth-round draft pick by the Los Angeles Chargers. The 5-foot-9 senior Tyler Badie looks likely to be the top beneficiary of Rountree's graduation. Badie got 48 carries as the top backup in 2020, and has scored 16 touchdowns in his career. Badie excels in the passing game, which is expected to be the key for Missouri in 2021 behind Connor Bazelak, who had a nice breakout 2020 campaign. Even if Badie ends up in a timeshare for carries, his abilities as a receiver liken him to an Austin Ekeler-type floor of fantasy potential, with a guarantee that he doesn't have to leave the field on any particular down.
Wide Receivers
When you have a Heisman-caliber quarterback like Sam Howell throwing to you, you can rest assured that opportunities will be aplenty. Replacing the duo of Dazz Newsome and Dyami Brown at receiver (as well as star running backs Michael Carter and Javonte Williams' combined 50 receptions) is a task that will be handed to a young triumvirate of wide receivers. Atop that list is Josh Downs, alongside Khafre Brown and Emery Simmons. Downs, who had seven receptions and three touchdowns in only four games last year, is receiving a lot of hype from head coach Mack Brown, who has said that he is very impressed with his work in camp. The former four-star receiver from Suwanee, Georgia, should have tons of opportunities on an offense that doesn't seem to have a lead running back and has a Heisman candidate at receiver. Keep a close eye on his fellow receivers Khafre Brown and Emery Simmons, but the early breakout candidate signals all seem to be pointing towards Downs.
When Wan'Dale Robinson originally committed to play for Scott Frost and Nebraska in 2019, the consensus top-100 recruit was widely expected to make an early impact. Playing in ten games as a freshman, Robinson did just that with 40 receptions, 88 carries out of the backfield, and five touchdowns. In a forgettable 2020 season, however, Robinson faded to the background with his carries cut in half, despite higher efficiency numbers, and only caught one touchdown pass. Robinson transferred to Kentucky in the offseason, hoping to breath new life into his career and he may get it under coach Mark Stoops. Leading receiver Josh Ali returns for the Wildcats, but Robinson can provide a strong compliment out of the slot as a "gadget" player able to take hand-offs and jet sweeps in addition to his role as a leading receiver. With the potential season-ending injury for tight end Keaton Upshaw, there will be more receptions available for Robinson to catch from Penn State transfer quarterback Will Levis, who was recently named the starter. Kentucky usually has a run-oriented offense, but Robinson will be able to get touches either way due to his versatility as both a runner and as a pass-catcher.
In a brief fall season, quarterback Dustin Crum and the Kent State Golden Flashes startled the country by scoring 49.8 points per game. Crum is back on campus, but his star receiver Isaiah McKoy moved on to the Pittsburgh Steelers, leaving a void. Syracuse transfer Nykeim Johnson is likely to start, but the biggest beneficiary of McKoy's departure should be Ja'Shaun Poke. Poke, a junior from Hampton, Georgia, caught 21 catches and three touchdowns in the limited season, and looks like Crum's top target in fall camp. Poke also has experience as a kick returner and is a former high school track star. While Kent State's defense leaves much to be desired, the offense returns most of its firepower and all five offensive linemen, which should keep Poke busy on the outside as long as Crum can keep up his proficiency that's been displayed over the past two seasons as a starter.
Tight Ends
When coach Craig Bohl came to Laramie, Wyoming, in 2014 the team had only three bowl game appearance in the past 20 seasons. The former North Dakota State coach instantly turned the program around with the help of current Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Now, the Cowboys find themselves in the midst of a potentially competitive Mountain West conference with Boise State looking at a possible down year. Enter Treyton Welch. Welch started five games in the six-game abbreviated fall season, and caught only 5 passes for 95 yards, while primarily serving as a key blocker for running back Xazavian Valladay. In spring camp, however, Welch excelled and took the top spot on the depth chart by way of his receiving acumen. In high school, Welch excelled as a wide receiver for Buffalo High School, in Minnesota, and found himself as the school's second-leading receiver of all time just ahead of former Arizona Cardinals and Pitt Panthers star Larry Fitzgerald. With new offensive coordinator Tim Polasek at the helm, the expectation is that the tight end position will be featured heavily in his offense, so keep an eye on Welch.
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