College Football Betting Expert Picks for Week Fourteen (12/5/2020)

December 3, 2020

Our CFB betting picks, analysis and top recommendations for Week 14. Every week, Nick reviews some of the best bets and wagers for the college football slate.

The undefeated streak finally came to a close, with a 2-2 week in Week Thirteen. Due to cancellations, postponements, and delayed starts, the college football season will trudge onward well into the month of December.

In Friday's matchup, Liberty kept UMass scoreless, preserving an easy under. Clemson came back with a vengeance one week after having their game against Florida State cancelled, with a dominant 52-17 victory over Pitt, crushing the over nearly singlehandedly. In the night game, South Carolina did not appear up to the task and could not cover a large spread as the underdog. The 2-2 week brings the overall season record to 26-10.

As we approach conference championships in a few weeks, here are some betting picks to follow along with as you enjoy another college football Saturday.

Syracuse at Notre Dame (-33.5)

O/U: 51.5

The 2020 season has been one to forget for Syracuse. The Orange are likely on their way to a 1-10 record and a last place finish in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC). The quarterback position has been a revolving door between freshman Jacobian Morgan and senior Rex Culpepper taking over for the ineffective junior Tommy DeVito. In the Orange's 7-point loss versus NC State last week, the team started 6 freshmen, marking a program record. The offense finally broke out of a rut last week to score 29 points, but Culpepper wasted away their final chance when he spiked the ball on fourth down - a perfect embodiment of this season for Syracuse football.

In their first, and only, season as members of the ACC, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have cruised to a perfect 9-0 record. Coach Brian Kelly's team has dominated along the way, with double digit victories in 7 of those 9 wins, and covering the spread in 3 of their past 4 games. Senior quarterback Ian Book is the undisputed leader of this team, and his ability to extend plays with his legs has made for a flurry of highlight reels in South Bend. In recent weeks, the Irish have leaned heavily on their trio of talented running backs - sophomore Kyren Williams, freshman Chris Tyree and junior C'Bo Flemister - to cement games as they hope to survive and advance their way to the College Football Playoff. Notre Dame will be missing two key offensive linemen in center Jarrett Patterson and guard Tommy Kraemer, both due to injuries. In their stead though, sophomore Zeke Correll and senior Josh Lugg have hardly missed a beat.

With such a heavy reliance on the running game, Notre Dame has only won two games by over 30 points this season. Style points really won't play much of a factor, as all the Irish need to do is keep winning and they'll be in the playoff. For Syracuse, Coach Dino Babers and his young team will surely want to end the season on a positive note and put up a spirited effort. One interesting note, this will mark the latest date in the year that that either of these teams have played a regular season game since 2003, when the two teams faced off against each other on December 6.

Pick: Syracuse +33.5

Buffalo at Ohio (+11.5)

O/U: 58.5

The statistical performance of Buffalo running back Jarret Patterson is mind-boggling in the Bulls' 4-0 start. In his last two games, Patterson ran for 710 yards and 12 touchdowns, becoming only the 2nd player in NCAA history to record 400 yards and 8 touchdowns in a game (Ricky Williams was the other). While Patterson has churned his way to long touchdown runs, quarterback Kyle Vantrease has become a more efficient quarterback with only 1 interception this season. Coach Lance Leipold has built a juggernaut program in the mold of his run at Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he won 6 NCAA Division III Championships in his 8 seasons in charge. Buffalo is averaging 50.8 points per game on offense this season, a staggering figure . On defense, fans will want to keep their eyes on linebacker James Patterson, who is the team's leading tackler and the star running back's twin brother, and defensive end Malcolm Koonce, the team's best pass rusher and a likely future NFL player.

Frank Solich is in his 16th season at the helm in Athens, Ohio, and is still one of the more underappreciated coaches in the country, as evidenced by only winning MAC Coach of the Year one time. Entering 2020 having to replace quarterback Nathan Rourke, Solich turned to Rourke's younger brother Kurtis, a redshirt freshman from Canada. Rourke and UNLV grad transfer Armani Rogers have formed a dangerous passing/running combination that forces defenses to stay on their toes, combining for 4 touchdowns through the air and 2 on the ground in Ohio's 2-1 start. The Bobcats' spread offense exploded over Thanksgiving weekend for a 52-10 victory over Bowling Green, showing just what this offense is capable of.

Against MAC competition, there is little doubt that Jarret Patterson will get his healthy share of yards, as will his talented backup Kevin Marks. For Ohio to have a fighting chance in this game, they will need their offense to keep pace with one of the quickest pace-of-play teams in the country. Buffalo's defense is also susceptible to the big play, evidenced by the 41 points surrendered to Kent State a week ago.

Pick: Over 58.5

Rice at Marshall (-23.5)

O/U: 44.5

The Rice Owls football program has been in a rut, without a winning season since 2014. Coach Mike Bloomgren's abysmal 6-22 record gives him the worst winning percentage by a Rice head coach since the 1970s, where winning 1 game per season was the norm. The offensive line is a concern, with 3 underclassmen starting, and a host of freshmen and sophomores littered across the two-deep depth chart. The Owls are not bereft of any stars, however, as senior linebacker and team captain Blaze Alldredge was a 1st-team All-Conference USA player in 2019, and is on pace to be the team's leading tackler once again and is not only known for his impressive hair.

Doc Holliday is in the middle of his 11th year in charge of the Marshall Thundering Herd, and it looks like this is the best team he's ever fielded. Coach Holliday's team is ranked 15th in the country, a ranking that's only been beaten once in program history - the 1999 team that fielded future NFL first round quarterbacks Chad Pennington and Byron Leftwich. The undefeated pride of Huntington, West Virginia, should feel disrespected having cruised to an 7-0 start, with no margin of victory under 10 points, but little recognition in the rankings. While the schedule does not afford many marquee games, star running back Brendan Knox has made the most of his chances, and freshman quarterback Grant Wells is a star in the making. Marshall should have every reason to want to come out firing, to express the disappointment in the respect that they've received from national prognosticators.

Marshall's 7-0 start has brought with it an average margin of victory of over 28 points, and a marquee win over Appalachian State in non-conference play. They've done the most that they can with what little opportunities they've been given, and are now doing what they can to solidify a strong bowl game berth. For Rice, considering the string of bowl game cancellations, and their own cancellations of 3 out of 6 scheduled games so far this season, they'll likely be hoping for the 2020 season to die a quick and painless death, with two likely blowout losses this week and next week versus UAB on the docket.

Pick: Marshall -23.5

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