Champ or Chump: Alec Bohm

Rick Lucks takes a deep look into the value of top infield prospect Alec Bohm in fantasy baseball redraft leagues for 2020. Will he be a difference-maker as soon as this season?

In this strange season where the Miami Marlins and Detroit Tigers look like plausible contenders, the teams that thought they should contend before the world turned upside down don't have the time to dilly dally. The Philadelphia Phillies have responded to this sense of urgency by summoning top prospect Alec Bohm from their alternate training site, hoping to spark a team that hasn't performed up to expectations thus far.

The 24-year-old Bohm carries a substantial prospect pedigree into his big league debut, being taken third overall in the 2018 Amateur Draft and ranking as the 30th best prospect in the game according to MLB Pipeline. He got his first hit out of the way early on as well, notching a double against the Orioles on Thursday evening. Fantasy owners have to be wondering what he might be able to do the rest of the way.

A closer look at Bohm's scouting reports and MiLB resume reveals that he will probably be able to help fantasy teams this year, but not in the way that many owners might expect. Keep reading to find out exactly what that means.

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What Scouts See

Bohm's scouting reports include a lot of the platitudes that you see for well-regarded prospects, including the ones posted on Baseball Savant. He has "strength" and "excellent bat speed," allowing him to "hit the ball with authority to all fields." He also possesses "excellent strike zone control" with a "strong work ethic," and impressively hit his way to Double-A in 2019 after starting in A-ball.

The important thing to remember is that those platitudes are concerned primarily with Bohm's future, not his immediate impact in 2020. For that, it is best to turn to scouting grades. Here is what FanGraphs says about him in their most recent prospects report:

Many fantasy circles speak of Bohm as a big power prospect, but these grades don't reflect that. His hit tool is already MLB-average with room for growth in the future, but his above-average raw power is masked by an inability to fully access it in games. The low fielding grade also suggests that Bohm may not stick at third base long-term, and he already has MiLB reps at 1B that could give him positional flexibility in our game.

It's best to consult multiple sources of scouting information to eliminate any bias, so here are Baseball Savant's 2019 grades:

These grades are more optimistic with above-average hit and power tools, but don't quite match the ceiling that the FanGraphs grades suggest. This author is inclined to favor the FanGraphs grades because they align well with the Bohm's performance on the farm last season.

Bohm's 2019 in Review

While Bohm made his professional debut in 2018, a left shin contusion caused by a HBP prevented him from getting things going until last year. He began the campaign at Single-A (Lakewood), slashing .367/.441/.595 with three homers and three steals across 93 PAs. It's admittedly a tiny sample with a .406 BABIP, but it is encouraging that he commanded the zone with a 12.9 BB% against a 15.1 K%. His 7.6 SwStr% was also encouragingly low for a bat capable of plus raw power. The Phillies agreed, quickly promoting him to Hi-A (Clearwater).

Bohm was more than up to the task, slashing an impressive .329/.395/.506 with four homers and a steal over 177 PAs. Again, his 9.6 BB% nearly equaled his 11.9 K%, suggesting an advanced approach at the plate. His 8.2 SwStr% represented a slight uptick from his work at his previous level but was still excellent. Interestingly, Bohm's 26.9 LD% at Lakewood was more than cut in half to 13.4% at Clearwater, but that's probably just small sample noise.

The performance earned Bohm a shot at Double-A (Reading), where he hit .269/.344/.500 with 14 long balls and two steals in 270 PAs. The lower average was the result of a .265 BABIP that likely isn't reflective of his true talent level, and both his 10.4 BB% and 14.1 K% were still impressive. His LD% rebounded somewhat to 18.1%, while his SwStr% improved to 7.3%. Bohm displayed strong batting average and OBP skills at all three levels he visited last season.

His 17.3% HR/FB was also considerably higher than his work at Lakewood (11.5%) or Clearwater (7.5%), but that's likely more a product of his environment than anything else. Reading is one of the most power-friendly environments in professional baseball, with a 1.365 HR factor that ranked in the 77th percentile of the entire MiLB landscape even though baseballs flew out of Triple-A parks like never before. The park's 0.996 park factor for BABIP ranked in the 17th percentile league-wide, potentially explaining Bohm's lower average as well.

In contrast, Clearwater's 1.044 HR factor only ranked in the 57th percentile, making it much fairer. Lakewood is where offense goes to die, as both its 0.735 HR factor and 0.962 BABIP factor ranked in the 4th percentile MiLB-wide. Bohm's FB% hovered around 40% at all three levels, so it looks like his power spike had more to do with Reading being a bandbox than any newfound ability to access raw power in games.

Parting Thoughts

Bohm's excellent plate discipline skills should prevent him from being overwhelmed in his first exposure to big-league pitching, allowing him to post a strong BA and OBP right out of the box. He should also post a reasonable FB% and has the raw power to do something with it, but he appears to be an adjustment away from realizing his full potential. Citizens Bank Park is power-friendly in its own right with a 107 HR factor for RHB last season per Baseball Prospectus, but nothing compares to Reading. This author expects something like a 20 HR full-season pace this year: not terrible, but not special.

Bohm's six steals last year came with four CS, a success rate that probably means he won't receive a green light in Philadelphia. He also hit sixth in his MLB debut, a lineup role that fantasy owners would love to see improve before investing too heavily. Unfortunately, there are whispers that Bohm may not even get to play every day at first because the club still wants Scott Kingery to figure out what ails him.

Still, it'll be far too late to add Bohm on waivers once his role is solidified. The prudent play is to add him while his Yahoo! ownership rate is just 17% and hope that he earns a lineup slot where his BA or OBP can make a meaningful contribution to your team's performance. If the big power breakout comes this year, that's just gravy.

Verdict: Champ (based on advanced plate discipline and hit tools with power potential)

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