College Football Betting Expert Picks for Week Fifteen (12/12/2020)

December 10, 2020

Our CFB betting picks, analysis and top recommendations for Week 15. Every week, Nick reviews some of the best bets and wagers for the college football slate.

Yet again, the COVID-19 pandemic struck down one of our matchups last week. Buffalo was halfway down the highway on their way to Athens, Ohio, before Coach Frank Solich called the Bulls to call off the game. Nevertheless, Week Fourteen was a good one for us.

Syracuse was able to easily cover the 33.5-point spread in part due to a few second half touchdowns. Marshall, on the other hand, put up a dismal performance as quarterback Grant Wells threw a staggering five (5!!!) interceptions in an embarrassing home loss to Rice. My twitter followers (@fredetterline) got a bonus pick with the Clemson-Virginia Tech game, as the Tigers put things on cruise control with a 35-point win in which they did not play very well. The 2-1 pick, with the addition of Clemson replacing Buffalo-Ohio on the slate, brings the season-long record to 28-11.

As we enter the final week of the College Football regular season, here are some betting picks to follow along with as you enjoy another college football Saturday.

Illinois at #15 Northwestern (-14.5)

O/U: 40.5

Coach Lovie Smith is still kicking in the state of Illinois, having traded in the Bears and former quarterback Rex Grossman for the Fighting Illini and quarterback Brandon Peters. The Illini have won two of their last three games, but looked lifeless at times this season when Peters was absent due to COVID-19. The defense has keyed what limited success they've had this year, with three or more interceptions in their two road wins over Rutgers and Nebraska. Senior linebacker Jake Hansen, the only 2019 Butkus Award semifinalist to return to college football this season, is a steady hand, ranking with the 10th best tackling grade in the country by Pro Football Focus having only two missed tackles.

This may be as close to a "look-ahead" game as it will get this week. After seeing the Big Ten bend and break, amending its preseason rules to allow Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game despite not playing the agreed-upon 6 minimum games, Northwestern knows its opponent for next week already. The Wildcats are somewhat punished and will have to play a 5-0 Ohio State team, who is getting a free bye week due to Michigan's COVID-19 breakout on campus. Coach Pat Fitzgerald's team has a strong 5-1 record, both straight-up and against-the-spread. The defense has been the calling card, as usual, allowing only 15 points per game, including a shocking 17-7 win over Wisconsin.

The prestigious "Land of Lincoln" trophy has been dominated in recent years by Northwestern. Illinois has not beaten Northwestern since 2014, and looks unlikely to change that streak this year. The question becomes how motivated will the Wildcats be, and will they be resting some players down the stretch in what is essentially a meaningless game. Expect a spirited Illinois team with nothing to lose in their last game of the year to do everything they can to keep the margin of loss in single digits against a solid Northwestern team.

Pick: Illinois +14.5

Central Michigan at Toledo (-11.5)

O/U: 52.5

Central Michigan announced this week that Sam Houston State transfer quarterback Ty Brock would be getting the start for the Chippewas' final game of  the year. Daniel Richardson, the starter for the first four games this season at quarterback, has struggled to come back from injury and is unlikely to play due to unavailability at practice. The team has failed to play much defense this year, but the offense has been good at times. Unfortunately for Coach Jim McElwain, the Chippewas will be playing without three of their opening day starting offensive linemen, and its possible that the team might have to turn to a wildcat quarterback like running back Kobe Lewis, should Brock falter.

During Toledo's 9-game win streak from 2010 to 2018 against Central Michigan, the games were only decided by single digits once. Coach Jason Candle has built a top-tier MAC program, and his typical offensive juggernaut has shown its signs at times. Scoring 37.2 points per game, sophomore quarterback Carter Bradley is blessed with a plethora of weapons at his disposal. Running back Bryant Koback is a steady third-year starter, and six different receivers have caught a touchdown pass this year.

Toledo has been hot-and-cold this year, but has recruited better and built more depth than their counterparts from Mount Pleasant, Michigan. Before last year's surprising Chippewas blowout win, the Rockets had won 9 games in a row. The one conclusion for 2020 and both of these teams, is that the 6-game MAC season was far too short and we should be eager to look forward to a full MAC slate - with Tuesday and Wednesday night games galore - as soon as next year.

Pick: Toledo first half -6

Navy at Army (-7)

O/U: 38.5

On the surface, Navy's 3-6 record is underwhelming. Coach Ken Niumatalolo, in his 13th year at the helm, is an impressive 9-3 against Army, including last year's 31-7 drubbing of the Black Knights. The Midshipmen have lost four in a row, but do hold three conference wins this year (Tulane, Temple, and East Carolina). The offense has been the problem, scoring only 18.4 points per game, and struggling to gain yardage, with under 300 yards gained per year. The loss of quarterback Malcolm Perry (7th round draft pick of the Miami Dolphins as a wide receiver) has stung and eliminated what little prospect of a passing game the Midshipmen had. On defense, linebacker Diego Fagot is a gamebreaker with 9 tackles for loss and will surely make his mark on the game.

This Saturday's game will be the first rendition of the Army-Navy game to be played at a home campus site since 1943, which was also played at West Point, due to World War II. Army has surprisingly never beaten Navy at West Point (0-3), but is 7-2 on the season and hopes to reverse that misfortune. The 7-2 record, however, should feel somewhat hollow with three wins over FCS teams, and another win over Louisiana-Monroe, who should be considered FCS-quality at this point. The only common opponent for these teams, Tulane, resulted in a 26-point loss for Army, and a 3-point win for Navy.

In games between service academies since 2005, the under has hit 36 of 46 times, and there have been under 40 points scored in each of the last six renditions of the Army-Navy game. When ignoring Air Force entirely, Army-Navy games have gone under in a staggering 14 of the last 15 games, often with totals set in the high 30s and low 40s. Navy and Army rank 124th and 127th out of the 127 Division I FBS teams playing this fall in passing-play percentage, and the run games have been successful but also clock-churning for years. Even at the second-lowest total posted for the 2020 season (Western Kentucky @ Florida Atlantic was set at 37.5), there may be some value in getting it now before it goes down any further.

Pick: Navy +7 / Under 38.5

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